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Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
@ssbawa
Nov 14, 2021 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Proxying for @Golden_Pup
1) Ontario is reporting 666 new cases and 467 resolved cases of #COVID19 today.
18% (120) of the cases began over a week ago, dating back as far as March 2021.
cases were added without a positive test.
#COVID19ON #onpoli
2) Ontario is also reporting 7 new deaths with COVID-19 today.
4 of the deaths were individuals over 70.
1 of the deaths were individuals under 40.
The deaths come from cases dating as far back as March 2021.
"3) Based on the age distribution of the cases reported today, and using their case fatality rates from wave 3, 98.95% of the cases announced today would be expected to survive.

This is a chart showing the age distribution for the cases announced today, along with their CFR's."
4) For reference and context, below is a chart on where each PHU would land if we were to return to the colour-coded framework.
5) The 7-day avg is now 563. It's up 20% from one week ago and 61% from two weeks ago.
Attached is forecast for the next six weeks of case counts.
6) @COVIDSciOntario's October 22nd Modeling (7-Day Average):

Low/Status Quo: 230 (-333)
Mid: 501 (-62)
High: 593 (+30)
7) As of today, 88.36% of those aged 12 and up have been vaccinated w/ one dose, 85.17% are fully vaccinated.

Approximately 12,900 doses were administered in the past day.
8) Unvax'd: 45% of cases, 62% of hospitalizations, 48% of ICU admissions.

Partially vax'd: 4% of cases, 13% of hospitalizations, 2% of ICU admissions.

Fully vax'd: 45% of cases, 55% of hospitalizations, 10% of ICU admissions.

See below for pop.-adjusted rates.
9) Hospitalizations: 126 - 5% of Peak
-137 since yesterday

ICU Occupancy: 133 - 15% of Peak
2 since yesterday

No health region in Ontario exceeds 14% of its previous max of COVID patients, nor do they exceed 19% of their previous max COVID ICU occupancy.
10) Here is a timeline of notable events and policy pertaining to COVID-19 in Ontario.

Cases, hospitalizations and ICU occupancy are plotted against their previous peaks in Wave 3, with those peaks being displayed as the dashed line at the top.
11) The goal of these tweets is to contextualize & point out anomalies in the daily data provided by the Ontario gov't.

Most of the data comes from comparing day to day snapshots of this database: data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/con…

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More from @ssbawa

Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Jan 2, 2022
The case fatality rate is computed as (fatalities/known cases). The infection fatality rate (IFR) is (fatalities/all cases).
All cases are never known, and therefore IFR is always an estimate.
The Influenza IFR is around 0.2%. The Covid19 CFR is now 0.05%!!!! With too many cases not counted, the Covid19 CFR would be much lower than 0.05% even. Omicron Covid19 has a remarkably lower fatality rate than typical Influenza.
The number of total infections of Covid19 are expected to be in the 10x range of known ones (as seen in survey studies done in 2020). If this was factored in, the IFR of Covid19 would fall in the 0.005% range.
It is time to be thankful for Omicron. The ultimate Covid19 booster
Read 4 tweets
Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Jan 1, 2022
@COVIDSciOntario is indeed a propaganda unit pushing vested interests. They work hard to gloss over data staring in the face, while laying claims on behalf of chosen path.

What was the scientific basis for social distancing/masks/quarantines?

China did it, snd we can too?
The effects of general health on Covid19 outcomes have not become obvious to these people. All deaths have had a multitude of co-morbidities which have been addressable as a risk mitigation strategy.
Respiratory virus vaccines do not have staying power. We see the efficacy erosion to the extent that now in Ontario, vaccinated people have higher case rates than unvaccinated. Yet there is no mention of this coming from this table.
Read 4 tweets
Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
The mixture of relative statements and absolutes makes for utter nonsense of a conclusion while being correct at the same time.
All Covid19 infections are predominantly mild. Mild implies no hospitalizations. Vaxxed/Unvaxxed doesn't matter.
How predominantly mild? Age matters
For 0-11, Mild in 199 out of 200
For 12-19, Mild in 199 out of 200
For 20-29, Mild in 83 out of 84
...
For 80+, Mild in 3 out of 4. Fatal for 1 out of 4

Age matters.
Whatever risk reduction we talk about in terms of vaccination benefits, that has to be seen in this background of predominantly mild for most people. The absolute risk reduction is far less than relative risk reduction.
Read 6 tweets
Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Dec 28, 2021
Should we contact trace in a pandemic?
What is a pandemic?
Are we in a pandemic?

Central to the uselessness of contact tracing is the phrase "pandemic" itself.
In a pandemic, an expectation of something serious, which is also wide spread is there for novices such as I.
The wide spread aspect implies that doing spot tests will not reveal the totality of the spread.
There are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic yet infectious people in big enough numbers, and wide enough spread that an accurate picture is not possible
People often make fun of weather forecasting misses. The problem in question in similar. One can never know the air and water temperatures as well as different speeds and direction of movement.
Read 5 tweets
Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Nov 13, 2021
@Golden_Pup proxying
Pup Proxying
1) Ontario is reporting 661 new cases and 469 resolved cases of #COVID19 today.
17% (113) of the cases began over a week ago, dating back as far as February 2021.
4 cases were added without a positive test.
#COVID19ON #onpoli
2)2) Ontario is also reporting 6 new deaths with COVID-19 today.
3 of the deaths were individuals over 70.
The deaths come from cases dating as far back as April 2021.
"3) Based on the age distribution of the cases reported today, and using their case fatality rates from wave 3, 99.24% of the cases announced today would be expected to survive.

This is a chart showing the age distribution for the cases announced today, along with their CFR's."
Read 12 tweets
Satvinder Singh Bawa Profile picture
Nov 13, 2021
1/n)
Cases Reported...............= 661
Cases without Positive Test..= 4
Cases Resolved...............= 469
Cases older than 7 days .....= 113 (17.10% of 661)
Oldest case addition/removal.= 2021-02-25

#COVID19 #COVID19ON #onpoli
2/n
 The under 20 age group leads the case count.
The case breakdown by date of episode (symptoms onset), and by age group as as following
3/n
 Toronto and York from GTA are leading the cases. But the distribution when viewed by population would indicate that GTA is showing much lower incidence rate than other regions.
Read 8 tweets

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