What is striking about this motion for preliminary injunction (basically a Stay), is how much of the language of the 5th Circuit's Stay vs OSHA is quoted.
Also I didn't realize CMS was attempting to use the Social Security Act as the legal justification for this Mandate.
2/n .
Overview of reasons why a STAY must be granted:
* At odds with the SSA
* Exceeds CMS's statutory authority
* Violates the SSA's prohibition on control of healthcare workers
* Violates the
** Spending Clause
** Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
** 10th Amendment
3/n
Healthcare will be affected in 3 ways:
* Healthcare companies will lose federal funding and be subject to fines
* As many as 2.4 million Healthcare workers may lose their livelihoods
* Worker shortages will cause many of the most vulnerable to lose access to Healthcare
4/n
Remember, this is the Plantiff's request for a "Stay" filed yesterday. This is not the ruling on that request.
Next the Plantiffs go through the 4 traditional criteria for a Stay and how this case merits one
5/n
Plantiff's argument that CMS issued the Mandate without following the required processes.
Also commentary on CMS' claim that this is an emergency declaration, using the same language from the 5th circuit OSHA - "it waited almost 2 months" after Biden's directive
6/n .
Plantiff's argument that
* The CMS Mandate is beyond the Executive's authority, the authority lies with Congress
* Never has the CMS relied upon its Social Security Act authority to mandate healthcare worker vaccination
7/n
Plantiff's argument that the Social Security Act grants no such authority to CMS
* SSA only authorizes "such regulations as many necessary to carry out administration"
* Other statutes cited by CMS only grant authority to govern standards & day-to-day aspects of facilities
8/n
Plantiff's argument regarding the constitutional issues the CMS Mandate raises:
* Reference to the 5th Circuit OSHA Stay - that power to mandate vaccination falls to the states
* The SSA used in this way would confer limitless, unfettered power to the Executive Branch
9/n
Plantiff's argument regarding the Mandate violating sections of the Social Security Act:
* Requires consultation with the States before a rule is issued which CMS concedes it did not do
* Violates Title 18 which prohibits control over the selection/tenure of health workers
10/n
Plaintiff's argument that the Mandate is Arbitrary & Capricious:
* it ignores the SSA's focus on patient wellbeing rather than the health of providers.
* the a list of multiple real examples from health care providers, of possible impacts if the mandate goes through
11/n
Plaintiff's additional arguments that the Mandate is Arbitrary:
* Arbitrarily rejected alternatives such as periodic C19 testing
* Goes against previous opposition to mandates by both CMS & Biden
* Its blatant goal is simply to increase Vaccine uptake
12/n
Plaintiff's final arguments that the Mandate is Arbitrary:
* it ignores the State's reliance on Medicare and Medicaid and the potential harm to citizens and workers
* Its scope is too broad, affecting facilities not related to CMS's goal of protecting elderly & infirm
13/n
Plaintiff's arguments that the Mandate violates the Spending Clause
* Congress must give clear notice that mandates are a condition to accept federal funds
* Noncompliance with the Mandate threatens a large portion of the States budgets, and leaves States with no choice
14/n
Plaintiff's argument that the Mandate violates the 10th Amendment and he Anti-Commandeering Doctrine
Interesting. Basically saying that the Feds will be forcing the states to enforce the Mandate for them. Dragooning/commandeering them in acting as Mandate enforcement.
15/n
Plaintiff argument that States and Citizens will suffer irreparable harm without a Stay
* Irreparable economic injuries
* Loss of State sovereignty under the Commerce Clause
* Injuries to citizens either losing livelihoods or their medical freedom
16/n .
Finally the argument from the Plantiffs that the Injunction would not harm the Defendents or Disserve the Public Interest.
Request for the court to grant the motion for a Preliminary Injunction (Stay)
17/n .
If anything the CMS Mandate is a bigger stretch and less flexible than the OHSA mandate. Huge stretch trying to fit this into the Social Security Act & no out in regards to choosing a testing/masking option.
Unless Upside Down world appears, a Stay will be granted IMHO.
18/end
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Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.