President Putin's speech at the Valdai Club on Oct 21 is actually turning Russian foreign policy advocacy around. He presents himself as a "moderate conservative" who has realized the limitations of globalization, sounding like Viktor Orban & Trump.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"First, the coronavirus pandemic has clearly shown that the international order is structured around nation states." = Nation first!
Second, "the scale of change that forces us to act extremely cautiously, if only for reasons of self-preservation." = Don't sanction Russia!
"Third. The importance of a solid support in the sphere of morals, ethics and values is increasing dramatically in the modern fragile world." = Don't come here and talk about human rights & democracy! (words carefully avoided by Putin)
Putin does not attack but pities the poor West: "We look in amazement at the processes underway in the countries which have been traditionally looked at as the standard-bearers of progress."
Putin: "Of course, the social and cultural shocks that are taking place in the United States and Western Europe are none of our business; we are keeping out of this." He goes on to compare the West with the Bolsheviks in their intolerance of "opinions other than theirs".
Next, Putin condemns racism as holier than thou: "Countering acts of racism is a necessary and noble cause, but the new ‘cancel culture’ has turned it into ‘reverse discrimination’ that is, reverse racism...Each of us is a human being. This is what matters."
Then he comes to his conservative creed: "This conservative approach is not about an ignorant traditionalism...moderate conservatism is the most reasonable line of conduct".
"Finally...we need to be realistic...In order to achieve a global solution, states and people have to transfer their sovereign rights to supra-national structures to an extent that few, if any, would accept."
= Don't try to impose any limitations on my dictatorship!

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More from @anders_aslund

22 Oct
"Year-end data from the September 2021 Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government show that the deficit for FY 2021 was $2.8 trillion... As a percentage of GDP, the deficit was 12.4 percent, a decrease from 15.0 percent in FY 2020."
Time to discuss US fiscal reality:
Republicans: The US budget deficit FELL after Trump from 15.0% of GDP in FY 2020 to 12.4% & it is set to fall further under Biden's very humble budget proposals.
Trump was the big waster on unjustified tax cuts for the richest.
I would love to see some serious economic US journalists discussing the US budget deficit year after year in % of GDP & not in meaningless trillions for unknown how many years.
The US public (journalists & politicians) need to become numerically literate!
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
Europe & East Asia are going through a major gas crisis. Astoundingly, the EU & the US do nothing. They could & should do so much if they were responsible policymakers.
1. EU should reinforce its energy policy. It has let its reserve requirements slip & suppliers (Gazprom!) should not be allowed to own European storage against the spirit of the 3rd energy package of 2009. Storage & converters are needed for a free gas market.
2. The US & EU should call out Russia for its gas squeeze of Europe. Suddenly, Gazprom stops selling to the European gas spot market & incorrectly claims that is not market manipulation. Have the EU & US lost their voices?
Read 9 tweets
20 Oct
I am no expert on China, but I know a thing or two about economics, communism & transition. It looks as if china is approaching a sudden stop for many reasons.
1. With a GDP per capita of about $11,000 it is approaching a typical middle-income trap as Russia since 2009.
2. China is highly corrupt from the top down as Desmond Shum shows wo well in his wonderful new book "Red Roulette." Minxin Pei did so in his 2016 book "China's Crony Capitalism." Bad governance can deliver high growth for several years, but only in poor countries.
3. The ultimate blow to China's economy is Xi Jinping, who appears a combination of Putin & Erich Honecker, all about voluntarist absolute power and nothing about sensible economics. Each week he makes another mad decision. He is the greatest threat to China.
Read 7 tweets
15 Oct
Absurdly, Servant of the People faction leader David Arakhamia has proposed a law to “temporarily” prohibit private companies to sell gas at commercial market prices restoring the old disastrous post-Soviet policy of subsidization that reforms ended in 2015-16.
2. Arakhamia claims that this gas can be used to the benefit of budget organizations, just as in the old Soviet days. He motivates this policy in a populist fashion as hitting against three oligarchs who produce gas in Ukraine.
3. But who would it benefit? Ukraine’s leading gas trader Dmytro Firtash, who knows how to make money on distorted gas markets. Incidentally, Ukrainska Pravda revealed that Arakhamia traveled on Firtash’s private jet to Vienna in January and February.
kyivpost.com/ukraine-politi…
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Can anybody explain what US Treasury Secretary Yellen means? "Yellen spoke with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to discuss the serious issues raised by the investigation into the World Bank’s Doing Business 2018 report."
"Secretary Yellen expressed that her priority is to preserve the integrity and credibility of the World Bank and the IMF, and for that reason, it was essential that the IMF Board conducted a thorough, fair, and timely review of the findings by WilmerHale."
"Secretary Yellen...noted it is Treasury’s view, in line with other IMF Board members, that absent further direct evidence with regard to the role of the Managing Director there is not a basis for a change in IMF leadership."
Read 7 tweets
6 Oct
Putin today: "gas reserves in many European countries’ underground storage facilities dwindled as a result of the harsh winter in early 2021."
Because much belongs to Gazprom & are filled to only 10-15%.
Gazprom should not be allowed to own EU storage.
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Putin: "the practices of our European partners [are to blame]. These practices have reaffirmed that, properly speaking, they have made mistakes. We were talking with the former European Commission"
How can the EU be blamed for Russian extortion?!
Putin's forecast: "the gas price has broken all historical records. Today it is approaching $2,000 per thousand cubic metres of gas, which is over ten times last year’s average price."
Read 5 tweets

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