Summary of studies shows, again, that natural infection confers robust immunity against reinfection. It's time for US Public Health officials to acknowledge prior infection-induced immunity. Any mandates should count previously infected as "immune" along with fully vaccinated.
Can't get any clearer than this: 0-7% of people become reinfected. Several large-scale studies included here.
It should be obvious but I'll say it anyway: This does NOT mean if you are unvaccinated that you should go out and try to get infected! This is solely about how those who were infected before vaccines were available (or just who got infected before now) should be designated.
In cases of mandates/passes, how can prior infection be demonstrated? I would have said a + antibody or T-cell test is needed. But the rate of reinfection is so low (regardless of antibodies picked up in tests) that a prior PCR+ test should suffice.
We still don't know how long previous infection-induced immunity will last, or if it will work against other non-Delta strains. Of course, the same question can be asked of fully vaxxed/boosted. But as of now, there is no evidence that, say, March 2020 cases are more PCR+ today.
So to check for population immunity, include both prior infection and vaccination. There are a few tools that do this by state and locality. By state, check here. You can check by state. popimmunity.biosci.gatech.edu
For counties (though does not include vax data), see here: covidestim.org

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More from @AstorAaron

16 Nov
Great thread rounding up newer studies on vaccine effectiveness v. infection and transmission since Delta arrived. Did VE drop bc of Delta? Or bc of waning effectiveness? Or both? And by how much? Read the whole thread!
One point mentioned in this thread that is lost in much discussion: For vaccinated people, the relative effectiveness (for infection) v. Delta is only slightly diminished compared to Alpha. But the absolute risk is much higher. You can see that in the many breakthrough charts.
Look at the blue line above. It stays far below the black line. Relative VE is still very strong! But note that blue line jumps from 8.47 weekly cases per 100k in June (pre-Delta) to 121.4 per 100k in late August (peak Delta wave). That's a 13X jump in ABSOLUTE risk for vaxxed.
Read 10 tweets
15 Nov
With all this logistics talk, I am introducing my class today to the 19th century development of manufacturing and logistics in one state: Pennsylvania. Especially important were the Schuylkill and Lehigh Canals linking anthracite coal to Philly and to NYC via NJ's Morris Canal.
The Pennsylvania Canal was authorized around the time NY's Erie Canal opened. In many ways, it was Pennsylvania's answer to New York, connecting the Del. River to the Ohio River like the Erie connected the Hudson to the Great Lakes. But it was a tougher engineering feat in PA.
Like with the Erie Canal, the PA Canal (and its branch canals) was surpassed by a railroad roughly along the same route (with some separate tunnels to cross the mountains). What made canals so important was not just the speed of inland shipping. It was the growth of canal towns.
Read 8 tweets
14 Nov
Every time I read about some logistics issue - truck driver shortages, clogged ports, ag export problems, etc. - I do a quick Google search to see if this is a US-specific problem or something everybody is struggling with around the world. Every time it's global. As is inflation.
Some examples: Here is Europe's truck driver shortage. ft.com/content/e8ca2a…
Clogged ports affecting trade between Singapore and Piraeus, Greece. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
14 Nov
The nation watches with great interest to see…if the Detroit Lions can win their first game of the season. In Pittsburgh. In overtime.
Santoso for the game winning FG?!?! 🙈
Lions get another chance!
Read 7 tweets
14 Nov
This chart from New York State is a good concise graph of vaccine effectiveness (VE) over time. Black line is vaccine effectiveness against "cases" (PCR+). Blue is unvaxxed cases. Red is breakthrough/vaxxed cases. VE is in the upper 70s now. Was in the low 90s through May. Image
That VE drop from low 90s to mid 70s fueled all kinds of panic, including CDC changing its mask recommendations. And for what? So the red line is higher than it was in May. But it's still very low.
How about hospitalizations by vax status? Still 95% VE. Image
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
Inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods. The situation today is directly connected to the pandemic warping of supply and demand - first a collapse in demand --> major production/distribution cuts and then a massive increase (w/ stimulus & savings) in demand.
As long as pandemic restrictions continue to affect and warp the global market, consumers, producers and distributors will continue to guess - and often guess wrongly - about supply and demand.
You cannot look at inflation by looking at only half of the ledger. The problem is BOTH too much cash accumulated (and pent-up demand) AND warped/limited/uncertain supply. Responding knee-jerk to half of the ledger would be as disastrous as some of the bad pandemic responses.
Read 14 tweets

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