With all this logistics talk, I am introducing my class today to the 19th century development of manufacturing and logistics in one state: Pennsylvania. Especially important were the Schuylkill and Lehigh Canals linking anthracite coal to Philly and to NYC via NJ's Morris Canal.
The Pennsylvania Canal was authorized around the time NY's Erie Canal opened. In many ways, it was Pennsylvania's answer to New York, connecting the Del. River to the Ohio River like the Erie connected the Hudson to the Great Lakes. But it was a tougher engineering feat in PA.
Like with the Erie Canal, the PA Canal (and its branch canals) was surpassed by a railroad roughly along the same route (with some separate tunnels to cross the mountains). What made canals so important was not just the speed of inland shipping. It was the growth of canal towns.
Canal towns produced their own array of millers, manufacturers and merchants who linked the agricultural hinterlands of each canal town to the wider canal network. This was especially true in the "portage" towns where incline railroads climbed the PA mountains.
But the long distance opportunities opened by the canals were unmistakable. Steam boats along the Ohio River extended this network to Wheeling, Cincinnati, Louisville, St. Louis, Memphis and New Orleans.
Newspaper regularly printed "River Intelligence" reports of water levels along the Ohio, as well as shipment news. Canals avoided that problem with locks. Here is the Cincinnati Enquirer from May 1845:
The railroads rendered many of the canals obsolete by the 1850s, but they did not fall into disuse immediately. Like with trucks & freight trains today, infrastructure depended on multiple possible routes that could avoid RR crash disaster zones, weather events and choke points.
Needless to say, American towns and cities experienced numerous epidemics like yellow fever that often followed the canal and railroad lines. Epidemics hindered trade along the routes. Never did they bring the entire system to a halt. But they certainly affected supply & demand.
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Summary of studies shows, again, that natural infection confers robust immunity against reinfection. It's time for US Public Health officials to acknowledge prior infection-induced immunity. Any mandates should count previously infected as "immune" along with fully vaccinated.
Can't get any clearer than this: 0-7% of people become reinfected. Several large-scale studies included here.
It should be obvious but I'll say it anyway: This does NOT mean if you are unvaccinated that you should go out and try to get infected! This is solely about how those who were infected before vaccines were available (or just who got infected before now) should be designated.
Great thread rounding up newer studies on vaccine effectiveness v. infection and transmission since Delta arrived. Did VE drop bc of Delta? Or bc of waning effectiveness? Or both? And by how much? Read the whole thread!
One point mentioned in this thread that is lost in much discussion: For vaccinated people, the relative effectiveness (for infection) v. Delta is only slightly diminished compared to Alpha. But the absolute risk is much higher. You can see that in the many breakthrough charts.
Look at the blue line above. It stays far below the black line. Relative VE is still very strong! But note that blue line jumps from 8.47 weekly cases per 100k in June (pre-Delta) to 121.4 per 100k in late August (peak Delta wave). That's a 13X jump in ABSOLUTE risk for vaxxed.
Every time I read about some logistics issue - truck driver shortages, clogged ports, ag export problems, etc. - I do a quick Google search to see if this is a US-specific problem or something everybody is struggling with around the world. Every time it's global. As is inflation.
This chart from New York State is a good concise graph of vaccine effectiveness (VE) over time. Black line is vaccine effectiveness against "cases" (PCR+). Blue is unvaxxed cases. Red is breakthrough/vaxxed cases. VE is in the upper 70s now. Was in the low 90s through May.
That VE drop from low 90s to mid 70s fueled all kinds of panic, including CDC changing its mask recommendations. And for what? So the red line is higher than it was in May. But it's still very low.
How about hospitalizations by vax status? Still 95% VE.
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. The situation today is directly connected to the pandemic warping of supply and demand - first a collapse in demand --> major production/distribution cuts and then a massive increase (w/ stimulus & savings) in demand.
As long as pandemic restrictions continue to affect and warp the global market, consumers, producers and distributors will continue to guess - and often guess wrongly - about supply and demand.
You cannot look at inflation by looking at only half of the ledger. The problem is BOTH too much cash accumulated (and pent-up demand) AND warped/limited/uncertain supply. Responding knee-jerk to half of the ledger would be as disastrous as some of the bad pandemic responses.