Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review
tl;dr
* The positive trends in the data continue
* And now kids are vax eligible!
* But vax locations are problematic
* Also, we appear to be plateauing
* What's in store for the Winter?
1/
Covid Wk-In-Review
tl;dr
* The positive trends in the data continue
* And now kids are vax eligible!
* But vax locations are problematic
* Also, we appear to be plateauing
* What's in store for the Winter?
1/
Since October just ended, let's look back at monthly trends.
* Avg daily cases dropped 73%, from 554 to 149
* Positivity dropped from 16.0% to 5.1%
* Deaths were up slightly to 194 (remember, this is a lagging indicator)
* New vax's dropped to record-lows
2/
* Avg daily cases dropped 73%, from 554 to 149
* Positivity dropped from 16.0% to 5.1%
* Deaths were up slightly to 194 (remember, this is a lagging indicator)
* New vax's dropped to record-lows
2/
Here, you can see this year compared to last year.
At this time last year, cases were about 3x higher than they are now.
But the summer peak happened later this year, as did the fall drop. At this point last year, cases had already been rising for a month.
3/
At this time last year, cases were about 3x higher than they are now.
But the summer peak happened later this year, as did the fall drop. At this point last year, cases had already been rising for a month.
3/
Our case rate has fallen consistently and dramatically over the past month and is down to 8.4 per 100k.
But it appears to be plateauing.
And that's a concern. It's still nearly 3x higher than we were at before delta hit this summer.
4/
But it appears to be plateauing.
And that's a concern. It's still nearly 3x higher than we were at before delta hit this summer.
4/
So the big question is this:
What will the winter look like?
5/
What will the winter look like?
5/
Just 54% of the local population has been vax'd.
And while official numbers say that less than 16% have had covid, we know we missed cases bc of low testing. I estimate that around 43% were infected - and so have some immunity.
That's 97%, minus the overlap, so 85-90%?
6/
And while official numbers say that less than 16% have had covid, we know we missed cases bc of low testing. I estimate that around 43% were infected - and so have some immunity.
That's 97%, minus the overlap, so 85-90%?
6/
When we think about winter, then, there's a question of "waning" immunity.
Half of those who've been vax'd were vax'd by early April. That's six months ago, which is when the booster is recommended (for some).
7/
Half of those who've been vax'd were vax'd by early April. That's six months ago, which is when the booster is recommended (for some).
7/
The good news about "waning" immunity is that, while we may have fewer antibodies over time, the ones we have now are better and stronger.
It's a question of quantity versus quality.
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
8/
It's a question of quantity versus quality.
theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
8/
But those with weakened immune systems - either from age or underlying medical conditions - need the extra boost.
Same with those who have more risk of exposure because of work or living conditions.
9/
Same with those who have more risk of exposure because of work or living conditions.
9/
This is why it would be great if we knew how many booster shots were being given.
The more boosters, the less likely we'll see a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths over the winter.
10/
The more boosters, the less likely we'll see a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths over the winter.
10/
But "natural" immunity from infection also "wanes." And so we still need to see those who had covid but who haven't beeen vax'd, get vax'd.
11/
11/
The very good news is that kids can now get vax'd.
Finally.
But I don't understand the strategy here. We've had months to plan for this. And yet, per vaccines.gov, this is the map of where vaccine appointments are located.
Wtf, y'all?
Seriously, wtf?
12/
Finally.
But I don't understand the strategy here. We've had months to plan for this. And yet, per vaccines.gov, this is the map of where vaccine appointments are located.
Wtf, y'all?
Seriously, wtf?
12/
I just booked an appointment for my youngest. We live near Crosstown. But the closest location is 7 miles away.
Seriously, wtf?
Just look at this map - and try to make an argument that they care at all about vaccinating Black kids and/or kids living in poverty.
13/
Seriously, wtf?
Just look at this map - and try to make an argument that they care at all about vaccinating Black kids and/or kids living in poverty.
13/
Of course, this map represents all the places you can make appointments online for vaccines.
So maybe they think wealthy people are more likely to do that - and so maybe they are planning on offering walk-up events in low-income communities?
But, no, that's not happening.
14/
So maybe they think wealthy people are more likely to do that - and so maybe they are planning on offering walk-up events in low-income communities?
But, no, that's not happening.
14/
The only place in all of Shelby County where they are offering vaccines w/o an appointment is at the health department.
That's 9 miles from the families in Frayser who live near the school where I work.
But at least they are offering times after school now.
15/
That's 9 miles from the families in Frayser who live near the school where I work.
But at least they are offering times after school now.
15/
Bc the health dept vax site was initially only going to be open weekdays, 8:00am-4:30pm.
Since schools don't get out until either 3:15 or 4:15, kids would basically have to miss school to go get vax'd.
But then parents would have to take off work.
Also, transportation?
16/
Since schools don't get out until either 3:15 or 4:15, kids would basically have to miss school to go get vax'd.
But then parents would have to take off work.
Also, transportation?
16/
Anyway, we could do better.
And the fact that we aren't seems intentional at this point.
17/
And the fact that we aren't seems intentional at this point.
17/
Speaking of could have done better, check out covid deaths in the US & UK compared to those in South Korea.
That's a lot of blood on our hands as Americans.
18/
That's a lot of blood on our hands as Americans.
https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1456709897874251779
18/
And the situation in Europe right now makes me more concerned about the coming winter than I was before I saw these data.
It is essential that we vax up. We need to reach un-vax'd adults & kids, while also pushing as many boosters as possible.
19/
It is essential that we vax up. We need to reach un-vax'd adults & kids, while also pushing as many boosters as possible.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1456586893370535941
19/
Let me end by celebrating @ministerdbrown, @mrsvjbrown, & the 12th anniversary of @LifeLineSuccess.
I've known them since the beginning. I trust them & vouch for their good work.
And I would encourage you to make a donation.
lifeline2success.org/get-involved
20/20
I've known them since the beginning. I trust them & vouch for their good work.
And I would encourage you to make a donation.
lifeline2success.org/get-involved
20/20
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