THREAD on school learning lost during the pandemic in England:

Summarising this govt report from October - very depressing...
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 1/11
The report looked at learning loss in Primary (yrs 4-6) and Secondary (yrs 7-9) school students during pandemic in Reading and Maths (Primary only) using the standardised Star Assessment method which accounts for age.

What did it find? 2/11
Firstly, they assessed loss in Oct 2020 after initial long lockdown & again in July 2021. There was a lot of lost learning initially - and some catch up since so things are better by summer 2021 than they were, but kids have *not* caught up (which would be zero lost months). 3/11
Children in *primary* schools with higher rates of absence due to Covid suffered a lot more learning loss - community with less covid did better.

Primary school maths was hit harder than reading. 4/11
Interestingly, there was less of an effect in secondary schools - they were all hit by similar amounts.

Perhaps because reading is less affected by online learning once for secondary school children (more able to learn independently)?

But still a lot of lost learning. 5/11
Breaking it down by deprivation (using free school meals (FSM) as proxy), bigger loss for primary FSM kids in both maths and reading.

In secondary schools, non FSM pupils caught up a bit but FSM pupils lost *more* learning by July 2021 6/11
Regionally, there was a lot of variation in lost learning for primary schools - and a lot of variation on how much was caught up! Some areas (e.g. London) doing better in catching up than others. Much more catch up in primary than secondary 7/11
Also, the UK has spent far less on catching up per pupil than some other countries - despite the government's extravagant promises.

source: Comparing education catch-up spending within and outside the UK - Education Policy Institute (epi.org.uk)

8/11
It's hard to conclude anything other than that our govt's persistent lack of control of Covid, lack of support for schools trying to prevent transmission and lack of support for pupils learning online or catching up is failing millions of schoolchildren. 9/11
Finally - before the trolls weigh in - @IndependentSage has *always* advocated for schools that are *open* in as Covid-safe a way as possible. The most effective way is keeping community rates *low*. England has notably failed & schools have been very disrupted since 2020 10/11
AND where schools were moved online because of out of control covid or where children had to isolate as cases or contacts, we advocated for multi-layered support for for disadvantaged communities & catch up funding. 11/11
PS thank you to Bob Hawkins for producing the slides!

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More from @chrischirp

5 Nov
LONG THREAD on UK Covid situation...

cases, hospitals, deaths, long covid, variants, global - all dealing with consistent themes.

TLDR: "living with" with high cases is bad idea. Especially while boosters and teen vax is slow and new viral treatments are on the horizon! 1/25
There was a reduction in both LFD and PCR tests over half term, so take drop in reported cases with a grain of salt over half term.

Cases were flat or dropping in each nation, but apart from NI, PCR positivity was flat or increasing. 2/25
Two weeks ago I said we should see rates in kids fall over half term & that teen vax might put a brake on it too.

So cases started dropping the week *before* half term and accelerated over half term. 3/25
Read 27 tweets
2 Nov
Short THREAD:
In the JCVI minutes from 29 June, the committe had modelling evidence from TWO groups showing significant benefit in vaccinating teens - including preventing deaths.

They dismissed it.
Two models from Warwick and PHE showed "substantial reduction in hospitalisations of 12-17 year olds". Both models estimated vax would prevent 3 deaths per million kids vaxxed. (2/million in prev healthy children).

Warwick also showed LARGE REDUCTION in INFECTIONS.
The JCVI remained unmoved. They thought opportunity costs (affecting school vax progs) & potential harms from vax (although they earlier acknowledged vax myocarditis was q mild) outweighed benefit (but no numbers to support).

They also touted natural infection as better *again*
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
QUICK(ISH) THREAD ON UK COVID UPDATE:

TLDR: cases dropping (partly but not wholly a half term effect), but hospital admissions & deaths rising (in England). Vax still not fast enough.

1/13
Vaccination: NI v behind on boosters *and* highest rate of unvaxxed.

England v behind still on 12-15 yrs compared to Scotland & Wales. Disappointing. 2/13
In terms of speed, boosters are getting quicker but first jabs (teens) are not (in England).

Projecting forward *current* rates, the teen and priority group booster programme won't be done till Feb.

We need to increase availability *and* demand. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
28 Oct
SHORT THREAD: about Covid testing, system strain and potential fall out from Immensa scandal on getting PCR tests...

Am highlighting stuff from @ProfColinDavis , @fascinatorfun , @cfinnecy, @samueljlovett & @Gabriel_Pogrund

TLDR: it's not just Immensa, system is straining 1/11
When you do a PCR test, the most common result is either a positive or negative. But some tests return a "void" result, which can mean a bad sample or bad testing process.
Or an "unknown" result where the test just gets lost in the system 2/11

@fascinatorfun has pointed out that voids are more common if testing capacity is under strain - rushed tests, cutting corners on equipment maintenance or procedures etc can lead to more voids.

Tests also more likely to be lost in a straining system 3/11
Read 12 tweets
26 Oct
THREAD on IMPACT OF IMMENSA SCANDAL:

Here are case rates in 10-14 yrs for the 13 most impacted English local authorities compared to all other local authorities.

The dodgy artificially low case rates are obvious as is massive increase in spread compared to rest of England 1/6
Here are primary school age children who *weren't* doing regular LFD tests and relied much more on PCR tests for symptoms.

The two dips looks as if different authorities in that list might have been impacted at different times. 2/6
The recent increase is *not* people rushing out to get tested. The last data point is 19 Oct - the scandal only broke on 15 Oct. The increases all started before then.

It wasn't just children either - here are their parents' age group 3/6
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
Not only does Wales have a very high case rate at the moment it also has an *extremely high* positivity rate - almost a quarter of people tested are testing positive...
Also -Welsh hospital admissions with Covid are pretty much the same as their *first wave* peak and half their Jan 2021 peak.

In contrast, England is at about a quarter of Jan peak and a third of first wave peak.
You can see a vaccine effect though - severity of illness seems quite a bit less this time around and with shorter stays (so total number in hospital lower at any one time)
Read 6 tweets

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