A VACCINATED ELDER IN GERMANY TODAY IS ONLY 46% LESS LIKELY OF DYING OF COVID COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO
thread with data and explanations
TL;DR: the vaccine reduced risk of dying conditional of catching the virus, but the virus spread and this year you're more likely to catch it
Another data point: the average unvaccinated adult German (18-59yo) is THREE TIMES more likely of dying of COVID today than one year ago. Even though the 2/3 of the population that's vaccinated should protect them.
Because there are more cases → higher risk of catching it
Herd immunity works in the measure the herd isn't infected.
If the vaccine meant that the vaccinated cannot get sick or transmit the virus, and if the virus hadn't spread wildly, then herd immunity would protect the community.
POST-mortems are asked after the problem hurt you. "Why did the project fail, and what can we do better next time?"
PRE-mortems are asked before the problem occurs. "Let's imagine the project failed. What could have happened?"
With pre-mortems, you have time to react.
Pre-mortems don't have to be just negative. They can be positive too, such as: "Let's imagine that the project was wildly successful, well above our expectations. What would we have done today that made it succeed?
POST-mortems are asked after the problem hurt you. "Why did the project fail, and what can we do better next time?"
PRE-mortems are asked before the problem occurs. "Let's imagine the project failed. What could have happened?"
With pre-mortems, you have time to react.
Pre-mortems don't have to be just negative. They can be positive too, such as: "Let's imagine that the project was wildly successful, well above our expectations. What would we have done today that made it succeed?
More indication that the vaccinated are more similarly contagious as the unvaccinated than thought (but for shorter time and, of course, less likely to be hospitalized and die)
On the one hand, similar viral load doesn’t necessarily mean similar contagiousness, and household studies have the property that rate of viral spread matters less than in other spaces.
On the other hand, one more indication that vaccines aren’t silver bullets.
(I rephrased and integrated the tweet posted 20 mins ago for completeness, ht @maintcraft)
They are elected representatives. You want to override someone’s representatives. Who’s the fascist?
Fascists are denied by reacting strongly to any violation of rights / constitution, regardless of the color of the shirt of the one committing it. This is one of such.
Italy seems to be planning not to accept COVID tests anymore for its Green Pass.
Terrible, because most jobs require a Green Pass.
I’m against any restriction that doesn’t focus on risk.
IMHO legislation should be agnostic as to how I’m reducing risk, whether it’s through vaccines or test + masks.
Also, I’m slightly afraid of the restrictions that can be accepted by a population of 80% of vaccinated who’s suggested, “restrict the unvaccinated more or lockdown again”.
Hence the importance to talk in terms of risk, not vaccine.