A VACCINATED ELDER IN GERMANY TODAY IS ONLY 46% LESS LIKELY OF DYING OF COVID COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO
thread with data and explanations
TL;DR: the vaccine reduced risk of dying conditional of catching the virus, but the virus spread and this year you're more likely to catch it
thread with data and explanations
TL;DR: the vaccine reduced risk of dying conditional of catching the virus, but the virus spread and this year you're more likely to catch it
Another data point: the average unvaccinated adult German (18-59yo) is THREE TIMES more likely of dying of COVID today than one year ago. Even though the 2/3 of the population that's vaccinated should protect them.
Because there are more cases → higher risk of catching it
Because there are more cases → higher risk of catching it
Herd immunity works in the measure the herd isn't infected.
If the vaccine meant that the vaccinated cannot get sick or transmit the virus, and if the virus hadn't spread wildly, then herd immunity would protect the community.
But it's not what's happening.
If the vaccine meant that the vaccinated cannot get sick or transmit the virus, and if the virus hadn't spread wildly, then herd immunity would protect the community.
But it's not what's happening.
If you're not vaccinated yet, be careful.
Things are not getting better, if your country still has lot of cases.
And if you're vaccinated, know that it's not a silver bullet. A vaccinated elder in Germany today is only 46% less likely of dying of COVID compared to one year ago.
Things are not getting better, if your country still has lot of cases.
And if you're vaccinated, know that it's not a silver bullet. A vaccinated elder in Germany today is only 46% less likely of dying of COVID compared to one year ago.
Let me repeat.
A VACCINATED ELDER IN GERMANY TODAY IS ONLY 46% LESS LIKELY OF DYING OF COVID COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO
That's not what most think, and it's important to dispel the false sense of security.
A VACCINATED ELDER IN GERMANY TODAY IS ONLY 46% LESS LIKELY OF DYING OF COVID COMPARED TO ONE YEAR AGO
That's not what most think, and it's important to dispel the false sense of security.
Source for my claim above: the calculations in the screenshot below, based on the data at the link in the tweet below, and numbers of deaths yesterday
https://twitter.com/DPfndler/status/1460935960556941317?s=20
I'd love to repeat the calculations above for longer periods, such as the whole November. Still, I don't think that the point will change much: yes, the vaccine protects us, but this is significantly offset by increased spread.
Conclusion: it's imperative that we all keep using those non-majorly-restrictive measures such as masks & ventilation, because how much the virus spreads matters a lot, even if there's a vaccine and even if it'll become endemic
Of course, the above applies to Germany and, I guess, other countries with high spread.
It doesn’t apply to countries that managed to control spread better.
It doesn’t apply to countries that managed to control spread better.
Long post version: pandemic.substack.com/p/risk
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
