feels like the extent to which Democrats are at risk in the midterms because they did not do popular things (leave, permanent CTC, etc) and are associated with unpopular things (school curriculum change, etc) is actually what's underreported
one of the things I sincerely appreciate about the right, or at least did appreciate before the last few years when a mass psychosis infected it, is that we used to be pretty good about acknowledging a reason we often lost elections was because people disliked our ideas.
there's a whole family of rightist rhetorical tropes: "the two santa clauses," etc, about how Democrats promise goodies and Republicans offer the hard reality, etc, etc. true or not, it was a useful self image where we generally believed when we lost it was because...
... in fact our ideas were not popular. Of course that was paired with a critique saying that, hey, maybe popular opinion sucks and sometimes you have to steamroll what the people want to give'em what they need: Republic > Democracy, etc, etc
But the rise of "populist" rightism has really destroyed this kind of narrative, because now we're supposed to believe our ideology is in fact the real ideology of real Americans all over and if we lose it's not because it wasn't popular but because someone cheated us.
Really wish we could just go back to everyone supposing that losing elections or being low in the polls means that your actions were not popular, rather than supposing that in fact it's all just rigged.
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There are many reasons to not correct! One reason is that it's not always clear which method is better so the correct direction of correction is unclear.
Another is that we sometimes have no idea what effects may exist, because we don't have parallel measurement.
That is, sometimes two measurement techniques exist in parallel so we can see precisely how they differ in aggregate effects. But often we don't have this, so all we know is "it's different measurements so may not be comparable."
Ships are very hard to protect, deploying a global navy without directly controlled colonial empires and bases requires incredible tolerance for espionage and security risks, oversight is extremely difficult, and many historic methods of disciplining naval personnel are untenable
i.e. if you look at how navies *historically* kept sailors and officers in line compared to how they disciplined soldiers on land, you'll understand that in fact preventing the navy from collapsing into disorder is a major historic problem!
25 years of CPS data suggest that bigger CTCs tend to INCREASE single mother employment. hyeinkang.com/uploads/1/3/9/…
I have not carefully checked out all the method here. And of course it COULD be that higher CTC benefits would encourage work *because the CTC has a phase-in*, whereas making it flat would change that.
But still, overall this seems to suggest that worries about CTC effects on LFP may be somewhat overstated.
Very cool JMP from @lydia_assouad : quantifying the effect of Ataturk randomly-happening-to-visit your town on the odds you adopt a Turkish (i.e. nationalist) name!
It's a very nifty paper. Ataturk went on a political tour around Turkey promoting stronger Turkish/secular/Republican identity. Part of that was promoting the new "Pure Turkish" language. Baby names are a nice test case for this!
Also really good controlling for confounds. Paper has data on Ataturk's interaction with/co-optation of local elites, the formation of branches of his political party, etc. It can show mechanisms, complementary effects, etc. Leaders matter, but so do institutions!
the use of the word "hyperobject" is in fact prima facie proof that a person is an unreliable narrator of the world, and in fact even their own mental states
few know this
it is with some pleasure i inform everyone that object-oriented ontology is absolutely nuts, and the fact that it has given rise to the complete fabrication of fake objects merely for the purpose of reifying depression into a philosophical concept is the proof!
the rock does not care how it relates to the tree!
Just want to note that this is how absolutely nuts the "Christian nationalism" discourse has become, that suggesting (correctly) that the US was historically a Christian nation is seen as "Christian nationalism."
The US still has treaties IN FORCE TODAY which legally declare the country a Christian nation!
It's quite literally the law!
Now, those treaties are very old and clearly those terms are no longer seen as operative--- but it is nonetheless very clearly the case that the US *at a minimum historically was* a "Christian nation" in both practical/social and also literal/legal terms.