1/5

Mr. Biden met each candidate separately for interviews on Nov. 4, and he was joined in the Oval Office for those meetings with only one other adviser, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, according to people familiar with the matter.

wsj.com/articles/biden…
2/5

Each meeting was scheduled for one hour, though Ms. Brainard’s ran slightly over the allotted time, one of these people said. Some people familiar with the matter said Ms. Brainard’s meeting went better than expected.
3/5

Yet another story that paints Brainard in a better light than Powell.

But the betting markets are still steadfast that Powell is 70-ish% to get renominated.

Recall I think it is
Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999%
4/5

Also interesting that Yellen was not part of these meetings. She knows these two better than anyone else in the administration and has come out in favor of Powell.
5/5

I've also been arguing that Powell is a bargaining chip to be traded away, IF NECESSARY, to win support for Biden's spending plans.

You can read this tweet as saying this as well.

Again, how does Biden get progressives to agree to a smaller spending plan, IF NECESSARY?

Give them Powell, he's expendable.

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More from @biancoresearch

17 Nov
1/7

*MERKEL SAYS CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC IN GERMANY IS `DRAMATIC'

It is the highest ever daily count (blue bars) and 7-day average (orange), and still going vertical. Image
2/7

Austria and the Netherlands are the same as Germany. ImageImage
3/7

Western Europe is still surging and the 7-day average (orange) is the highest since January. Image
Read 8 tweets
17 Nov
1/4

Biden told reporters on Tuesday to expect the announcement of a nominee for Fed chair in “the next four days.”

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4

Note that Powell has never closed below 50% and is not zooming to near 100% in anticipation of this announcement.

Instead betting market volume is spiking and the Powell/Brainard spread is the narrowest ever. Image
3/4
Reminder, I think the odds are

Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999%
It is that close.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov
1/6

60 Minutes did a segment on the Supply Chain

As I have been saying for weeks now ... What is the worst day of the supply chain problem? Answer, today. And tomorrow should be a new extreme.

cbsnews.com/news/supply-ch…
2/6

This gives the impression is the chain is at 100% and it will take years to expand it. And that assumes everyone wants to invest the big $$$ to do it.

So, to repeat myself, how do you fix this? Zoom prices much higher so we stop buying stuff.

See the latest CPI report
2/6
Transcript:

Peterson: If they can't get their products in in time for the holiday season. And of course it also means consumers are going to pay really high prices for everything.

Whitaker: So this is what inflation looks like?

Peterson: Yeah, this is inflation first-hand.
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
1/20

The Economist is echoing what many on the MSM are saying ... COVID is about to disappear.

The only problem is the data says something very different.

A thread to detail the latest.

economist.com/the-world-ahea…
2/20

Now before I go any further and we get get sucked into a discussion of treatments, hospitalizations and death rates, ECONOMIC POLICY is driven off cases.

So, Cases = Lockdowns. This is why cases are the most important statistic to ECONOMIC GROWTH.
3/20

Start with the US, cases have bottomed and turned higher. See the bottom panel, the 7-day average is increasing at the fastest pace in two months
Read 20 tweets
13 Nov
1/3

Puff piece out this morning extolling the virtues of Brainard and why she would make a great Fed chairman.

And don't you worry, despite here reputation as a uber-dove, she can be an inflation fighter!

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/3

Someone tell the betting markets! They think Powell gets the nod and Brainard gets a consolation prize.
3/3
Biden stalling on decision is the latest ever, Joe Stiglitz wants Powell out, and we get stories about Brainard, not Powell.
This is not the narrative one would expect to see if Powell's probability of getting re-nominated was truly believed to be 75%.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed…
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
1/8

Even though the cash bond market was closed today, the interest rate futures were open and had a fairly sizeable decline. Not like yesterday's sell-off, but they did continue yesterday's declines with even more losses.

Bond futures were off about 1/2 point.
2/8

Most interesting (to me, at least) was fed fund futures tanked AGAIN today.

This show the implied yields out to May 2023. Or, where the market is pricing in the funds rate out to May 2023.
3/8

Wonky chart alert ...

This chart shows the shifting of the forward curve from last Friday (red) to yesterday (orange) to today (blue).

This is a massive move for less than 1 week.
Read 8 tweets

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