Singapore and covid๐ธ๐ฌ - a case study >>
TL;DR:
1. Does mass vaccination prevent covid waves?
2. Most vulnerable are not vaccinated. Why? And what does it imply for government handling and vaccine efficacy?
TL;DR:
1. Does mass vaccination prevent covid waves?
2. Most vulnerable are not vaccinated. Why? And what does it imply for government handling and vaccine efficacy?
The island country used to be a model for handling covid.
Together with other South-East Asian countries, the West looked at it with admiration, how those techie Asians know how to avoid pandemics, due to their manners of compliance and consideration
Together with other South-East Asian countries, the West looked at it with admiration, how those techie Asians know how to avoid pandemics, due to their manners of compliance and consideration
https://twitter.com/NitzanHorowitz/status/1443156181212618758
Well, it was true until September...
(I added EU average for comparison - unlike what most us think, the number now are similar to the European countries now)
(I added EU average for comparison - unlike what most us think, the number now are similar to the European countries now)
Actually it's not specifically Singapore, all countries on this part of the world enjoyed covid-free period through 2020, only by March 2021 they joined the rest of the world. Singapore was just the last one
(again, dark blue is EU)
(again, dark blue is EU)
As we all know, 2021 is the year of vaccine.
The vaccine that was supposed to eliminate covid.
Singapore is the best of them, with 81% fully vaccinated by late August, before the wave.
(again EU data - in brown - for comparison)
The vaccine that was supposed to eliminate covid.
Singapore is the best of them, with 81% fully vaccinated by late August, before the wave.
(again EU data - in brown - for comparison)
So clearly mass vaccination didn't eliminate covid.
In fact, it coincides with *initiation* of waves.
Of course, correlation does not imply causation, e.g. one may argue that with vaccination they released restrictions thereby initiates waves.
surely - cannot be relied upon.
In fact, it coincides with *initiation* of waves.
Of course, correlation does not imply causation, e.g. one may argue that with vaccination they released restrictions thereby initiates waves.
surely - cannot be relied upon.
This is not a surprise, it happens everywhere (e.g. Israel, Florida)
The attached study found a weak positive correlation between % vaccinations to increases covid cases, i.e. the more people are vaccinated, the bigger the increase.
can't be relied upon.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articโฆ
The attached study found a weak positive correlation between % vaccinations to increases covid cases, i.e. the more people are vaccinated, the bigger the increase.
can't be relied upon.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articโฆ
So we see that in the "big picture" view, mass vaccination does not attenuate covid waves.
But we're told that, in details, that unvaccinated are much less likely to die (10-20 times less)
So how come after mass vaccination, deaths no. are similar? should be cut by factor of 10!
But we're told that, in details, that unvaccinated are much less likely to die (10-20 times less)
So how come after mass vaccination, deaths no. are similar? should be cut by factor of 10!
We may get some hint by a closer look on Singapore data.
This is their vaccination rate.
The compliance is amazing. 93% even in 12-16 age group!
Well... almost.
In 80+ age group, the share of unvaccinated is twice (or more) as much as any other group!
moh.gov.sg/covid-19/vacciโฆ
This is their vaccination rate.
The compliance is amazing. 93% even in 12-16 age group!
Well... almost.
In 80+ age group, the share of unvaccinated is twice (or more) as much as any other group!
moh.gov.sg/covid-19/vacciโฆ
That's really surprising.
In this group, the CFR (mortality rate) of unvaccinated is 23% (clearly they're not healthy marathon runners)
Why do those people don't rush to get vaccinated?Are they less compliant than the young generation?
Do they read conspiracy theories on web?
In this group, the CFR (mortality rate) of unvaccinated is 23% (clearly they're not healthy marathon runners)
Why do those people don't rush to get vaccinated?Are they less compliant than the young generation?
Do they read conspiracy theories on web?
Further more, why don't the Singaporean government put all the effort in this age group, instead of more restrictions on unvaccinated young people (whose CFR is much less than fully vaccinated 80+)?
a back-of-envelope calculation suggests it will reduce covid death by 1/3 - 1/2.
a back-of-envelope calculation suggests it will reduce covid death by 1/3 - 1/2.
I suggest an hypothesis.
Those people are just to frail and cannot be vaccinated >>
theconversation.com/the-pfizer-vacโฆ
Those people are just to frail and cannot be vaccinated >>
theconversation.com/the-pfizer-vacโฆ
Or simply cannot go to vaccination centers
ynetnews.com/health_scienceโฆ
ynetnews.com/health_scienceโฆ
what does this imply?
1. governments must do everything possible to get those people vaccinated. it's much more cost-effective than vaccinating all children, for example (as the risk of unvaccinated young person is less of 80+ even vaccinated)
but more interestingly... >>
1. governments must do everything possible to get those people vaccinated. it's much more cost-effective than vaccinating all children, for example (as the risk of unvaccinated young person is less of 80+ even vaccinated)
but more interestingly... >>
2. the fact that the most vulnerable are unvaccinated, makes the field-study comparisons we always see, fraudulent. comparing between vax to unvax is actually (to a big extent) comparing between healthy to unhealthy. it's not the vaccine, it's the underline health status.
This may also explain the big-picture vs. details "paradox":
vaccination *selects* the healthier people, while leaving the most vulnerable untouched.
same people who died before died now. The partition "vax vs. unvax" is (to a big extent) "healthy vs. vulnerable" of then.
vaccination *selects* the healthier people, while leaving the most vulnerable untouched.
same people who died before died now. The partition "vax vs. unvax" is (to a big extent) "healthy vs. vulnerable" of then.
this may also explain why attack rate (for death) in "unvaccinated" is getting higher or at least remains constant when wave declines: the status of "unvaccinated" becomes confined to most vulnerable.
(but see here alternative explanation @profnfenton
probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vacโฆ)
(but see here alternative explanation @profnfenton
probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vacโฆ)
Actually, there is almost direct evidence for the selection hypothesis, by a study that found out that unvaccinated are more likely to die from non-covid causes...
Nobody assumes that vaccine helps with other help health issues, right?
Nobody assumes that vaccine helps with other help health issues, right?
https://twitter.com/prof_shahar/status/1452038614238449666
The best way to evaluate the effect of the vaccine is of course a Randomized, Controlled Study (RCT) in which people are assigned randomly to vaccine and placebo groups, thus neutralizing any confounding variables.
The only one RCT I know is Pfizer's six months follow-up of the original trial.
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10โฆ
As it was conducted on not-old (median: 50), fair-health people, covid is not a big health issue for them, so they didn't show significant improvement.
summary next tweet >>
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10โฆ
As it was conducted on not-old (median: 50), fair-health people, covid is not a big health issue for them, so they didn't show significant improvement.
summary next tweet >>
Vaccine effect in Pfizer's RCT on not-old (median age: 50), fairly healthy participants:
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10โฆ
covid deaths - ๐ซ
all-cause-mortality - ๐ซ
covid "severe illness" - ๐*
all-cause-hospitalizations - ๐
* weird, out of 30 "severe cases" only 2 died?
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10โฆ
covid deaths - ๐ซ
all-cause-mortality - ๐ซ
covid "severe illness" - ๐*
all-cause-hospitalizations - ๐
* weird, out of 30 "severe cases" only 2 died?
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