In today's @markets newsletter I wrote about this seeming disconnect.

IMO there's one simple reason for it and one interesting reason for it.

Sub' here:

@markets Basically I think it's a combo of

1) Inflation

2) Extreme partisan polarization on all things economy

2a) The surging quits rate affecting Republican small business owners specifically.
The big question is now whether these sentiment readings actually translate into a slower economy. It's one thing to be upset. It's another thing to pull back on investment and consumption. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Also thanks to @pearkes for the quits chart.

Anyway, sign up for the newsletter here.

Tomorrow I'll write about MMT or inflation or the Fed or crypto or supply chains or semiconductors or why stocks are rallying or yieldbugs bloomberg.com/account/newsle…

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More from @TheStalwart

16 Nov

The full text of full conversation with @crmiller1 about the Dutch lithography giant $ASML is out.

I learned a ton from this one, and I'm really glad to have re-read the text (I don't always do).

Gonna thread a few things that jumped out:
@crmiller1 So the first thing is definitely this answer from Chris to @tracyalloway about ASML's competitive edge. The story is really their incredible supply chain, and being able to manage 4000 suppliers.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
@crmiller1 @tracyalloway Right now, ASML's most advanced EUV lithography machines are not exported to China, and for the time being (and likely the next several years) this represents a hard constraint on Beijing's efforts at building up its own domestic chip industry. Image
Read 5 tweets
15 Nov

After teasing it as part of our chip series for months, @tracyalloway and I finally did an episode on $ASML, the Dutch powerhouse in advanced lithography

Great chat with our guest @crmiller1, who is writing a book on the company bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @crmiller1 As our guest notes, $ASML has zero competition at its level of its sophistication. None. Nobody else can achieve the scale it can, with its reliability. So if you want to make the most cutting edge chips, you are an ASML customer.
@tracyalloway @crmiller1 As I wrote about on Friday, what's impossible for competitors to replicate is not its technological knowledge per se, but its supply chain mastery, dealing with at least 4000 distinct independent suppliers
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov

The subscriber only Odd Lots newsletter that @tracyalloway and I write each week is now available on the web.

I teased ahead to Monday's episode, which is all about Dutch lithography giant $ASML

@tracyalloway I keep going back to @hassankhan point. Politicians love to fetishize R&D and science. But for some of the most cutting edge technologies, what's unique is not the scientific breakthrough per se, but simply the ability to coordinate supply chains and manufacturing ops at scale.
This is also something that @danwwang talks a lot about, the unduplicable, tacit knowledge that can only come about from doing something and getting better at doing it over and over and over again
Read 7 tweets
12 Nov
I know we're never supposed to admit when we're wrong or that we've changed our minds. But I agree now, after much twitter banter, that asset holders have been among the huge winners over the last year. So I agree it's time to start taxing capital gains the same as normal income.
We should also seriously consider getting rid of 401Ks, 529 and related plans. If you're fortunate enough to have money to spare and invest in the stock market, why should you be then further rewarded with a reduction of your tax bill?
Obviously, none of this will solve the problem entirely. The wealthy can still generate income by borrowing against assets (as opposed to selling them) so in those instances, we should go with @interfluidity plan of taxing such loans as normal income.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov

The full text of our discussion with @GoddessofGrain is out.

Just a crazy amount of insight into what's driving the surge in grain prices, and therefore meat, dairy and all kinds of other stuff we eat.

@GoddessofGrain Angie knows this stuff so well, and is a fount of insight.

I hadn't thought about, for example, how the booming housing market makes it harder for farmers to acquire land, driving up their costs, and therefore the price of food bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@GoddessofGrain Also just like everyone else right now, farmers are worried about the future availability of part supplies (like a belt for their tractor) so are attempting to build up their buffers.
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov

For today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the spending boom that started under Trump, and how certain elements of it were likely disinflationary.

@markets Trump bailed out the airline industry and now airfares are subdued.

Trump didn't bail out the rental car industry and now rental car prices are soaring.

Bailouts work and are good if you don't like inflation.
And of course the entire PPP program helped untold number of small businesses from going out of business by "winterizing" their operations. That's crucial supply side capacity we have today, with demand having returned in such a robust manner.
Read 4 tweets

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