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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The inflation report came in hot this morning at 6.2%
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┻┳| •.•) it looks a lot like the 1940s
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This is the widest gap on record between the Fed's short term interest rate setting, and year-over-year CPI, including the 1970s.

(We would have to go back to the 1940s to find a similar situation.)
I covered this inflation-vs-rates gap recently on the @YCharts blog:

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More from @LynAldenContact

Lyn Alden Profile picture
11 Nov
All of my equity research over the past 4-5 years can basically summarized with Anakin here. Image
Most of the other asset classes (besides a few like bitcoin) have been even less attractive than expensive stocks, so the stocks just kept going up. That valuation expansion will end eventually, maybe in 2022 or who knows.

For lack of good money, everyone monetized other assets. Image
So I've been overweight equities, trying to avoid the silly ones, and letting it all run. Now eventually, everyone will be so piled into equities that it'll stop working. Individual stocks and sectors will become more separated. Image
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
24 Oct
In terms of the structural US trade deficit, it's often said that the US exports paper to get real goods. We give the rest of the world dollars, and they give us commodities, consumer goods, etc. Image
However, that's not the full picture. The foreign sector then takes those dollars and buys US financial assets (stocks, bonds, real estate), and thus owns a greater and greater share of our productive hard assets. Image
In other words, what the US is primarily doing, is selling our appreciating financial assets for depreciating consumer assets.

It's not a great trade in the long run.
Read 4 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
23 Oct
The TGA chart is so wild to look at.

It's currently down to around $80 billion until they get a debt ceiling resolution. The target level they wanted it at by now is $750B.
Once the debt ceiling is resolved (December?), the Treasury targets a $750-$800 billion cash balance (will they revise that?), meaning they have to issue a lot more bonds than they're spending for, at a time when the Fed is maybe reducing their rate of asset purchases.
I'm looking back through my Feb 2021 thread, with the update being that it's all pushed back half a year due to the debt ceiling (Treasury had to draw TGA down ~$800B more than they wanted).

So, instead of being a 2H 2021 thing, it's a 1H 2022 thing.
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
19 Oct
In the BMC Q3 Livestream today, the CEO of $MARA said several of the largest utilities in North America have teams researching #bitcoin mining and co-location.

In other words, on-site bitcoin mining as a utility load balancer and profit maximizer.🧵
The CEO of $MARA also said he believes that power companies will likely become some of the largest bitcoin miners/hosters over time. I think that's true (in addition to a healthy amount of off-grid miners).
There are always-on sources of power like nuclear, hydro, geo, and then variable power like solar/wind.

Demand fluctuates too.

During times when power supply exceeds demand, utilities need a way to profitably use that power, or they waste it. Enter co-located bitcoin mining.
Read 6 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
16 Oct
Aikido is the Japanese martial art of using your opponent's momentum against them.

I find that it has relevance for online communication. A brief thread.
Aikido is admittedly kind of a shit martial art if you want to regularly win UFC.

Investing time into some combination of kickboxing, submission grappling, and Muay Thai gets you a lot further. Offense, aggression, breaking things, with rational defense as well.
I personally also preferred the aggressive striking style or submission style where possible. It's practical.

In my 12 yrs of fighting and a few years as an assistant instructor, I preferred striking against large opponents, and used grappling mainly against small opponents.
Read 14 tweets
Lyn Alden Profile picture
16 Oct
As a heads up, producer prices continue to push up:
The month-over-month PPI growth is decelerating, but the monthly growth is still elevated in absolute terms:
And the spread between PPI and CPI is now extremely negative:
Read 4 tweets

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