Thread by @dampedspring

$TSLA block 101
20BN for sale where the seller can adjust the order pace and price but must get done. The seller must provide direct information with a two day lag which is then available to all. The size is large but many investors are focusing on the flow.

We all know about the order now. But we just don't know anything about the order of except its remaining size and eventual completion date by either yearend for tax purposes or august 2022 for options expiry reasons.

That leads to a few questions. 1. Does the paper 10b-5.1 have any info? 2. Is end of year a tax deadline?

Let's assume for now that the 15BN remaining will need to be sold by year end. There are 34 days left including today. That means an average sale per day of 440MM. So far the pace has been higher. At 1.6BN per day average. At current pace the order will end on 11/24

Of course the pace could increase or decrease or be volatile around the 440M average needed to complete by year end. The only thing we can estimate is the needed average pace and any patterns that come from the form 4 filings 2 days after sale. Not ez

Secondly this stock is a major trading vehicle for a ton of investors all trying to figure this out and many front running days where sales are likely to be made and buying dips when they think things have gone to far.

I have 4 thoughts. 1. I would short rallies every day as the current pace and the remaining sales are large. 2. The shorts will grow as days and info comes out. 3 the shorts will grow larger than the remaining sales at some pivot point. 4. The sales will end

My current view is to be short. I will amend this view as time and data comes in. It's going to be a great long eventually. Just as it was a great short the morning after the tweet.

Lastly I posted this on Twitter. I have a following and the Heisenberg principle applies