Let's look at the EU gas situation (ex Serbia, Ukraine, Norway, CH). Overall, the seasonal %-fill for EU members (below) is lowest in a decade (yellow line). That will not change as we show below. Train left the station.
Meanwhile, the withdrawals of natural gas are coming in seasonally the earliest in a decade! Again, yellow line. If that trajetory (in GWh/d) remains, EU gas prices will hit record soon again. IMHO, a likely. We will see.
So is the gas coming overproportionally in? Answer: no, overall injection rate (in GWh/d) is in fact seasonally low. Only 2011 & 2012 were lower. However, ...
back in 2011 & 2012 etc., EU used a lot less natural gas (i.e. working gas volume).
Were is the gas seasonally missing? Answer: Austria, Germany (both due to Gazprom), the Netherlands but also Italy. France? Fine, after all they are mainly using nuclear energy :-). Below the Netherlands!
Here is Austria: 56% is the lowest. Only Ukraine (which is gas starved geopolitically by Russia) has less. Austria matters a lot. With Baumgarten, it is gas hub for Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) or 80 million people. Poland looks fine (96%), but rest is low, between 75-86%.
Denmark is also low. Not dramatic at 81% but worth mentioning because it was one of the reasons why the EU runs low on gas. Danish offshore wind farms did not deliver this summer as expected. It just had a below wind season. Period.
Germany is EU's largest gas consumer. It's fill % (below) is seasonally lowest in 10 years. Gazprom has not filled its German "Gazprom storage". I am not competent to speculate why. Is it geopolitics or simply a gas production issue at Gazprom? More insight welcome!
Since the spike in EU gas prices, VVP mentioned he will inject come 9 Nov. One measure is the injection point. Data goes back to 2014. Never been so low! Why? The NS2 pipeline approval in Germany? Not sure it is that easy.
I just don't see the fix in the coming weeks looking at seasonal injection patterns (in GWh/d). Does not make sense to suddenly have gas that is seasonally needed (Russian winter). But maybe I am wrong. Maybe Gazprom can inject 40TWh at will. Certainly no Russian gas expert.
If they can, they should start asap because the weather forecast is for a cold December in Germany. That will not help restrain withdrawal rates. In sum, I don't see the fix for EU gas prices. We will see.
Let me share some real time data on the EU natgas market that are hard to get.
European gas consumption for 28 countries matches last's years to the cubic meter (Oct 2022 - Oct 2023 = Year 2022).
However, consumption remains 17% below 2019/20 season.
Is there a supply issue? Rubbish. The global LNG market is oversupplied from every corner; EU storages will be filled by end of Aug where we sit. We have too much gas.
#TTF 1/4 (in mcm/day and YTD)
Three factors matter why there is less consumption vs 2019/20 season:
1) Milder weather: 70% of total consumption is temperature related. Temperatures are milder, thus Europe consumes 14% less vs 2019/20.
Is that permenant? It sure looks like a trend where I sit. But climate scientists can answer that best.
Households Consumption; 2/4
2) Less power generation: Europe replaces more and more natgas in the grid with solar & wind and in the case of France with better capacity utilisation of its nuclear fleet. That adds up...!
India likes a "GOOD" deal - also in crude oil - and is about to teach Russia a lesson what that means.
Spoiler 1: it's not a pretty one!
Spoiler 2: China & Turkey will learn quickly..!
Let's look at the Indian-Russo crude oil bromance.
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Before the invasion in Feb 2022, Russia exported some 2.8mbpd (55%) of its 5.5mbpd crude to Europe by way of pipeline (Druzhba) & sea transportation (seaborne).
But not just crude oil...
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Russia also sold products such as diesel or jet to Europe for a total of 1.4mbpd in petroleum product exports.
In other worlds, G7 sanctioned as introduced in Dec 2022 required 4.2+mbpd of crude & products to be re-shuffeled in globally. Big numbers!
For now, Red Sea disruptions due to Houthi attacking commercial vessels randomly remains a ton-mile story, not a crude oil story.
Within different shipping segments the picture of diverting cargo around the Suez Canal remains a Container Vessel story, to a less extent also a Product Tanker & Crude Oil tanker story.
Container Vessels owners have been the most consequent in diverting cargo.
Since Nov, the number of container vessels crossing the Suez Canal has collapsed by 80% in both directions.
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Crude Oil tankers from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia; UAE; Iraq; Kuwait; Qatar or Oman) to Europe are also lower but our high frequency data does not yet show a similar collapse.
It also nicely illustrates how changing Russian crude flows (Urals diverted to India & China and away from Europe) have increased traffic through the Suez Canal - good for Egypt as Russian dark fleet vessels will or cannot seek an alternative route to ship oil from the Baltics to India.
Brazil is is an interesting microcosm to study in the oil industry.
It's a large, growing consumer of petroleum products. It's the 8th largest producer of crude oil in Dec 2023 as well as a large producer & consumer of biofuels.
Most importantly, it's energy agency reports the data in detail & timely (unlike most countries globally).
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Brazil's resource wealth (mainly offshore) is well documented but it struggled for years to follow through.
Finally, it does with an exit rate of 3.9mbpd of oil production in 2023. Only the US, SA, RUS, CAD, IRQ, CN & IRN (incl condi; in this order) produced more that month. That's 50% growth since Jan 2018!
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Better still, most such production growth reaches the international market. In Dec 2023, Brazil exported 1.7mbpd of crude oil - an ATH.
Remember, in oil net exports is the key number to measure.
Shall we look at the European NatGas market together?
Will Europe have to freeze this winter, after much mild weather luck last winter?
Will TTF drag coal prices up as last winter?
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Our rolling forecast upfront for those of you with a little ADD:
Best-estimate today, Europe will exit the winter 23/24 in March at or around 40% storage levels (red line) which suggests TTF doesn't have to spike, ceteris paribus. Is it a bear? Neither.
Let me explain.
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Natgas has unique characteristics for a commodity:
Supply is inelastic while demand is highly ELASTIC: Colder temps >> demand goes up exponentially & vice versa.
Not all demand is equal but heating buildings (HH & retail demand) is 65-70% of winter demand (Oct-Mar).