1/6

60 Minutes did a segment on the Supply Chain

As I have been saying for weeks now ... What is the worst day of the supply chain problem? Answer, today. And tomorrow should be a new extreme.

cbsnews.com/news/supply-ch…
2/6

This gives the impression is the chain is at 100% and it will take years to expand it. And that assumes everyone wants to invest the big $$$ to do it.

So, to repeat myself, how do you fix this? Zoom prices much higher so we stop buying stuff.

See the latest CPI report
2/6
Transcript:

Peterson: If they can't get their products in in time for the holiday season. And of course it also means consumers are going to pay really high prices for everything.

Whitaker: So this is what inflation looks like?

Peterson: Yeah, this is inflation first-hand.
3/6

Feightwaves story saying the backlog of container ships anchored off LA/Long Beach is at a new record today.

It is not getting better.

freightwaves.com/news/clock-tic…
4/6

New anchorage record … again

According to the Marine Exchange of Southern California, 111 container ships were in the port on Tuesday, a new high. Of those, 30 were at the Los Angeles/Long Beach berths, 32 at anchor and a record 49 “loitering” (in holding patterns).
5/6

Meanwhile, the waiting time at anchorage continues to escalate. The Port of Los Angeles said that the average wait for anchorage to berth was an all-time-high 16.6 days as of Thursday. The wait time has trended sharply upward over the past week.

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More from @biancoresearch

15 Nov
1/5

Mr. Biden met each candidate separately for interviews on Nov. 4, and he was joined in the Oval Office for those meetings with only one other adviser, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, according to people familiar with the matter.

wsj.com/articles/biden…
2/5

Each meeting was scheduled for one hour, though Ms. Brainard’s ran slightly over the allotted time, one of these people said. Some people familiar with the matter said Ms. Brainard’s meeting went better than expected.
3/5

Yet another story that paints Brainard in a better light than Powell.

But the betting markets are still steadfast that Powell is 70-ish% to get renominated.

Recall I think it is
Powell 50.001%
Brainard 49.999% Image
Read 6 tweets
14 Nov
1/20

The Economist is echoing what many on the MSM are saying ... COVID is about to disappear.

The only problem is the data says something very different.

A thread to detail the latest.

economist.com/the-world-ahea…
2/20

Now before I go any further and we get get sucked into a discussion of treatments, hospitalizations and death rates, ECONOMIC POLICY is driven off cases.

So, Cases = Lockdowns. This is why cases are the most important statistic to ECONOMIC GROWTH.
3/20

Start with the US, cases have bottomed and turned higher. See the bottom panel, the 7-day average is increasing at the fastest pace in two months
Read 20 tweets
13 Nov
1/3

Puff piece out this morning extolling the virtues of Brainard and why she would make a great Fed chairman.

And don't you worry, despite here reputation as a uber-dove, she can be an inflation fighter!

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/3

Someone tell the betting markets! They think Powell gets the nod and Brainard gets a consolation prize.
3/3
Biden stalling on decision is the latest ever, Joe Stiglitz wants Powell out, and we get stories about Brainard, not Powell.
This is not the narrative one would expect to see if Powell's probability of getting re-nominated was truly believed to be 75%.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed…
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
1/8

Even though the cash bond market was closed today, the interest rate futures were open and had a fairly sizeable decline. Not like yesterday's sell-off, but they did continue yesterday's declines with even more losses.

Bond futures were off about 1/2 point.
2/8

Most interesting (to me, at least) was fed fund futures tanked AGAIN today.

This show the implied yields out to May 2023. Or, where the market is pricing in the funds rate out to May 2023.
3/8

Wonky chart alert ...

This chart shows the shifting of the forward curve from last Friday (red) to yesterday (orange) to today (blue).

This is a massive move for less than 1 week.
Read 8 tweets
10 Nov
1/4

I go one step further. Today is the day that "transitory" needs to stop rationalizing and start apologizing.

Inflation has gone way beyond what was expected, they can no longer be proven correct.

A thread of the market reaction today, which is big.

2/4

Massive moves in short rates. Few bother with them as they are SUPPOSED to be tied to monetary policy. But they are "unanchoring."

The US 2-year note is up 8 bps today. This is the biggest daily rise since the bond market was losing its mind in March 2020. Image
3/4

The fed fund futures curve is having a HUGE move today. Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
1/12

In the last month, markets are pricing in more aggressive tightening of monetary policy across the globe, sending short rates higher. This move accelerated in the last week. Is this signaling the end of the “transitory” inflation era?

A thread to explain
2/12

The last two weeks have seen short-term interest rates around the globe shoot higher, as the following series of charts show.
3/12

This trend is most acute in Australia where it appears yield curve control is blowing up. The Reserve Bank of Australia cannot maintain its target of 0.10% (blue line).
Read 12 tweets

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