Today is Veterans Day, but it used to be called Armistice Day. And it was a mistake to change the name. We should celebrate peace, we should celebrate the end of war, not war itself.
Kurt Vonnegut, born on this day, would agree.
Vonnegut was himself a veteran. He dropped out of college to enlist & serve in WWII. Taken prisoner by the Germans, he survived the bombing of Dresden.
In Breakfast of Champions, he wrote about the name-change from Armistice Day to Veterans Day. It's worth reading today.
"When I was a boy...all the people of all the nations which had fought in the First World War were silent during the eleventh minute of the eleventh hour of Armistice Day, which was the eleventh day of the eleventh month.
"It was during that minute in nineteen hundred and eighteen, that millions upon millions of human beings stopped butchering one another.
"I have talked to old men who were on battlefields during that minute. They have told me in one way or another that the sudden silence was the Voice of God. So we still have among us some men who can remember when God spoke clearly to mankind.
"Armistice Day has become Veterans’ Day. Armistice Day was sacred. Veterans’ Day is not.
"So I will throw Veterans’ Day over my shoulder.
"Armistice Day I will keep. I don’t want to throw away any sacred things.
"What else is sacred? Oh, Romeo and Juliet, for instance.
"And all music is."
• • •
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tl;dr
* The positive trends in the data continue
* And now kids are vax eligible!
* But vax locations are problematic
* Also, we appear to be plateauing
* What's in store for the Winter?
1/
Since October just ended, let's look back at monthly trends.
* Avg daily cases dropped 73%, from 554 to 149
* Positivity dropped from 16.0% to 5.1%
* Deaths were up slightly to 194 (remember, this is a lagging indicator)
* New vax's dropped to record-lows
2/
Here, you can see this year compared to last year.
At this time last year, cases were about 3x higher than they are now.
But the summer peak happened later this year, as did the fall drop. At this point last year, cases had already been rising for a month.
tl;dr: Good News
* Cases continue to drop, down to 340/day
* Positivity rate, down to 9.3%
* Hospitalizations continue to drop
* Deaths, way up to 76
* Vax's remain low
1/
Here are avg daily cases by report date and test date. And what this says to me is that we finally caught up with the backlog (notice that the big discrepancy b/t the two a few wks back is gone). As a result, reported cases are now back to being accurate.
2/
In mid-Aug, cases were artificially low bc of the backlog. Then, as they caught up with the backlog, cases were artificially high.
But there's reason to believe that the 340 cases/day this week is accurate. It's the lowest since the wk of July 18.
tl;dr: Bad.
* Cases, +1207% over 5wks, from 27 to 349/day (37.2 per 100k)
* Positivity, from 2.4% to a record-high 16.9%+
* Infection rate, 1.32-1.46
* Hospitalizations rising quickly, +72% in 1wk, +142% in 2wks
* Deaths are up too
1/
Perspective.
We are a week away from surpassing our peak from last summer. And that's *with* more than 400k ppl vaccinated.
This is a complete disaster. And the worst part is that it was completely preventable. We have vaccines.
2/
Also, deaths are rising pretty quickly, so much so that they will likely surpass last summer in the next week.
And, again, almost all of these deaths were preventable. Just 3wks ago, we were avg'ing 0.1 death per day. As close to zero as you can get. Now we're up to 2.1/day.
tl;dr: Hold On Tight!
* Cases, +671% over 4wks, from 27 to 206/day (22.0 per 100k)
* Positivity, from 2.4% to 12.8%+
* Infection rate, 1.34
* Hospitalizations & Deaths on the rise
1/
Just look at how daily cases have spiked over the past month. And notice that we've had 3 days straight over 200 cases.
For context, we've only had 1 day total over 200 since March. And the last time with 3 days straight over 200 was Feb6-8.
2/
We were avg'ing just 22 new cases/day on June 30. Today, July 24, we're up to 206/day.
tl;dr: Yikes!
* Cases, +51% over 1wk, +342% over 2wks, from 32 to 94 to 141/day
* Positivity, from 3.8% to 7.8% to 10.1%
* Infection rate, 1.46, highest since March 2020
* Hospitalizations, rising quickly
* Deaths, starting to rise
1/
Look at how sharply daily cases have spiked over the past two weeks, up to levels not seen since the first week of May.
We've now had 9 straight days with over 100 cases, well over 100 in fact.