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Anders Åslund

13 Nov, 12 tweets, 2 min read

@tashecon

The Kremlin is instigating a perfect storm in Eastern Europe as the winter is approaching: Gas war, Migrant war of Belarus against Poland, Lithuania & Latvia, military mobilization around Ukraine & possible Serb Republic secession in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Thanks @tashecon

The West, the EU, UK & US, need to act hard & fast. The worst provocation against Russian aggression is not to react or to react slowly. The Kremlin does respect force & credible threat of force.

1a. The gas war should be easy to combat: Just impose the legislated US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG & the pipeline will rust away in the Baltic Sea & never certify it.

1b. To make sure that Europe has sufficient gas stocks in the future, Gazprom & other suppliers should be prohibited from owning storage in the EU & minimum levels of stocks should be introduced by the EU & checked.

1c. The US has refused to get into the European gas crisis. The US & EU should agree on LNG deliveries to Europe.
1d. The EU should behave as a monopsonist toward Gazprom & collectively cut down its market power.

2a. NATO & the EU should recognize the Belarusian migrant war as a hybrid war & not as an immigration issue. Stop all hybrid warriors as Poland does with full EU & NATO support.

2b. Hopefully, the EU Foreign Council will sanction all airlines & companies involved in trafficking hybrid warriors to Belarus on Monday. All air traffic to Belarus should be sanctioned.

3a. The US has stood up quite firmly in defense of Ukraine against the current Russian military mobilization. The renewed U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership on November 10 is surprisingly strong.
state.gov/u-s-ukraine-ch…

3b. In this critical situation, the Ukrainian government has appointed its most respected member, Oleksiy Reznikov, minister of defense. Today, he is in the trenches in Donbas; early next week in Washington.

3c. What is missing is the EU, NATO, Germany & France. Germany can do nothing more effective for peace in Europe than if the new German government welcomes Ukraine into NATO. It could also start supplying Ukraine with arms.

4a. In the former Yugoslavia, all EU states should agree on starting accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. Today, Bulgaria is the opposing force. Before it was France and the Netherlands.
The EU had better get serious about peace in Europe.

4b. In addition, the EU & US need to have a serious talk with the relevant forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina about maintaining the integrity of that state.
Neglect breeds disintegration.

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More from @anders_aslund

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

6 Nov

Kyiv Post summarizes the Zelensky government circus: "The process of hiring and firing top officials under Zelensky has been chaotic....The disarray delayed crucial reforms in key government sectors, such as defense and medical procurement."
kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…

2. "Moreover, some ministers have left a dubious trail, with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau opening probes into corruption and abuse of office."
“They don’t have a strategy, no one knows why people are hired or fired,"

3. Lawmaker Mykyta Poturaev, who represents Zelensky’s party: “Taran — ineffective, Uruskiy — ineffective, Lyubchenko — corruption, Abramovsky — the inability to combat corruption,”

Read 4 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

6 Nov

Politico has published the long-discussed Biden invitation list to the Summit for Democracy, December 9-10. On the whole it makes a lot of sense. It contains 107 countries, slightly more than half of the world, while Freedom House ranks 91 democracies.
politico.com/f/?id=0000017c…

2. Also some tiny democracies (Liechtenstein, St. Kitts etc.) included by Freedom House are ignored by the US. All sizable Freedom House democracies have been invited. The key question is: What unworthy countries have been included?
freedomhouse.org/countries/free…

3. Three countries stand out as rightly ranked as "not free" by Freedom House, namely Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo & Iraq. These countries do not belong to a democracy summit.

Read 8 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

30 Oct

Let me focus on a few Merkel actions:
1. Facilitated Putin's energy blackmail by allowing Nord Stream 2.
2. Allowed Gazprom to buy much of gas storages in Germany to aggravate his gas blackmail.
3. Blocked military support to Ukraine.

4. Merkel accepted the pro-Russian Steinmeier formula for Donbas, aggravating Russian military aggression.
5. Merkel has persistently blocked Ukraine's accession to NATO.
6. She supported Orban as a member of EPP to dismantle democracy in Hungary.

7. She opposes EU sanctions against Poland while its government is dismantling rule of law.
8. She has done nothing to block US sanctioned KGB general Vladimir Yakunin to run his NGO from Berlin.
9. She has done nothing to expose Putin's prime European agent Schröder.

Read 5 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

28 Oct

It is interesting to see how the billionaires have lost public standing in the US in the last decade & for good reasons.
1. Most pay little or no taxes because they pay congressmen, maximum 14%, while most Americans pay about 25% (Gabriel Zucman).

2. They are sufficiently obnoxious to say that they are only prepared to pay more taxes if the taxes are efficiently used, as if they possess that unique elite judgement (Ray Dalio, Larry Fink & Steven Schwartzman)
marketwatch.com/story/ray-dali…

3. It is becoming increasingly clear that the weak Obama & the corrupt Trump administration facilitated all kinds of unacceptable monopolies. This must stop. The question is only whether the Biden administration is strong enough to carry out the necessary clean up.

Read 4 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

23 Oct

President Putin's speech at the Valdai Club on Oct 21 is actually turning Russian foreign policy advocacy around. He presents himself as a "moderate conservative" who has realized the limitations of globalization, sounding like Viktor Orban & Trump.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…

"First, the coronavirus pandemic has clearly shown that the international order is structured around nation states." = Nation first!
Second, "the scale of change that forces us to act extremely cautiously, if only for reasons of self-preservation." = Don't sanction Russia!

"Third. The importance of a solid support in the sphere of morals, ethics and values is increasing dramatically in the modern fragile world." = Don't come here and talk about human rights & democracy! (words carefully avoided by Putin)

Read 8 tweets

Anders Åslund

@anders_aslund

22 Oct

"Year-end data from the September 2021 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government show that the deficit for FY 2021 was $2.8 trillion... As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 12.4 percent, a decrease from 15.0 percent in FY 2020."

Time to discuss US fiscal reality:
Republicans: The US budget deficit FELL after Trump from 15.0% of GDP in FY 2020 to 12.4% & it is set to fall further under Biden's very humble budget proposals.
Trump was the big waster on unjustified tax cuts for the richest.

I would love to see some serious economic US journalists discussing the US budget deficit year after year in % of GDP & not in meaningless trillions for unknown how many years.
The US public (journalists & politicians) need to become numerically literate!

Read 4 tweets

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