Important paper on deaths in children & young people (CYP) in 1st year of pandemic. Reassuring results for Covid:
- of 12 million CYP in England, 3105 died
- of these, 25 (<1%) were due to Covid
- 99.995% of CYP with positive test survived
However.. 1/6 nature.com/articles/s4159…
..as Dr Camilla Kingdon, the president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said:
Meanwhile, successive lockdowns and social distancing caused far greater consequences “through lost education, mental health, and other collateral damage”,
2/6
"But what we would constantly try to point out – and which some of this data shows – is actually, these are wider issues that are no less detrimental to children and may have a more long lasting impact actually, then the virus itself,”
3/6
Dr Kingdon said children had paid “a very, very heavy price” for the pandemic. And she said the impact was seen in many aspects of their health.
She warned: “You can also see it in community child health services, autism assessments, therapy referrals.
4/6
Prof Russell Viner, professor adolescent health at University College London and author of the paper said: “When you look at this data together, it tells us that the indirect effects of the pandemic on children are likely to be significantly greater than the direct effects.”
5/6
This is a reminder to ensure restrictions to control Covid do not cause greater harm than Covid itself - a basic principle for any intervention in medicine or public health.
Many decisions had to be taken before we had this evidence but we must learn from it for the future.
6/6
A brief thread summarising our current COVID situation and what we can expect going forward - and why - although Covid is by no means over - we should be cautiously optimistic about the coming months:
1/9
First, although it’s easy to forget this given some of the commentary, the situation is so much better now than this time last year when hospital admissions & deaths were much higher and doubling every 2-3 weeks - and we were in lockdown - with all its harms.
2/9
Admissions are now about half & deaths about a third of what they were then and both are falling.
And we have no restrictions; society and the economy are open and unemployment is falling.
So we have less direct & indirect health harm from Covid and also from restrictions.
3/9
@dgurdasani1
Do you really think that someone who has spent their career trying to save lives & put their own life at risk by volunteering to work, unpaid, to save the lives of Covid patients is now trying to justify policies that lead to mass infection, disability & death?
Although it’s tempting to respond in kind, I prefer to assume those who disagree with me are acting in good faith and also want to reduce death and suffering even if- based on my interpretation of the evidence- I believe their policy recommendations are wrong or even harmful.
2/
Of course we may differ on how to achieve that aim, as do other scientists/doctors, and differences are inevitable given the uncertainty of the evidence.
But I would hope that all of us would respect that all are sincere in their intentions.
3/
Seven persistent myths about Covid and lockdowns in the UK / England.
I thought I would put one thread together on what I think are 7 myths that continue to be propagated - mainly by those who, although well-intentioned, always assume that more restrictions are the answer.
1. The UK has had the highest Covid death rate in Europe during the pandemic - mainly due to being late to lockdown twice. (see myths 2 and 3)
Even compared to EU countries, the UK would be 11th on Covid deaths & 15th on excess deaths (20th in all Europe) economist.com/graphic-detail…
2. Thousands of lives would have been saved if we had locked down earlier in the first wave.
Most of the countries with higher death rates (shown above) did lock down early & had small first waves followed by very large second waves.
Discussed more here: telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/2…
To those calling for a return to restrictions, a reminder of some criteria I set out last year that should be used before suppression measures are implemented:
i) Evidence for effectiveness in reducing cases
(particularly in over 60s) hospital admissions & deaths
(1/4)
ii) Evidence that a mandatory approach produces better outcomes than a voluntary one.
iii) Evidence that a blanket approach produces better outcomes than a targeted one. e.g. on adherence, suppression
(2/4)
iv) Evidence for broad public acceptability with high levels of sustainable adherence.
v) Most importantly, that the intervention has been shown through transparent impact-benefit analysis to produce less overall harm. (Health in QALYS, cost per QALY saved.)
Would an earlier lockdown really have saved tens of thousands of lives?
A thread summarising the main points of my article earlier today. (References at the end.)
Many people have claimed that if only the government had ‘followed the science’ last year and locked down a week earlier and closed our borders - as other countries did - we could have saved tens of thousands of lives.
I have tried to look at whether an earlier lockdown really would have reduced our eventual death toll over both waves. I have relied not on the models on which these claims are made, but looked at what has actually happened in Europe over both waves to date.
My final thread of the year - a brief review of the current situation and why I think the govt. is right to resist calls for another national lockdown.
Throughout this pandemic I have tried to stress the twin dangers of fear and complacency -
– excessive fear harms our mental (and overall) health and led to the deaths of thousands in the first wave who were too scared to seek medical help when they needed it. And complacency about the real risks of COVID leads to riskier behavior and increased spread of the virus.
Many recent headlines highlight record numbers of cases and increasing deaths with calls for another national lockdown. And of course it is true that the situation is getting worse but it is important not to panic people by exaggerating the threat but to give the true picture.