Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?
Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early. @jkenney@CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.
2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)
3/
In order to prevent the 5th wave, the spread in elementary schools needs to be addressed. Since September elementary school kids have the highest infection rate among all age groups and it is now growing.
Kids < 12 are 100% not vaccinated
4/
Please @jkenney@CMOH_Alberta this time don't dismiss me, don't send trolls my way, don't call me and others 'fear mongers'.
Instead, please treat this information seriously. And don't let more people suffer and die.
It's easy to prevent the 5th 🌊
From CBC article on Jun 15 👇
Leaders can stop the🌊
We have many minimally invasive tools now:
✅scientific certainty that SARS2 spreads via inhaled aerosols suspended in the air & knowledge how to clean the air
✅supply of high quality N95 respirators (soft comfy ones too)
✅rapid antigen tests
✅vaccines
They just need to be used.
It is on @jkenney and @CMOH_Alberta to use all this tools as much as possible in order to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Good policies prevent the waves.
Bad policies make waves.
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Above I showed not only models, but also real life "experiments" from Europe.
The evidence of what to do and what not to do is extremely clear.
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Oh, so that’s why there are almost no books/novels/short stories/poetry about COVID and the pandemic.
Not because people don’t write them. But because publishers decide not to publish such work.
It is possible to write a good book without erasing the context of physical/biologjcal/social reality:
“Our Country Friends” by Gary Shteyngart
I remember reading two articles early in the pandemic on fading of collective memory (1918 flu, tsunamis) and how the same may happen with coronavirus (yes, back then they called it coronavirus)
Aug 13, 2020: scientificamerican.com/article/the-19…
Babies have the highest SARS2 ICU admission rate among all age ranges.
They should be protected from infection by those around them and those around pregnant people & parents.
1/
Things that'd protect newborns in NICU from infections w/ SARS2, RSV, Influenza
1) Mandatory N95s for staff & visitors (stops short range aerosol transmission) 2) Mandatory testing for RSV/C19/Flu 3) Vaxx requirement C19/Flu & other 4) Medical leadership implementing #1-#3
2/
Safety of newborns (and their future health) hinges on point #4:
i.e. Medical leadership deciding to prevent irreversible health harms to newborns.
3/
Hopeful claims w/o evidence: "thanks to gained immunity reinfections pose minimal risk of #longCOVID"
Scientific evidence: studies that reported on reinfections & LC show that #longCOVID incidence follows (almost too well) the theoretical cumulative risk growth pattern. 1/
For hopeful claims that "SARS2 reinfections pose minimal risk of LC" to be true, observed data points should form a horizontal line (parallel to X axis).
They don't.
Even for those infected only with Omicron subvariants. 2/
Risk increases w/ the # of infections.
Long-term COVID-19 symptoms prevalence per number of infections, reported by StatsCanada, fits perfectly the theoretical cumulative risk growth curve.
Also for infections w/ Omicrons only.
Since 4 years (at least - that’s when I started paying attention to what they say) some 🇨🇦 health officials are feigning ignorance and innumeracy.
It is unserious. It needs to stop.
It misleads ppl & decision makers, leading to misinformed personal decisions & errenous policies
Basic basic basic math:
3% is 1 in 33
5% is 1 in 20
In medical lingo when talking about drugs’ side effects 3% or 5% means ‘common’.
Calling 3%-5% ‘rare’ (especially when dealing with exponential phenomenon) is a serious misinformation.
Misleadingly “reassuring” narrative circulating in 🇨🇦:
“Reassuring: measles outbreaks will fizzle out”
Yes. They will. That’s how measles behaved before it was eliminated.
That’s its intrinsic feature — outbreaks that die out (and come back later)
Grounds for reassurance = 0 1/
Measles was eliminated in Canada.
Now it isn’t.
That’s a fundamental and *categorical* difference.
Anyone understanding epi-math knows it.
It should be honestly communicated.
We crossed the qualitative border btw two “states”: From ‘zero/elimination’ to ‘circulating’
2/
The immediate effort should be to quickly go back to ‘zero/elimination’ state.
‘Elimination’ is a lower energy state. The costs of sustaining it are lower than costs of “controlling” a highly transmissible harmful disease which circulates.
3/