EU diplomat on today‘s Brexit discussion amongst representatives of EU 27+EU Commission:
„The EU is preparing for the triggering of Article 16 by the UK. There is consensus among EU that such an arbitrary and unjustified move by the UK will be met with a clear European response.”
„The EU is preparing for the triggering of Article 16 by the UK. There is consensus among EU that such an arbitrary and unjustified move by the UK will be met with a clear European response.”
Diplomat adds that there is still hope -but that it’s waning - that negotiations w uk over the Protocol could be successful. He said EU retaliation if UK triggers article 16 would depend on what UK plans to do /2
Would uk government trigger article 16 to please a domestic audience but continue to apply checks on goods on the ground? asked the EU diplomat OR would uk reduce checks or abandon the protocol altogether? In each of those scenarios, the EU response would differ /3
« There are lots of options on the table » the diplomat told me « but each one of them would hurt the UK ». This EU diplomat as others I’ve spoken to, dismiss the government’s stated position that results of the Protocol on the ground in NIreland were unforeseen. EU view .. /4
Is that the Protocol clearly envisaged checks GB-NI . The EU adds that it has since listened to the complaints of people and business in NIreland and has, it says, come up with flexible solutions. UK gov insists EU is still not going far enough to make the Protocol workable /5
EU diplomats say their talk of retaliation against UK if Johnson government triggers article 16 is a lot about EU reputation. The bloc wants agreements it signs with 3rd parties to be respected. If Brussels “allows the Uk to get away with it” as it’s often described .. /6
In EU circles when discussing the Protocol and Uk possibly triggering article 16 - then the EU fears that would embolden China and Russia in their dealings with the bloc. It could also embolden member states already viewed as recalcitrant eg Poland/Hungary/7
Is the EU fear. Clearly though if EU eventually decided to suspend whole Trade and Co-operation agreement with UK - for example if UK government were to abandon the Protocol altogether, that would be costly economically for EU too but consensus in Brussels is that EU wants ../8
To be seen to be prepared to take robust action IF UK action viewed in EU as extreme too /9
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