Regarding Crypto, I've spent about 1800 hours or so now studying this stuff. Granted, I spent 5200 hours studying medicine over the same length of time back in the day, but there's more to learn in medicine and more at risk there. But here's what I've learned along the way:
1 - Every "expert" is guessing to some degree what's going to happen. Not a single person "knows" and if they claim they do, they're wrong more often than right. I keep a spreadsheet on predictions of the gurus I follow--no one has beat >40% accuracy in the last 14 months
2 - When making predictions the one thing that I have yet to see fail, at least for BTC, is the theory of lengthening cycles and diminishing returns #ITC. This won't predict when to jump in or leave a market, but at least can help you not get rekt
3 - It is true that when everyone says one thing, the market usually won't do it. The market does what the market wants and doesn't care about your TA. It doesn't care if you're in a bull pennant or a rising wedge or H&S. Crypto can follow patterns, but it doesn't respect them
4 - If you follow an "expert" because they flex, whether they're flexing their lambo, their bored ape, their watch collection, or their latest trip to a luxury villa, you are following for the wrong reason. Lots of experts got early and got lucky. A few consistently do well.
5 - Leverage is not your friend. Leverage can be a tool, but the moment you think it's your friend, you will lose your shirt. While CT scoffs at traditional investors who cite Buffet's #1 rule: Don't Lose Money, that rule still applies quite well to crypto.
6 - I cannot emphasize enough the importance of DYOR. When you buy crypto on someone's rec, you have no idea their true motivation and are hoping for gains and that they want you to make gains. Would you buy real estate like that? Then don't do it in crypto.
7 - You can hit home runs every few games or you can consistently have a high OBP. Choose your risk comfort to choose your strategy and don't waffle. You may not moon with a DCA in and DCA out plan, but you also will not get destroyed.
8 - Find friends. It's so helpful to have someone similar to you to bounce ideas off of. I do not think it's wise to share your crypto portfolio with those not in similar shoes. But a good pal in the same boat is worth an infinite amount of internet info
9 - Tech analysis is bad for most, ok for some, and good for a few. But it can make immediate calls. On chain data is good for most and excellent for some. But it often misses short term moves. Choose how you use the data carefully.
10 - Above all, be patient. FOMO is enemy #1. The market will come back. Learn from your own mistakes. Journal it. Analyze it. Use your own data to conquer the next move.
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