Good morning from day eleventy hundred in the Glasgow Climate Enormo-tent.
Just spoke to a few observers and other sources and the mood is still one of cautious optimism, apparently.
There have been no reports of big rows overnight, as yet, and the hope is that a broadly ambitious text can be steered through the final steps of the process and secure an agreement that would be a significant step forward for the global climate fight.
A new draft text was expected round about now... 👀👀👀
And a raft of technical texts have just been published covering finance, adaptation, and other areas. Things appear to be moving. unfccc.int/documents
There's a new proposal by the president on long term finance, which is an issue that has reportedly been deadlocked for days. unfccc.int/sites/default/…
And a new text on setting a new climate finance goal, which indicates a goal would be set in 2024. unfccc.int/sites/default/…
There's a new plan for a Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the global goal on adaptation: unfccc.int/sites/default/…
And, crucially, there is a long document on Article 6, which has once again been a major source of tension in the talks this week/this decade. unfccc.int/sites/default/…
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Was #COP26 a success or a failure is an absurdly simplistic question. It's a both/and. As @Bankfieldbecky has noted it depends on whether you are looking to relative or absolute metrics.
But it is indisputable progress. It does increase the chances of getting the world to net zero and 'well below' 2C, even if 1.5C remains an enormous stretch, and it starts to at least engage with questions of historic injustice.
It is also a genuine diplomatic success for @AlokSharma_RDG@archieyounguk@camillaborn and the COP26 team. It is hard to see how a stronger deal could have been delivered with the mandates country delegations had.
I understand the impulse to condemn the proposed COP26 agreement as inadequate given the scale of the crisis, but it really is a lot better than its critics are claiming.
The Paris Agreement and the progress it unlocked has, in the space of six years, pulled temperature projections down from circa 3C+ to 2.4C. The Glasgow Climate Pact (assuming it is not torpedoed at the last) effectively validates and builds on the Paris Agreement.
It creates a moment every year when governments will face intense public and geopolitical pressure to strengthen their decarbonisation plans.
Just catching Sharma’s speech as I leave the site. He says the text is ‘clean’. Has a deal been done?
Sharma urges countries to come together. Acknowledges that delegations may now seek opportunity to leverage this moment to get more. He urges them not to, insisting the deal is ‘balanced’.
Sharma says ‘we will succeed or fail as one… the world is watching us, they are willing us to deliver a deal’.
Crucial lines on updating NDCs next year are still in. Enough to let Presidency say 1.5C is still just about alive?
Totemic lines on phasing out unabated coal and inefficient subsidies remains, but with crucial additional reference to support for a 'just transition'.