The issues that @fortisanalysis founder, @man_integrated spoke about recently piece on why the USA may never recover from the current supply chain disruptions have a historical analog in WW2 military supply chains.

That will be this thread's subject
1/
Intercontinental logistics is never easy. Even more so when there is a thinking enemy of the other side shooting holes in them.

Yet for all that, the US never got the single most important piece right the clearing cargo through ports & beaches.

See the WW2 D-Day example.
2/ ImageImage
In the Pacific theaters, it was far worse.

The tyranny of distance, no/poor infrastructure, bureaucracy, and inter-service politics were bigger foes than the Japanese.

3/ ImageImageImageImage
It also didn't help that the San Francisco Port of Embarkation was the most dysfunctional of WW2.

In addition to a 100 times increase in size & people, it calved off POE in Los Angeles, Seattle Portland, & Prince Rupert.

4/
nps.gov/articles/000/t… ImageImageImage
Imagine trying to inventory and mark for the proper consignee, & move a mess like this.

Which was actually a good day for the San Francisco POE.

5/ Image
Per the NPS San Fran POE link:

"The port and its subsidiary, served by three transcontinental railroads, handled more than 350,000 freight car loads, and employed 30,000 military and civilian employees, not counting the longshoremen who loaded and unloaded cars and ships."

6/ ImageImageImage
Per this link:

"In 1939, the SFPE employed 831 military and civilian personnel. They shipped 48,000 tons of cargo that year. By the end of WW2, in 1945, the SFPE employed more than 30,000 people.

7/
hmdb.org/m.asp?m=70000 Image
...They shipped more than 23 million tons of cargo and 1.65 million soldiers on 4,000 freighters & 800 troopships."

Not mentioned in either link is that the War Dept. fired three San Fran POE directors during WW2.
8/ Image
The last firing happened shortly before the end of WW2, because something needed to be done to logistically support the planned Operation Downfall invasions of the Japanese home islands.

It was the illusion of "doing something."

9/ ImageImageImageImage
The "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" going into Downfall was years in the making. And It was well mapped by a War Dept. investigator in Sept-Oct 1944.

See:

Col. Crosby's report on trip to Pacific Ocean Area and Southeast Pacific Area.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…

10/
Col. Crosby put in the miles and time to investigate everything involved the the Pacific War supply chain. Every major port operation in Adm. Nimitz's & General Macarthur's theater's were investigated & photographed.
11/ Image
In the time before ISO containers & container ships, good warehousing, rail & port operations for break bulk freighters required nets, pallets, roller conveyors, forklifts, cranes and military stevedores.

Who were disproportionately African-American in the Jim Crow era.
12/ Image
The problem that Crosby found in his travels was the lack of skills/supplies/infrastructure to effectively use pallets, roller conveyors, & forklifts.

Material handling equipment (MHE), then or now, required skilled manpower, spare parts & proper infrastructure to use.
13/ ImageImageImageImage
In his visit to Oro Bay rear in MacArthur's theater, Crosby found that despite having fork lifts, pallets & leadership deeply committed to mechanization to save manpower. It simply wasn't happening.

14/ ImageImageImageImage
The meeting tonnage metrics now beat efficient for the future.

Spoilage or theft of offloaded tonnage was not measured.

It was the "Department of Someone Else's Problem."

15/ ImageImageImageImage
Different bases didn't share overages of pallets forklifts with bases lacking them because there was no effective communications nor incentives to do so.

[The parallels with containers & their carriers in the ports of LA & Long Beach today stand out.]
16/ Image
Then there was the real elephant in the pacific supply chain room...inter-service rivalry.

It wasn't simply a matter of the US Navy being in charge, not understanding Army needs & short changing them.

And there was a lot of that.

17/ ImageImage
In fact, A whole lot of that. The USN considered all merchant hulls in it's theater it's property.

No matter if they were War Shipping Administration, War Dept. charter or Army Transport Service. When it came to shipping, the USN was:

"All you bases are belong to us"
18/ Image
And it was more than the old saw of "The Navy gets the gravy while the Army get the beans."

Nope, it was the USN decided what was priority shipping for the theater including the building materials for Army infrastructure.

So the Army didn't get cement.

Literally, see:
19/ Image
Adm. Nimitz and his CENTPAC staff did more to stop US Army infrastructure building in the Pacific than all the torpedoes in the Japanese Navy!

And it went to actively sabotaging MacArthur's operations.

USN stole a complete harbor crft comp meant to land supplies at Leyte!
20/ ImageImageImage
A US Army harbor company w/o it's craft are over trained stevedores. Which was what the USN wanted to slow down MacArthur.

I found that bit of sabotage on pare 79 of the following document:

History of Army Port and Service Command.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
21/
And made sure to confirm it was sabotage by looking up Eniwetok's tugs & lighterage in the following photo clipped document:

Base facilities summary: advance bases, Central Pacific Area, 30 June, 1945.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
22/ Image
And then checking every tug, barge, floating crane and craft against this document:

Navy Seagoing Tugs and Related Craft
researcheratlarge.com/Ships/Misc/194…

23/
Whatever happened to those Transportation Corps watercraft. They were not at Eniwetok in June 1945 despite a huge number of USN lighterage being inoperative.

Nor did they ever make it to Leyte.

24/ Image
While MacArthur's supply issues at Leyte are blamed on Kamikazes & his own disorganization -- the official narrative.

The USN's "Grand Theft Army Watercraft" at Eniwetok played a bigger role in stopping MacArthur's supplies at Leyte than the HMIJS Yamato lead central force

25/ Image
Yet it can be said that Col Crosby's fact finding tour bore fruit for the Pacific Supply Chain in the SWPA.

By Jan 1945 the SWPA shipping regulation system communicated about shipping & port capacity in every base & with the West coast.
cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collec…
26/
Yet for all the effort, the SWPA regulating system didn't fix the problem.

It only managed it.
27/
The heart of the issue was the dysfunction between the USN and the War Department, and especially the service troop impasse in the South Pacific.

The service troop needed for Downfall were Army & belonged to MacArthur, but the USN would not release operational control.
28/
The impasse leading to the "Great Pacific Supply Chain Collapse" during the planned invasion of Japan was broken not by agreement between supply chain stakeholders.

It was broken by the Atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
29/ Image
Just like it will take outside events to make the on-going the "Great World Supply Chain Collapse" irrelevant.

Pray G-d this supply chain collapse requires something much less drastic.
/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

30 Oct
CASEY HANDMER'S BLOG has a hugely important piece on Starship. If a space firm misunderstands this passage:

"A dollar spent on mass optimization no longer buys a dollar saved on launch cost. It buys nothing."

It's doomed

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/10/28/sta…
His blog's comparison of NASA's SLS based Artemis architecture versus a Lunar program based on Starship makes the point.

This is a phase change difference in access to space akin from the X-Atlantic air travel jump from Charles Lindberg to the wide body jet in 5-years.
2/
For the logistical types, these are your current price points:

$100,000/kg for LEO bulk cargo
$1,000,000/kg(+) for deep space exploration.

Starship will do 100 ton (+) chunks for <$10m per launch.

It will be launching several hundred times a year w/in 5-years.
3/
Read 12 tweets
30 Oct
@man_integrated >>Measured by American manufacturing output (given the constraints) during a crisis, I'd say FDR wins in a walk.

Just...no.

FDR did hugely destructive things to the US mobilization with hugely unrealistic production goals in aircraft & tanks that took until 1943 to unsnarl.
1/
@man_integrated In creating this logistical dysfunction he was hugely aided by the US Army war mobilization plan.

Jim Lacey's "Keep From All Thoughtful Men - How U.S. Economists Won World War II" deals with a lot of this FDR Administration dysfunction.
2/
@man_integrated There is a more granular feel is how the FDR's unrealistic goals whipsawed A/C procurement in this Green book:

UNITED STATES ARMY IN WORLD WAR II
Special Studies
BUYING AIRCRAFT: MATERIEL
PROCUREMENT FOR THE
ARMY AIR FORCES
by
Irving Brinton Holley, ir.
history.army.mil/html/books/011… Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
@adachi_austin_ Wikipedia has a useful article on the Jan 28th incident.

It certainly seems to explain the acceleration of IJN aviation technical development by then Rear Admiral Yamamoto. Who served as chief of the Technological Division of the Naval Air Corps
1929-1934
@adachi_austin_ The IJN adapted a US Fairchild radio compass in its A5M Claude, H6K Mavis and "Rikko" Type 96 land-based attack aircraft the Mitsubishi G3M designs.

Radio beacons associated with the Fairchild radio compass were deployed through out the Empire no later than 1937.
@adachi_austin_ The radio beacons were associated with a map grid system applied around Japanese home islands and possessions.

The Western Allies were unaware of the extent of this grid mapping until the Marianas were over run in the Summer of 1944. This grid network was ~decade old by then.
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
This is a thread addressing Chinese military technology innovation today, it's parallels with Imperial Japan in the Mid-1930's to early 1940's period, & the "Great Supply Chain Collapse."

They are related.
1/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4…
The Chinese took two existing technologies, the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) and the Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) & kit bashed them together into a 1st strike nuclear weapon that evades US ICBM trajectory early warning radar coverage.
2/
One can argue about the usefulness of this kit bash.

The one thing you cannot ignore is that it's a highly innovative weapon system design aimed like a laser at a decades old weakness.

A weakness the Chinese have been aware of for its entire existence, via @TheDEWLine
3/
Read 24 tweets
14 Oct
@man_integrated As far as truck drivers go, the graduate degree & Silicon Valley tech head crowds have less than zero understanding of the work load.

It isn't just getting a commercial license for driving & driving.

Loads require different trailers & load plans the driver has to execute
1/
@man_integrated ...per thick federal, state, and company rule books.

Often the driver also has to be an all terrain fork lift operator as well in support of delivering to construction sites.

2/
@man_integrated Truckers carrying HAZMAT loads require additional training for signage, documentation, reporting and routing.

This is all long attention span theater through eye wateringly small text.

3/
Read 9 tweets
13 Oct
@mercoglianos @ltgrusselhonore The origin of just-in-time was with the Japanese. They sourced every down level vendor for an auto factory in the same city and worked to get stable relationships to eliminate as much as possible transaction costs.

When the ISO box came plus massive computer ordering systems
1/
@mercoglianos @ltgrusselhonore ...first retail and then increasingly manufacturing companies tried to make the ISO boxes their warehouses both to save costs and to avoid property taxes on warehouse stock.

The issue is this wasn't cost reduction as much as cost shifting.

2/
@mercoglianos @ltgrusselhonore Continental or intercontinental sized supply chains are about avoiding measurable costs.

There are always disruptions in large supply chains that result in mistimed deliveries of parts that result in the production of Mfg goods w/o those parts.

The extra time required to
3/
Read 7 tweets

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