A tip, America: you’ll soon become familiar with the terms “Suwalki Gap” & “Kaliningrad enclave.” These are two areas every NATO veteran understands as critical flash points.
Russia/Putin are pushing refugees into this area from Belarus, and any misstep by Polish borders forces create the opportunity for Russia to “defend Russians” in K-grad while marching forces into the Baltic countries of Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia (all NATO members).
This has been a strategic goal of Putin, Poland & the Baltics will likely respond, and it will create a requirements for a NATO Article V action.
So, while many cable networks have recently focused on China having mock US carriers as “targets” in a training area (something they’ve been doing for several years as a small part of a long term military transformation plan), in my view Russian actions pose a bigger threat.
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A suicide attack - SVIED or VBIED - is a commander’s biggest threat in these environments. They’re hard to stop, even at checkpoints…because they are already there and can be initiated when found. 1/
The only way to address them is 1) find the cell that is making them 2) constantly change methods at checkpoints 3) have greater standoff 4) limit crowds. All of these were difficult at HKIA. 2/
We had a network of female suicide vest wearers in Iraq that were particularly confounding. Widows of terrorists, group leaders drugged them, convinced them they had nothing to live for, and sent them on their mission. 3/
This - along with the politicians lied, the intel community lied, etc - has been a mantra repeated the last few days on cable news and in print media. 1/
There were certainly LOTS of mistakes over the 20 years of the Afghan war, as outlined in several official governmental reports and well-researched news articles.
There were likely some - many? - mistakes, and maybe even some coverups, corruption, or misleading testimony. 2/
But I'll go on a limb & say the vast majority of leaders - senior, junior, officer & NCOs; governmental officials & reps of State & USAID; reps from the intel community - who served in AFG did the very best they could to serve that nation and its people & represented the US. 3/
The great @barbarastarrcnn just said what I’ve been saying for awhile. In any NEO - especially those that are contested - not all people who want to get out will get out. It will be heartbreaking, but this is a fact associated with these operations. 1/
Given the uptick in movements, I’d estimate there will eventually be close to 100k+ evacuees. The focus in the next few days will be US citizens, SIV holders, and “special evacuee cases.” 2/
Always primary on the commander’s mind in a NEO: how do I get @StateDept consular officials & military forces out before things go to hell. 3/
Thread: This piece by @JRubinBlogger is calm & succinct, and may be helpful to those who may not have closely followed the 20-year AFG war, but are now trying to make sense of what they see now. 1/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
The piece does a fact check on what we’ve seen during the first few days of chaos and dysfunction at Kabul. 2/
I’d add a few thoughts. First, there’s been much talk about the Afghan Army “melting away.” Yes, many deserted…but like in Iraq when their soldiers faced ISIS it was, in many cases, due to a lack of confidence in their AFG government and some senior AFG military leadership. 3/
While we all ponder what may happen next in Afghanistan, @jaketapper provided a deeply moving distinction between the war & the warriors. Those who have friends who fought or died in that country are grieving; we are also distressed by what may happen to Afghan allies. 1/5
We’re all especially concerned about the women & girls who made such progress in the last 20 years. That is especially haunting. 2/5
Beyond that, we must address what we did wrong, how we never completely understood the culture, the tribes, the politics, the motivations of that country, our Afghan partners, and the enemy we fought. 3/5
Ridiculous that the GOP voted against having a hearing on the 1/6 insurrection and some - like you - voted against confirming the electoral college vote. If we want to hold onto our democracy, we need to hold people accountable. (Fixed it for you, @michaelgwaltz ) 1/4
As for Covid, I’m all for an investigation into the origin, as well as that Congressional panel looks into the ineptitude of the last administration and how their actions contributed to over 500k+ deaths. 2/4
Funny, I listened to a podcast with you last week, and the two interviewers were making fun of the Delta variant. Since YOUR district is seeing an uptick, perhaps you may also look into how @FoxNews and others are downplaying vaccinations? 3/4