People have been calling $TSLA a "meme stock", so I want to show you in a very simple way why I consider it to be anything but. For one, show me a trillion dollar company sustaining 50%+ revenue growth since it went public 12 years ago: 🧵
What about the future? Tesla has a goal to ship 20 million cars in 2020. That requires them to be growing shipments 41% every year from 2022 onwards. That's a lot slower than they have been historically, but maybe you've bought the lie that Elon makes false promises all the time.
So how many cars did he predict in 2013 that they would ship in 2020? Half a million. How many did they ship? Half a million. And that was with lockdowns keeping their largest factory shut down for part of the year. If not for that, they would have shipped many more cars.
Imagine a CEO predicting that in 7 years in the future, they would grow shipments by over 22x. And *nailing it*. Has this ever happened before?!
This isn't covering their energy (generation and storage) business, that Elon has predicted will match the size of their automotive business, their insurance business, or their upcoming robotaxi business. And let's not talk about the robots...
Now some people will say "how can one company be worth than all the other automotives combined?". Well, even by automotive standards, Tesla includes the dealerships, the gas stations, the service stations, and as mentioned, insurance. It's also the most vertically integrated...
... company in its segment, making more of its cars in-house. It makes its own batteries, chips, hell, it makes its own car seats. And of course it makes its own software. No other automotive comes even close.
In addition, it has more cash than debt, making it the only US automotive (or maybe global?) to be effectively debt-free.
Here's the thing though. The gap is not going to close, because the best engineers want to work for Tesla. Their next most desirable employer? SpaceX. With such a gap in talent, nothing can turn the tide. electrek.co/2020/11/11/tes…
If they accomplish even a fraction of what they're planning, and their track record is solid on that, despite setbacks, they will be the most valuable company in the world, by a mile. And that's why you see their stock growing by leaps and bounds, and it's probably not done yet.
But most of all, every share in Tesla, is an option on the new ideas that will be generated by the most inventive CEO of this century, at the peak of his powers. Everything discussed so far is what we know, but what about the things we don't?
As for why I think Elon matters, it's because he represents a completely different kind of leader. One who believes in humanity, rather than trying to control it.
Or, what I learned from watching @elonmusk and @drrollergator use social media at the Grandmaster level.
Both Elon and Gator come across as effortless, because they are. This doesn't mean they are not refined or purposeful. It means they're doing something else than trying to succeed at social media. Their success is coming En Passant, much like JS Mills described finding happiness:
Let's walk through @jamesheathers latest article in The Atlantic to see if he and his collaborators have been paying attention to the criticism of their work.
The subtitle is already setting the stage: "Claims about the drug are based on shoddy science—but that science is entirely unremarkable in its shoddiness."
If I am reading correctly, this is saying that both "the science behind ivermectin is shoddy" and "that's pretty typical".
Does that mean that he'll come out and just say "don't trust most/any medical science"? I find that hard to believe, but let's see what we see.
More recently, I've come to understand that the dream of an objective truth teller is just that: A dream. Counterintuitively, the epistemology of journalism must embrace humility and wear its bias on its sleeve if it wants to regain some trust.