We'd expect it to elect 33 R and 23 D, with the current Senate split 34R-22D. It would have only 1 competitive seat.
It has 16 districts with a BVAP over 40% and 1 with an HVAP over 40.
This map gets the same grades as the prior map draft, would elect the same number of Senators from each party, has the same number of competitive seats, and has roughly similar minority composition numbers.
Note that the use of the ensemble to evaluate maps with four or fewer districts risks obscuring the influence that a single district change in either Partisan Fairness or Competitiveness can make to overall letter grades. (1/5)
And, more importantly, this matters to how residents who live in these states will experience these maps. Letter grades, in the cases of extremely low-district states, should be considered secondarily to other metrics provided. (2/5)
It is important, in these instances, for mapmakers to consider other criteria, such as Communities of Interest, Minority Composition, and state-specific criteria, in both line drawing and evaluation. (3/5)
It has three competitive seats that all lean R (OH-7 (Medina and Ashland), 10 (Dayton) and 14 (Youngstown)), but in certain years, could elect a Democrat.
It has one district with a BVAP over 40% (OH-11, Cleveland). OH-3 (Columbus) has an MVAP over 40%.
We have grades out for the Utah legislature's proposed maps. These maps are going to a public hearing on Monday, so folks in Utah should speak up about what they like and don't like in these maps.
It's important to emphasize that our ensemble is less useful in states with four or fewer districts - it's really important that folks look at other factors, including Communities of Interest, like those gathered by @Representable_ here: representable.org/map/ut/
The Michigan Independent Redistricting Commission continues its work, having released several new draft maps for public comment. They will be voting on these maps on December 30, so we encourage Michiganders to speak up about what they like and don't like in these drafts.
North Carolina's special session on redistricting continues and we've got report cards out for the latest iterations of the state house and state senate maps, as well as a reminder of our report cards for the Congressional map.
Ohio is starting its debate of new Congressional maps. Both the House and Senate Republicans released versions today (neither of which were provided in shapefiles) and while we're waiting on a conversion of the Senate version, we wanted to post our Report Card for the House.
It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness, and a C in Competitiveness and Geography.
It would elect 12R-3D delegation, though OH-1 (Cincinnati) is very close and could easily elect a Republican some years.