Oh, so you think the founder of a huge company might know something? Their success was survivorship bias. Dumb luck! As we all know, Zuck just flipped a coin and this datacenter appeared.
This is in response to the common trope that successful entrepreneurs were just "lucky". There are so many micro-decisions involved in building a company that it'd be quite a trick to simply random walk your way to infinity.
Chance certainly plays a role in many contests, and to a greater degree in investing than entrepreneurship, but to even be in the game in the first place requires some skill.
Put another way: missing one shot is luck, being in the NBA after making many shots is skill.
Yes. There are a series of embedded issues here (management is hard, recruiting talent is hard, raising capital is hard, allocating capital even harder, etc).
But they can only be resolved by making the fallacy utterer into a founder. Try for themselves!
Management of humans is hard to value. How to apportion credit between, say, a factory owner providing instructions, and a factory worker carrying them out?
However, once that owner is scripting robots, the value of management is more clear. It's code.
Sean McMeekin's latest tour-de-force makes a strong case that Stalin should be thought of as the main actor in WW2 — not Hitler or the US. amazon.com/dp/B08F6Z72Q4
One angle he goes into that I hadn't seen elsewhere is that the Soviets *wanted* the Japanese and Americans to fight.
Makes sense, given the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 and the 1939 Soviet/Japanese war in Manchuria! But not that widely discussed. thediplomat.com/2012/08/the-fo…
He unearths some amazing quotes, which of course make sense, but are a new angle on things.
Even under Lenin, the Soviets *wanted* the Japanese to fight the Americans, and the Euros to fight each other. Then they'd roll in and install communism. Which is kind of what happened...
This list has many omissions, of course, but it's directionally accurate. And illustrates a few things.
1) You don't need a US visa to make it anymore. 2) Billionaires will exist no matter what the US government does. Millionaires too. 3) Asia isn't the future, it's the present.
Therefore slogans like "billionaires should not exist" or "every billionaire is a policy failure" actually stem from an outdated American chauvinist view of the world.
No US policy can now stop the founders of the world from finally rising. Because wealth is decentralizing.
We're transitioning from fiat information — it's true because this august institution said so! — to cryptoinformation, which is truth anyone can computationally verify.
The 140 second portrait-mode open source free film is still in its early stages as an art form.
It flips every aspect of the Hollywood model of the 20th century.
Big screen → small screen
Landscape → portrait
120 mins → 140 seconds
Big budget → zero budget
Scarce distribution → free distribution
US-centric → global
View with crowd → view solo
Many have commented on this, and I’ve written about this before, but the full displacement of Hollywood by TikTok, Twitch, YouTube, and co is not yet complete.
Even Netflix and Amazon Studios may be seen as transitional forms, as we move to AI-generated video and VR everything.
The pseudonymous economy is preferable to ritualistic announcements of immutable characteristics. It would be more accessible for the disabled as well.
It’s not everyone’s ideal outcome, but it’s far better than this.