The "lumpiness" comes from variations in density and topography. Mountains have gravity, so the #geoid is generally higher in mountainous regions. But inside the Earth there are variations, too - from the different kinds of rocks and the thickness of the crust. 2/7
Elevations on Earth are defined relative to the geoid. So every time you look at a topographic map, there's a secret geoid hidden behind that data! 3/7
The #geoid is not fixed - it changes as the balance of mass on Earth shifts. Mostly this is slow: tectonic movements, plate collision, erosion. Some of it is fast, but minor: volcanic eruptions, earthquakes.
As the ice caps melt, that mass gets distributed into the oceans. This lowers the geoid near the ice caps, and makes it appear that the land is locally rising.
This doesn't work for sea ice - that ice is already floating in water, so balanced. Only ice on land matters. 5/7
This is why we can't talk about #sealevelrise with a single number: local impact depends on local geoid changes. So the weird lumpy Earth geoid - and its changes over time - are central to how coastal regions will be affected as the climate changes. 6/7
Although the paper is framed around "earthquake forecasting," it's a prediction paper. They use the word prediction in both the paper and the supplement.
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This was reviewed through BSSA, and is being promoted by SSA.
Earthquake prediction, if it were proved, would be a BIG DEAL. The bar for passing review should be very high.
The 2002 Molise earthquakes occurred within ~1 day of each other (Oct 31 and Nov 1). The first quake collapsed a school, killing half the children inside (26 of 51). At the time, the area was considered to have no seismic hazard.
The school was built with reinforced concrete, but the second floor was added later, and it is possible that this made the building more susceptible to collapse.
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Several people have asked me recently about whether we should expect a large earthquake on the Afrin fault, south of the Feb 6 rupture.
First: no one can predict earthquakes, so if anyone has told you they can, they are wrong.
But let's take a look anyway.
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First, what is the Afrin fault? The AFEAD dataset has a small fault listed under this name, running through the city of Kilis, Turkey. An extension of this fault is mapped near the city of Afrin, Syria.
These faults are part of the northern end of the Dead Sea Fault.
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You can explore these faults yourself. The dataset describes the "Afrin fault" as having a slip rate of <1 mm/yr - i.e., not really detectable. But the extensions are a bit faster, maybe up to 5 mm/yr. The Dead Sea Fault slips ~5 mm/yr.
Why did a M5 earthquake occur HERE yesterday, in what is apparently the middle of the African Plate?
Answer: It's not the middle of the African Plate, it's the East African Rift: the continent is pulling apart at a rate of ~1-5 mm/yr.
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Yesterday's earthquake was just the latest in a long series of earthquakes - and not the largest, either; there was a M6 in 2020 to the south.
The "rift" isn't a single fault, but many.
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Volcanoes are scattered along the rift, too. As the crust thins, deeper areas experience lower stress, allowing "decompression melting" - hot rocks kept in a solid state by pressure will melt if that pressure is released.
A M6 earthquake occurred a few hours ago offshore Japan. Due to its magnitude & distance from shore, it was not damaging, but the setting is interesting to explore.
This is a subduction zone: the Pacific Plate is subducting below the Okhotsk Plate at a rate of ~9 cm/yr. The Okhotsk Plate used to be considered part of the North American Plate (even though it's in Japan!) but it actually moves slightly differently.
This is a very active place, seismically speaking. Today's earthquake occurred on the subduction interface fault (called a "megathrust" - i.e. a really big thrust fault). That megathrust has hosted many large earthquakes, including...
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