There is no possibility that the current lifeways of developed societies can be maintained without continued degradation of the ecosystem to the ultimate point where it becomes unable to support us in anything approaching our current numbers.
And yes, that's how we stay alive.
2. This is a problem, because what we call climate change is but one symptom of broad ecosystem degradation and collapse.
Yes, carbon is a factor in climate change, but it is not the sole factor. And fuel carbon is even less the sole factor.
That doesn't imply we can keep burning
3. Sadly, virtually all "climate aware" people have been convinced that yes, since carbon is a problem, it must therefore be the only problem.
I find this odd. We all know about extinction. Deforestation. Desertification.
Don't we?
4. Don't all the people who praise electric cars know about mass extinction? Don't they regret it? Tweet about it? Worry about it?
Surely they don't think it's only caused by fossil fuel smoke.
Do they?
Didn't someone tell them about habitat destruction? Write about it? Anybody?
5. Don't we all know about habitat fragmentation? Do we think building new highways and high speed rail lines is a non-issue?
I'm seriously asking, except I guess I know the answer.
Yes. That's what we think.
6. I read today that 63% of Americans believe that the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (every new plan needs a brand name) is a Good Think.
Given that most Republicans wish Biden would just die, I assume that means some huge majority of Democrats approve of it.
7. (Good *Thing)
And Democrats are the only people, as a party, who claim to give a shit about climate.
None voice any concern about the rest of the ecosystem, but they claim to care about the climate.
So we're back to my question.
Do you really think we can live like this?
8. I guess that's another rhetorical question. Obviously almost all do.
And claim at the same time to believe in science, which utterly befuddles me, but I confuse easy.
9. You do realize that there is no possibility, climate change or no climate change, that life is going to look the same way in fifty years that it looks now, right?
Life didn't look *anything* like this fifty years ago, you know.
Whatever it looks like, it's bound to change.
10. If you will permit me a bit of prosaic license (It's the pedestrian version of poetic license) I will take you back, rather than fifty years, fifty-eight. The year I turned 16 and JFK turned was assassinated.
There was not one foot of open freeway in Kansas City. Not. One.
11. The "Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways," commonly known as The Interstate System, had been under construction for 9 years, having been born June 29th of 1956.
Keep that time frame in mind when you pine for "transition" to renewables.
12. Nine years into the Interstate Highway project there were only a handful of open sections nationwide. And it was nowhere near as big as a global renewable replacement for fossil fuels in our current energy economy. Nowhere near as widely distributed, either.
13. Kansas City opened the downtown loop of freeway while I was fighting in Vietnam. I got home at 21 and didn't know my way around my home town. All the roads were broken. Scared the shit out of me.
14. When I turned 16 there was virtually nobody in America who couldn't get to the grocery store in ten or fifteen minutes at a top speed of 35 mph, with stoplights. Surface streets. Things were *lots* closer together.
Suburbs weren't strung all to-hell-and-gone, either.
15. As a 15 year old boy kid with a 3 speed English bicycle I could go anywhere in all of Kansas City, Missouri, safely, within about an hour to an hour and a half one way, to the very farthest edges of the city.
I had walked home from downtown, about four miles.
All safely.
16. The main difference between that society and this one was speed of surface transportation.
I reject the proposition that this one is better.
It has a higher GDP, but most people are more miserable now than most people were then.
17. I went through Kansas City's black districts, did business in Kansas City's black districts. We were plenty racist, but predominantly black communities are poorer and worse off in Kansas City today than then.
I've watched the whole thing.
Worse lives, worse treatment. Now.
18. Just like white people, a few black people have risen way above their peers, but just like white people, the middle is gone. Princes and paupers. I don't believe we're going in the right direction.
19. Everything in today's conversation is based on continuing *just*like*we*are*.
GDP.
High energy jobs.
No matter what we do, it's changing. Let's make it more pleasant. Instead of more hectic.
To do that, the first step is slow down.
20. Gotta run a chore. Maybe more later.
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Passed the hundred page mark. I'm not hurrying. I might read a paragraph four times. The old brain does not assimilate information in the same way the same brain did when young, nor at the same speed.
Getting a fair number of assumptions and beliefs reset. Pleased about it.
One underlying belief has been, rather than reset, reinforced. That is, over our time here on Earth we have tried an incomprehensible different ways of organizing ourselves into societies.
Look at us today, I would say a majority of us don't believe humans could live without cars
3. At least, not have a decent life, a life worth living. We have reached the Pinnacle of Humanity.
Everyone before us was miserable. Three million years of miserable hominids glumphing around the savanna.
It's just a damn shame our way, The Best And Only Way, kills the biosphere
I tweeted this earlier, in the middle of another thread, but I want to address this question: do people think we can go on living like this and escape utter climate catastrophe?
I think the answer is, sort of, except they know there's an expiration date. Out there somewhere.
2. My opinion is just that, an opinion. It is based on responses to my climate / speed / energy threads going back three years, since I formed these theses.
I think most reasonable people think it's basically hopeless. I know all about the Not Giving Up school of thought. Good.
3. The Not Giving Up school of thought is, I feel, purest denialism. I can understand the roots of such an action, whether the decision be conscious or from another level, and maybe it's better. But it's not wired to reality. We are in full committed accelerationism, and physics.
A notable point the Davids make is that when there were still functioning American native societies in the fields and forests, people who found themselves in the other society, if they were Europeans relocated into native societies they usually stayed when they had a choice.
But Native people who got forcibly relocated into Euro society always went back when they got the chance.
I talk about slowing down, and people talk about sacrifice and wouldn't give up...
If there were no cars out on those roads I'd drive my donkeys to town every time.
More fun.
We've got this all wrong. White society, euro government, even if the people running the kleptocracy are actually black, it's this Euro money industrial system.
It's a terrible design. It can't be made to work. It blows up over and over.
This time it's gonna be *spectacular*.
Electric cars.
We *must*, we are told, build electric cars. For the Climate!®
There are about two billion cars and light trucks in the world today.
There are about 8 billion people.
So, there are enough cars for about 1 out of 4 humans to drive.
The other ¾ can just fucking walk.
2. We privileged ¼, though, for us, important persons that we are, it would be an utterly intolerable imposition that we had to live like three quarters of all humanity, shit people trudging on the filthy Earth.
We are far too important.
So, to Save The Planet®, we MUST
3. Immediately, promptly, quickly, mine enough copper to build two to three billion, hundred or more horsepower, electric motors.
We MUST immediately, promptly, quickly mine enough lithium and rare earths to build two to three billion 1500 pound batteries.
And we must NEVER STOP
What I would like to see happen is for young people to form intentional communities of what I have been calling Apocalypse Amish.
I'm the founding preacher.
First came Menno Simons. Menno was a Protestant when it was still a new thing, back in old Europe.
He read the book -
2. Protestants got to read it for themselves - and he said, We Christians are too attached to the World. We are competing economically, and also for social status, with non-believers. We must focus on our Community of Believers, and not wear fancy clothes or shiny things.
3. And, Menno said, Children cannot understand baptism or belief, so only adult baptism counts.
And his followers all got Baptized again as adults.
And they took his name, and became Menno-nites.
And the neighbors burned their houses down, but that's a separate path from tonight.
She says the lower curve is the one we should take, but the upper curve is the one we are taking.
If only.
This happy upper curve implies we reduce our emissions by small amounts starting now, instead of big amounts starting now.
Yeah, like I said, if only.
Here's emissions now.
Not dropping
And yesterday the US celebrated what will be the biggest single increase in the 21st century.