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Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
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5 Nov, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Well they’ve called a vote, I’ll just assume no drama from here on out and then take a series of big sips of coffee for the rest of the evening
[spits entire venti] WHAAAAA—-?
Well I’ll start sipping coffee again then
Ok I’ll take that next giant sip of coffee
Whaaa????
Oh ok, there it is [giant chug]
ppdffffffttttttt

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More from @BenjySarlin

Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
2 Nov
Manchinometer a little greener today, per @GarrettHaake and @frankthorp: "My goodness, we're agreeing on childcare, we're agreeing on pre-K, we're agreeing on homecare...And we're working on climate very progressive, I think in a good way and we'll get something done I believe."
Manchin said he pointedly did not sign off on BBB framework because he had outstanding issues, but also emphasizing points of agreement. It's a little confusing, because if his concern about temporary programs is real then childcare/pre-k is a huge disagreement. But not clear yet
More on this: "Basically things that would run out in 10 years makes that a much more expensive piece of legislation than what we’re seeing it is right now. Maybe they’re thinking that it’ll just expire and nothing will be done or extended. I don’t know. We’re working through..."
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
20 Oct
. @MattBruenig digs into the D's current child care plan, which boosts wages for workers, but doesn't add benefits for higher income families for the first 3 years. The danger is a huge short-term spike in child care prices for people who don't get aid. peoplespolicyproject.org/2021/10/20/dem…
A spox for HELP cmte responds to Bruenig: "The requirement to ensure workers are paid a living wage has a three-year phase in, similar to the benefit phase-in for parents. The spike in wages will mirror the increase in subsidies for families...."
"...during the transition years, there are quality and supply grants to support providers directly. Moreover, Brueing’s ‘solution’ is flawed, and will actually have the opposite of effect of what we are trying to accomplish..."
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
8 Oct
This is great, like a whole year of politics twitter distilled and critiqued (that's a better thing than it sounds, I swear)
The one thing I'd mention is that there are huge broad political trends Shor is great at identifying, but the reason so many "this is what the next 10 years look like" predictions fail is that they're constantly overtaken by events.
Changes in party demographics have had a huge influence on what those parties want and do in office, for example. But electorally, they're small potatoes versus 9/11, Iraq, the Great Recession, COVID, even Afghanistan now, etc etc etc. And those events also remake the parties.
Read 5 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
30 Jul
The most controversial part among R's of Mitch McConnell backing infrastructure is whether it helps or hurts Democrats trying to pass their $3.5T megabill.

The key q here is how likely R's think Manchin/Sinema are to kill it and under what circumstances. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The anti-deal take is shared by folks like Trump and Cruz and articulated here by @philipaklein. D's say the two bills are linked and must pass in tandem. If you pass one, you're triggering the other one. If you kill it, you might blow them all up. nationalreview.com/corner/joe-man…
R's got VERY excited, for example, when Manchin said this during talks
Read 8 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
21 Jul
. @Nate_Cohn is right lack of resistance to Biden's economic agenda is a big deal. But I think even he undersells the scale of the policy, which may also affect the politics. It isn't just "infrastructure," it's climate, health care, education, taxes... nytimes.com/2021/07/20/us/…
In Obama era, the theory was presidents have a unique ability to focus on ONE big sweeping reform, barn storm the country gathering support, and tell Congress to hammer it out. That's how ACA worked. Biden is different....
D's seem to be almost borrowing from Trump's playbook of doing too many controversial things at once for opponents to focus on anything. Items that individually would be career-defining in past WH's like universal pre-K are afterthoughts right now that barely even get discussed.
Read 9 tweets
Benjy Sarlin Profile picture
6 Jul
What’s keeping democracy scholars up at night: An overturned election.

A party remade by Trump’s 2020 election lies could be much harder to stop in 2024.

“We should not pretend these dangers are fantastical or that these are absurd hypotheticals”

nbcnews.com/politics/polit…
In 2020, a handful of GOP officials in key roles stood up to an all-out campaign to throw out the election results and install Trump as president again.

Will they still be there in 2024 if affirming those election lies is the key test in GOP primaries? washingtonpost.com/politics/repub…
. 46% of GOP support state legislatures overturning 2020 vote, per research by @leedrutman.

Once that’s on the table, you get to scary places real quick. For one it creates a perverse incentive to run a botched election in order to justify politicians deciding results later. Image
Read 4 tweets

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