Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
Nov 6, 2021 19 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ #oversterfte Netherlands: The observed mortality rates from EMA Pharmacovigilance (C19 vax) look bad, but in a range that shouldn't show up in the total mortality. It would be a disaster if it did.

What we need are mortality rates by cause and age (e.g. cardiac...).
2/ NL 15-19 years: nothing to see, except MH17 incident 2014.
3/ NL 20-24 years: nothing to see here, except MH17 incident 2014.
4/ NL 25-29 years: nothing to see here. MH17 incident 2014 still visible above the normal rates.
5/ NL 30-34 years: nothing to see here. MH17 incident 2014 still there.
6/ NL 35-39 years: nothing to see here.
7/ NL 40-44 years: nothing to see here.
8/ NL 45-49 years: nothing to see here.
9/ NL 50-54 years: nothing to see here.
10/ NL 55-59 years: nothing to see here.
11/ NL 60-64 years: nothing to see here. Seasonality starts to get visible in this age group.
12/ NL 65-69 years: seasonality visible. Also the sharp but short peak of the first C19 wave. But not at amplitudes that would justify a general panic.
13/ NL 70-74 years: seasonality visible. Sharp but short peak of the first C19 wave. The 2020 spring peak was higher (but shorter) than the typical flu wave. The total peak area is comparable with the 2018 flu season. The 2nd 2020 autumn wave was longer.
14/ NL 75-79 years: seasonality visible. Sharp but short peak of the first C19 wave. The 2020 spring peak was higher (but shorter) than the typical flu wave. The total peak area is comparable with the 2018 flu season. The 2nd 2020 autumn wave was longer.
15/ NL 80-84 years: seasonality visible. Sharp but short peak of the first C19 wave. The 2020 spring peak was higher (but shorter) than the typical flu wave. The total peak area is comparable with the 2018 flu season. The 2nd 2020 autumn wave was longer.
16/ NL 85-89 years: seasonality visible. Sharp but short peak of the first C19 wave. The 2020 spring peak was higher (but shorter) than the typical flu wave. The total peak area is comparable with the 2018 flu season. The 2nd 2020 autumn wave was longer.
17/ Conclusion for 2021:
1) Seasons start at different times--> little can be said now for 21/22 season.
2) The background is higher (even in the young) than any potential vax signal. It would be a disaster if vax would be visible in total mortality.
3) We need data by cause.
18/ To assess any vax safety issues in detail we need:
4) mortality figures by cause, gender and age bin for the young cohorts(<65), e.g. cardiac events.
5) IC data by cause, gender and age for the young cohorts (<65) e.g. cardiac events and thrombotic events.
19/ Source NL mortality data:
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/datab…

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More from @orwell2022

Nov 11
1/ Deutschland, die Energienarren der Welt: Thread.

Hier ist die Preiskurve (31 Tage, stündlich). Kaufe teuer, verkaufe billig. Bottom Nailers (oder auch Narren). Angeblich importieren sie, weil es billiger ist? Nein. Die Sonne scheint eben nicht nachts. Image
2/ Quelle: Agora Energiewende – de facto der Familienbetrieb der Grünen. Man sieht sofort, was los ist: Deutschland, auf einem Irrweg, in bestem Stil echter Narren. Verkaufen billig, kaufen teuer, alles im Namen der „Rettung“. Klar, wer nachts Sonne braucht, zahlt eben drauf. Image
3/ Jetzt wierholen wir zusammen, wie echte Hofnarren:

„Importieren ist billiger“
„Schweden hat versagt“
„Lauterbach rettet Leben“
@roberthabeck for Chancellor. Ab hier anders. Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 7
1/ The use of the BI (bigness index) to classify rural/urban areas is flawed. Landsat-derived GHSL BU (Global Human Settlement Layer Built-Up) data shows the rural curve (in green 🟩) consistently trailing the urbanized GHSL BU data (10% BU = typically for small towns 🟧). Image
2/ The Bigness Index (BI) is not only a poor parameter but outdated. Even Kabul Airport shows up with BI=0.

Shown below: GHCN stations labeled BI=0, highlighting those with 2% 🟠 and 10% 🔴 built-up areas in 2020 (from the EU-GHSL).

Image
3/ Analyzing further: nearly half of the stations are classified as rural (BI=0). This is complete nonsense, as the GHSL built-up percentages 2020 for these stations clearly indicate. Nearly all are, in fact, urban—which explains why they see no difference to officially urban. Image
Read 32 tweets
Oct 1
1/ Climate stripes - the origins.

Can we do better than Ed Hawkins? Yes, we can.

The perfect smoothed climate stripe, maximizing color pivot for ultimate fear manipulation.

Perfection—better than the original. Or in other words: how to manipulate your mind. Image
2/ Here’s how it’s done:

1 Pick a highly urban(izing) place: Stockholm.
2 Calculate anomaly.
3 Maximize range.
4 Apply LOESS for max color pivot (=mindfuck)

Note: UHI in Stockholm is ~2°C. Never mind that—the goal is to manipulate your minds.


Image
3/ Now let's try GOTHENBURG. Hold on a second... what's happening? It looks like we've accidently landed in the US Midwest—in the middle of nowhere, where hockey sticks don't flourish. Nice flatliner we have here, just like CHAMA.

Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 10
They're trolling / insulting. The request was clear: compare ERA5 2km / @meteoblue with @AEMET_CValencia sensor at an hourly level. If they match at night, cloudy days, winter, but the sensor shows higher T in summer clear skies / no wind / day 👉 sensor is heat-biased. So? Go.
Thanks, @meteoblue. Normal conversation can be so easy. If the Spanish gentlemen would now provide access to their hourly station dataset, we can overlay it with the fine-grid ERA5 2km hourly product and see what's going on. Does that sound like a way forward @AEMET_CValencia ?

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@meteoblue @AEMET_CValencia He clearly doesn’t understand their response nor my request. At this stage, I just want him to provide THE HOURLY DATA. What the answer actually means is that the 30 km cell is more representative of the region’s climate—yes, it’s better than the station. Well done @ChGefaell 👍.

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Read 10 tweets
Sep 3
1/ Such places have no credibility for accurate bias free measurements. It's the opposite of a stable environment and per default a diesel powered urban expedition place. We see how the melting starts around the airport and the town.

How to measure? 👉 open.substack.com/pub/orwell2024…


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2/ Here we see another example (Alaska). Russian high-lat regions are among the worst. It's a deception to take measurements from such places and claim that you've done 'science' while actually just picking up dirt. Why not Everest dirt basecamp next?
3/ It escalated quickly. Similar to @BMcNoldy from Miami, master's student @Daaanvdb also used airport data instead of professional equipment, like what's available at @UNISvalbard.

Let's do better and use proper data from a better looking station.


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Read 19 tweets
Jun 27
1/ As mentioned, Europe is too urbanized for climate measurements. Shown below is just the UHI effect. As mentioned, ANY type of urban landscape altering increases surface temperatures as well. The Netherlands and Benelux regions are all fully biased and unfit for climate science
Image
2/ As mentioned previously, North Sweden is the most credible place for climate measurements due to its development, peace, and ability to capture high-quality data. Besides Sweden, only the US provides reliable historic data. All other regions are not credible and biased today. Image
3/ Source: YCEO Surface Urban Heat Islands: Spatially-Averaged Daytime and Nighttime Intensity for Annual, Summer, and Winter.

It's from 2003. Now it's even more urbanized = worse.

developers.google.com/earth-engine/d…
Read 12 tweets

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