Thread by @sajithpai

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1/ There are 3 broad risks in the startup’s journey - product, market and execution risk.

A startup grows from idea to IPO by eliminating these systematically along the way.

Let us examine these.

2/ First, product risk.

Does the product you designed solve a problem for a customer. Does s/he care? Getting to a minimum viable product (MVP) broadly eliminates ~80% of product risk.

3/ Market risk - is there a market for the product you created, or can you iterate to a problem for a paying market? Getting to product-market fit (PMF) is about eliminating this risk. PMF eliminates ~90% of market risk for the then product, I think.

4/ Finally, Execution risk - can you keep feeding and cranking the growth machine, given you have PMF, without f*king up along the way?

5/ Important. Sometimes you can hit PMF and think market risk is eliminated for it to reappear.

PayTM is an extreme example. Market risk reappeared when UPI became bigger and faster-growing. They have had to focus on selling financial services (new market).

Specific investors help founders navigate these risks

- Product risk - angels/accelerators/pre-seed funds/soloVCs
- Market risk - seed funds (At Blume, helping founders move from MVP to PMF is the promise we make)
- Execution risk - Series A+ / growth capital to help you scale.

7/7 This is a simplistic model, but a useful framework for founders to keep in mind.

Would love to hear thoughts. Are there any other bigger risks I havent addressed that doesnt fall into these categories?