People remember the 14 November 1997 zim dollar crash. And attribute it to war vet payments. This is patently false. Correlation does not mean causation.

While war vet payments may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back it’s not the real reason.
The real reason is RBZ quasi fiscal activities that started in 1990. The mismanagement of the economy in the 1980’s despite huge donor funds spilled over in 1990’s.

RBZ printing filled the gap left by donors & MFI’s.
(i) Maize subsidy of 56% for consumers & 100% for vulnerable
(ii) RBZ printing directly funding farmers input schemes.
Africa went through exactly the same problems Zim had. But didn’t use their central banks in direct financing of subsidies, fiscal activities & political payments.
(iii) When RG Mugabe on a whim decided on the war vet payment it was because he now knew he could just print money. After all they had been printing for seven years without major consequences.

He didn’t realize that privatization had helped greatly to mitigate the costs of…
Printing that had been going on. Elections had been won by the printing press as well. So there was no need to consult anyone. Any problem, printing was the cure including war vet political challenge.

To be clear. After 7 yrs of RBZ printing Nov 14th was inevitable.

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More from @baba_nyenyedzi

29 Oct
1/12
I am going to say something positive about the MPC. Hold on tight.

It’s really one aspect. The rest was the usual jaba jaba.

The MPC increased RBZ interest rates from 40 to 60% pa. Giving a real positive interest rate. Albeit with a suspect inflation rate.
2/12
This is what the RBZ remit is all about. This is the major lever the central bank has. Yet it has been absent and useless for the last six years. The day Mangudya decided on Zim dollars the next thing he should have done is positive interest rates. That’s the only way
3/12
A central bank defends its currency & maintains monetary integrity of the whole system. By doing so it would rein in GOZ profligacy & mal investments in the market. Sakunda would never have happened.

So it was dereliction of duty by RBZ as prescribed by the constitution
Read 12 tweets
19 Oct
The way I was attacked, my IQ questioned, vitriol & trolling for simply stating the obvious that Zim is NOT an agriculture based economy! That over the decade, even with the best harvest Agric was now 9% ( 10 yr avg)of GDP.

In 2020 it was worse. It was 7.6%. Lowest in a decade.
Yet, unprecedented in the world is the amount of GOZ expenditure directed to agriculture.

We can explain it thus; despite an unprecedented expenditure in Agric through Command Agriculture, the sector contribution fell to its lowest.
The actual numbers point to a very fragile economy which was devastated by Covid.

Try & use the official exchange rates to determine the USD GDP.

Fx auction has reduced GDP overall gains. In the past Zim has enjoyed commodity booms, this time it was muted.

Thread in November
Read 6 tweets
17 Oct
Most problems can be solved if only we engage. Twitter makes it possible to engage regardless of our views. But, through engagement & interrogation we often find the truth & logic to questions that trouble us. The worst is acting on something in ignorance.
Twitter allows the ignorance to find light. I am always amazed at the level of intelligence, engagement & examples. Oft times, I too am educated or find great nuances in our debates.

GOZ is made of ignorant politicians with power. Nothing wrong with ignorance, it can be changed
But ignorance with power will never allow debate. Leadership capacity means ability to deal with complexity. Complexity requires a lot of engagement & understanding.

One is required to be a pilot to fly a plane. But one is not required to be a pilot to run a successful airline
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
From a corporate governance perspective the Perm Sec Guvamatanga should refuse the gift from Tagwirei. From a public finance perspective, it spells disaster when the main beneficiary of the condonation bill (parliament pardon for over expenditure) is gifting country's treasurer
From a moral perspective, it reeks & stinks to high heavens when street traders are arrested for illegal currency trades when Sakunda and others at the party are beneficiaries of the ZWL in the market causing rates to spike.
Lets not attack the man. But the Perm Sec must understand that his friendship & expensive gifting with Tagwirei goes against ALL governance rules especially in public service.
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
1/24 Thread

The cause of the black market rate rising

It is patently obvious that the president & possibly his Vice have acted on false information. Their actions make the situation worse.

Everyone has been afraid to tell the truth about the auction & it’s core problem
2/24
When the auction was introduced it was done so based on borrowed money from Afreximbank. Which money added to the Afreximbank loan of US$1.5bn. We haven’t been able to pay back & the loans accrue an interest rate of over 10% p.a
3/24
Business was naive in accepting the auction system based on false & faulty premise.
(1) RBZ is a regulator & holds monopoly of printing ZWL. There is an obvious moral hazard if it has the mandate to ration currency.

(2) Exporters money was being expropriated.
Read 24 tweets
25 Sep
Zimbabwe has in the last five years all but given up on FDI. Instead, in an unprecedented manner taken more offshore debt than in the last forty years.

China must pay Zim cash for its exports & not offset with onerous debt under the guise of infrastructure & donations. Image
GOZ is awfully inadequate in understanding geopolitics & economics. For example, China grew on savings & FDI. Not debt.

FDI is important for;
(i) Technology transfer
(ii) It’s equity at risk& is more patient.
(iii) Loss is not a burden on greater society
(iv)Global supply chains
All these are ideological questions. Socialism quickly runs out of money. Leaves debt & malinvestments. Losses & Debt become a collective responsibility. A child born today is saddled or as the saying goes indentured. All they’ll produce will go to paying off their father’s debt!
Read 4 tweets

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