Hopeful claims w/o evidence: "thanks to gained immunity reinfections pose minimal risk of #longCOVID"

Scientific evidence: studies that reported on reinfections & LC show that #longCOVID incidence follows (almost too well) the theoretical cumulative risk growth pattern.
1/ For hopeful claims that "SARS2 reinfections pose minimal risk of LC" to be true, observed data points should form a horizontal line (parallel to X axis).
They don't.
Even for those infected only with Omicron subvariants.
2/

Measles among vaccinated is not a “rarity”, has serious epi implications👇, & health officials ‼️should know it

3-5% is👏not👏rare👏
It means 1 in 33 to 1 in 20 people
Something that has an incidence btw 1:10 to 1:100 is *common*

+spread is exponential

https://x.com/davidelfstrom/status/1765078178534715886?s=46

https://twitter.com/globalnews/status/1765130962218668287

Since 4 years (at least - that’s when I started paying attention to what they say) some 🇨🇦 health officials are feigning ignorance and innumeracy.
It is unserious. It needs to stop.
It misleads ppl & decision makers, leading to misinformed personal decisions & errenous policies

Misleadingly “reassuring” narrative circulating in 🇨🇦:
“Reassuring: measles outbreaks will fizzle out”

Yes. They will. That’s how measles behaved before it was eliminated.
That’s its intrinsic feature — outbreaks that die out (and come back later)

Grounds for reassurance = 0
1/

Measles was eliminated in Canada.

Now it isn’t.

That’s a fundamental and *categorical* difference.

Anyone understanding epi-math knows it.
It should be honestly communicated.
We crossed the qualitative border btw two “states”: From ‘zero/elimination’ to ‘circulating’

2/

That's how bad some research on paediatric #LongCOVID is.

In our letter to @JAMAPediatrics we point to obvious & fundamental errors in paper which claims that Post Covid Condition in kids is "strikingly low"

Those errors are so egregious, they should warrant a retraction

🧵
1/



In brief,
What authors said they were going to measure in the intro (the formal WHO definition) was not what they measured in results.
They neither addressed the discrepancy in the paper nor in public.
The work has been platformed extensively.
2/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jamap…

It seems that we have another coordinated misleading narrative going.

It’s extremely concerning how easily health institutions & MD community are used as an amplifier of scientifically incorrect and harmful narratives (eg. ‘Omicron is a natural vaccine’, ‘not airborne’ etc.)
1/

https://twitter.com/gosiagasperophd/status/1748792014391640248

I wish @CIHR_IRSC would investigate who distributes such messaging/narrative-talking-points in Canadian health decision making circles, and not fall for such manipulation in the future.

2/

Cumulative risk of Long Covid increases w/ the number of infections.
Long Covid risk in🇨🇦adults self-reporting 1, 2 or 3 infections ‼️*fits perfectly*‼️ the theoretical cumulative risk curve.
Also for infections only w/ Omicrons.

1/
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-…
"Cumulative risk is the new exponential growth"

I've included the equation on the pic👆. Try drawing your own curve. With 5%, 10%, 15% or random risk per infection. With 0.5, 1, 2, or 3 reinfections per year.
See how many years you have before you reach 80% risk of LongCovid

2/

It was my great honour to participate in the panel at AFL Convention @ABFedLabour last week!
Together w/ @gilmcgowan, Karen Kuprys & @jvipondmd
On C-19,LongCØVID, airborne transmission, impacts on workers, kids, HC system

& that workplaces can be made safe

📸🙏@TomEdwardsAB My slides: "Reality check"
✅Constantly high level of (mostly for!) Cøvid hospitalizations in 🇨🇦
✅C-19 is harmful for kids (kills more than flu)
✅C-19 causes LongCØVID (not rare!)
✅We can prevent LongCØVID by preventing (re)infections
2/

A reminder of 'herd immunity' meaning
This definition was implied when 'herd/hybrid immunity via infection' was "sold" to decision makers and the public by its proponents.

Some of them now claim that by 'herd immunity' they meant something else.
Too bad they didn't say earlier. Herd immunity in this classical meaning is what has been promised.

Herd immunity in this classical meaning wasn't achieved for SARS2, and is not achievable.

Changing the definition after failing to deliver/being proven wrong, is extremely disingenuous and manipulative.

Why some influential people so vehemently argue against effective use of transmission-reducing tools?

Is reduction in SARS2 & flu infections (& hence reduction in illness/disability & deaths) not a desirable outcome?
Even 10% would be good, but very likely we could have >>70%

https://twitter.com/gosiagasperophd/status/1626367647549104128

..if we would only try.
Is the point to not allow trying?

We do have very powerful tools to reduce transmission/infection.
People(including kids) do not need to get sick/die from preventable infectious diseases.
Our grandparent knew it & worked to make the world ID safer for us

COVID is harmful for kids.
COVID kills much more children in Canada than Flu does. "We are just hoping kids will be OK. I don't see how they will be. The data suggest they won't be. But barely anyone is facing this inconvenient truth."

An excellent article by @BlakeMMurdoch

https://twitter.com/BlakeMMurdoch/status/1625925115430203394?s=20

Elimination strategy (classic PH/epi approach): Reality Check

Had we followed elimination strategy, even if we wouldn't eliminate SARS2 everywhere in the 1st pandemic year, we'd have less transmission -> less replication -> less mutation -> probably no VOCs
Once we..
1/ .. Once we had the vaccine there would be only WT to fight. Maybe some Alpha.
For WT and Alpha -- vaccines and minimal public health measures (masking, testing) would end the pandemic in 2021.

2/

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1418699432036495363?s=20&t=7Zc6XRjZPuWCceWjlLsrsQ

They started practicing this phrase and misinforming decision makers already with B117/Alpha (which wasn’t milder).

With Omicron they perfected it. (In our population it was milder per infection, but because it was more transmissible it infected more people -> hence killed more)

https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1610960859974742017

I’ve been debunking this erroneous take of folks who did the messaging (“mild Omicron is a blessing”), already in December 2021.
I demonstrated and been warning that “mild” Omicron will kill a lot of people. 👇

https://twitter.com/politicalham/status/1469696057189670918

Alberta Health data & analysis (from Feb 7) shows that schools w/ mask mandates had 3x less outbreaks & adults in those communities had 3x less hospitalizations.
Indirectly it shows that school infections *do drive* community spread.

#BringBackMasks

1/ Could office of @CMOH_Alberta pls share those critical findings with:
✅the public (presser+press articles+info adds)
✅AB gov
✅municipalities
✅school boards (e.g. CBE)
✅leadership of universities and other institutions
✅BCCDC (their PH officials seem not to know)

2/

Thank you!
Good that there is a term for what many of us witnessed/experienced last 2.5 years.

Example:
It takes 20sec to say: “suchandsuch paper is reassuring”.
It takes few hours to read the paper and find out and demonstrate that what it shows is actually not reassuring.

https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1571255696431411200

March 2021 example:

It takes 20 sec to say: “If I’d have to guess, I’d say there is 70/30 chance there won’t be 3rd wave”

It takes hours of effort to explain that:
a) it’s not a matter of guessing
b) growth pattern of variant shows it’s near certain that there’ll be 3rd wave

Reality check
In Canada COVID kills as many people (if not more) this year as it did in 2020 and 2021.

Lower IFR is not good news if it tricks authorities into letting the virus spread. Low IFR made the "mild" Omicron a very effective killer. In Alberta, per month deaths are not substantially lower than last year. And higher than in 2020.

Despite vaccination and lower IFR COVID kills large number of people, because it is allowed to (re)infect a very large number of people.

Please read this explanation of what @DGBassani ‘s 🧵from yesterday means. 🧵👇
And please share it/explain to all or any person in position of power you have an access to
We all can call/*email* politicians.
Federal, provincial, municipal, school boards, institutions, businesses

https://twitter.com/drgregkelly/status/1543239238107660290

Call them. Send them emails. Demand meetings.
Show them data. Explain.
They are biological beings like everyone. And *Everyone* should be concerned.
Explain them what they can do to protect themselves and all of us.

Please please do it.

2/

Those are very important graphs.
New immune-evasive variants are appearing faster and faster.

Each reinfection increases one's risk of #LongCOVID, and other severe outcomes (including harm to immune system and cognitive impairment)
The only way out is to #TargetTransmission

1/

https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1542991378073935877

There is a way out of this crisis.
We can strongly reduce the spread (hence disabilities, deaths, absenteeism & disruptions) and even achieve a state of SARS2 elimination or near elimination in 🇨🇦

For this our leaders need to seriously focus on #TargetingTransmission

2/

“It is my hope medical professionals will be more receptive to cutting-edge research, including when conducted by patients who have lived experience of a disease. Too many have suffered because of suboptimal work of some "experts". This is one reason why we have this pandemic”
1/

https://twitter.com/elisaperego78/status/1539280853603340291

For journalists: please distinguish the difference between:
1) Science, and
2) Private *beliefs* of credentialed experts, which may not be grounded in evidence

1) and 2) have different weights and should never be presented as equal “perspectives”

2/

💫long-term (till 2026!) modelling of COVID-19 hospitalizations

✅w/o regular boosters hosp.'ll be much higher than in 21'
✅Even w/ boosting 2x/year, hosp.'ll be almost as high as in 21' & we'll have 2🌊🌊/year
✅Adding PH protections to vaxx needed to 📉hospitalizations

1/ This important paper is written by: @bastien_reyne, @MT_Sofonea, and @samuel_alizon
🙏🙏🙏

Link to the preprint:
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

2/

BA.2 grows exponentially in Alberta.
If we care about lives, health and livelihoods we need to have at least some public health anti-Covid protections (e.g. N95 mask mandates, air purifiers, TTI)

Context: Omicron BA.1 🌊killed 745 Albertans in just 3 months.

1/ There was an unanswered Q: how many deaths decision makers will accept in "new normal"?

BA.1 killed in just 3 months >700 ppl in AB.
And it seems to be perceived as "OK". Nobody apologized for letting it happen.
That means that in "endemic" "new normal" "living with Covid...

2/

Omicron grows as steep as predicted.
And even earlier than in the model from Dec15

Please avoid large gatherings and all unnecessary contacts.
Pls wear N95/99
Pls get the vaccine/3rd shot
Pls don't do anything risky, as there may be no available ambulances.

1/ The virus is in the exhaled air and it can stay there even if infectious person left the room.

Don't inhale other people's exhalations:
1) avoid being around ppl from outside your household
2) make sure that rooms are ventilated and air is filtered
3) wear N95/99 respirator

2/