The Kremlin is instigating a perfect storm in Eastern Europe as the winter is approaching: Gas war, Migrant war of Belarus against Poland, Lithuania & Latvia, military mobilization around Ukraine & possible Serb Republic secession in Bosnia & Herzegovina. Thanks @tashecon
The West, the EU, UK & US, need to act hard & fast. The worst provocation against Russian aggression is not to react or to react slowly. The Kremlin does respect force & credible threat of force.
1a. The gas war should be easy to combat: Just impose the legislated US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG & the pipeline will rust away in the Baltic Sea & never certify it.
1b. To make sure that Europe has sufficient gas stocks in the future, Gazprom & other suppliers should be prohibited from owning storage in the EU & minimum levels of stocks should be introduced by the EU & checked.
1c. The US has refused to get into the European gas crisis. The US & EU should agree on LNG deliveries to Europe.
1d. The EU should behave as a monopsonist toward Gazprom & collectively cut down its market power.
1d. The EU should behave as a monopsonist toward Gazprom & collectively cut down its market power.
2a. NATO & the EU should recognize the Belarusian migrant war as a hybrid war & not as an immigration issue. Stop all hybrid warriors as Poland does with full EU & NATO support.
2b. Hopefully, the EU Foreign Council will sanction all airlines & companies involved in trafficking hybrid warriors to Belarus on Monday. All air traffic to Belarus should be sanctioned.
3a. The US has stood up quite firmly in defense of Ukraine against the current Russian military mobilization. The renewed U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership on November 10 is surprisingly strong.
state.gov/u-s-ukraine-ch…
state.gov/u-s-ukraine-ch…
3b. In this critical situation, the Ukrainian government has appointed its most respected member, Oleksiy Reznikov, minister of defense. Today, he is in the trenches in Donbas; early next week in Washington.
3c. What is missing is the EU, NATO, Germany & France. Germany can do nothing more effective for peace in Europe than if the new German government welcomes Ukraine into NATO. It could also start supplying Ukraine with arms.
4a. In the former Yugoslavia, all EU states should agree on starting accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania. Today, Bulgaria is the opposing force. Before it was France and the Netherlands.
The EU had better get serious about peace in Europe.
The EU had better get serious about peace in Europe.
4b. In addition, the EU & US need to have a serious talk with the relevant forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina about maintaining the integrity of that state.
Neglect breeds disintegration.
Neglect breeds disintegration.
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