Hey Alberta, @jkenney @CMOH_Alberta
5th time?

Can we pls get off the rollercoaster? Have the true normalcy back? Could you please not make the 5th wave?

Bad future vs. good future👇
All depends on if @jkenney & @CMOH_Alberta decide to use 'light-touch' measures to avoid 5th 🌊
Green ones below👇are light-touch minimally-invasive measures. We are not using them as much as we could. They work better if used early.
@jkenney @CMOH_Alberta -- it is on you to implement them and protect Albertans from 5th wave.

2/
Vaccines alone won't prevent the 5th wave. Countries w/ higher vaccination rate than AB but w/ insufficient public health measures experience increase in cases and hospitalizations.
(No 'decoupling' even in 88% vaxxed Portugal)

3/
In order to prevent the 5th wave, the spread in elementary schools needs to be addressed. Since September elementary school kids have the highest infection rate among all age groups and it is now growing.
Kids < 12 are 100% not vaccinated

4/
Please @jkenney @CMOH_Alberta this time don't dismiss me, don't send trolls my way, don't call me and others 'fear mongers'.
Instead, please treat this information seriously. And don't let more people suffer and die.

It's easy to prevent the 5th 🌊

From CBC article on Jun 15 👇
Leaders can stop the🌊
We have many minimally invasive tools now:
✅scientific certainty that SARS2 spreads via inhaled aerosols suspended in the air & knowledge how to clean the air
✅supply of high quality N95 respirators (soft comfy ones too)
✅rapid antigen tests
✅vaccines
They just need to be used.
It is on @jkenney and @CMOH_Alberta to use all this tools as much as possible in order to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission.

Good policies prevent the waves.
Bad policies make waves.

7/
Above I showed not only models, but also real life "experiments" from Europe.

The evidence of what to do and what not to do is extremely clear.

8/

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

May 9
Babies have the highest SARS2 ICU admission rate among all age ranges.

They should be protected from infection by those around them and those around pregnant people & parents.

1/ Image
Things that'd protect newborns in NICU from infections w/ SARS2, RSV, Influenza

1) Mandatory N95s for staff & visitors (stops short range aerosol transmission)
2) Mandatory testing for RSV/C19/Flu
3) Vaxx requirement C19/Flu & other
4) Medical leadership implementing #1-#3

2/
Safety of newborns (and their future health) hinges on point #4:
i.e. Medical leadership deciding to prevent irreversible health harms to newborns.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
Hopeful claims w/o evidence: "thanks to gained immunity reinfections pose minimal risk of #longCOVID"

Scientific evidence: studies that reported on reinfections & LC show that #longCOVID incidence follows (almost too well) the theoretical cumulative risk growth pattern.
1/ Image
For hopeful claims that "SARS2 reinfections pose minimal risk of LC" to be true, observed data points should form a horizontal line (parallel to X axis).
They don't.
Even for those infected only with Omicron subvariants.
2/ Image
Risk increases w/ the # of infections.
Long-term COVID-19 symptoms prevalence per number of infections, reported by StatsCanada, fits perfectly the theoretical cumulative risk growth curve.
Also for infections w/ Omicrons only.

3/
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-…

Image
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Read 4 tweets
Mar 6
Measles among vaccinated is not a “rarity”, has serious epi implications👇, & health officials ‼️should know it

3-5% is👏not👏rare👏
It means 1 in 33 to 1 in 20 people
Something that has an incidence btw 1:10 to 1:100 is *common*

+spread is exponential



Image
Since 4 years (at least - that’s when I started paying attention to what they say) some 🇨🇦 health officials are feigning ignorance and innumeracy.
It is unserious. It needs to stop.
It misleads ppl & decision makers, leading to misinformed personal decisions & errenous policies
Basic basic basic math:
3% is 1 in 33
5% is 1 in 20

In medical lingo when talking about drugs’ side effects 3% or 5% means ‘common’.

Calling 3%-5% ‘rare’ (especially when dealing with exponential phenomenon) is a serious misinformation.

3/ Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 3
Misleadingly “reassuring” narrative circulating in 🇨🇦:
“Reassuring: measles outbreaks will fizzle out”

Yes. They will. That’s how measles behaved before it was eliminated.
That’s its intrinsic feature — outbreaks that die out (and come back later)

Grounds for reassurance = 0
1/
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/agespecific-measles-mortality-during-the-late-19thearly-20th-centuries/F4D013C76395921C5338067A0BD0278C
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/media/en/publications/Publications/SUR_EMMO_European-monthly-measles-monitoring-February-2012.pdf
Measles was eliminated in Canada.

Now it isn’t.

That’s a fundamental and *categorical* difference.

Anyone understanding epi-math knows it.
It should be honestly communicated.
We crossed the qualitative border btw two “states”: From ‘zero/elimination’ to ‘circulating’

2/
The immediate effort should be to quickly go back to ‘zero/elimination’ state.

‘Elimination’ is a lower energy state. The costs of sustaining it are lower than costs of “controlling” a highly transmissible harmful disease which circulates.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
That's how bad some research on paediatric #LongCOVID is.

In our letter to @JAMAPediatrics we point to obvious & fundamental errors in paper which claims that Post Covid Condition in kids is "strikingly low"

Those errors are so egregious, they should warrant a retraction

🧵
1/

Image
Image
Image
In brief,
What authors said they were going to measure in the intro (the formal WHO definition) was not what they measured in results.
They neither addressed the discrepancy in the paper nor in public.
The work has been platformed extensively.
2/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
Here are links to the paper and our letter.

The flawed paper is open access.
The critique is pay walled.

(That's problematic for the transparency, open scientific discourse, and scientific "self-correction" process)
3/

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…
Image
Read 18 tweets
Jan 20
It seems that we have another coordinated misleading narrative going.

It’s extremely concerning how easily health institutions & MD community are used as an amplifier of scientifically incorrect and harmful narratives (eg. ‘Omicron is a natural vaccine’, ‘not airborne’ etc.)
1/

Image
Image
I wish @CIHR_IRSC would investigate who distributes such messaging/narrative-talking-points in Canadian health decision making circles, and not fall for such manipulation in the future.

2/
@CIHR_IRSC The timing of those posts coincides with Jan 18th US Senate hearing on Long Covid.

The effort of understanding this disease and of raising awareness about it is hugely carried by patients.

3/

cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/patie…
Read 5 tweets

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