Sherrod Brown says he's "absolutely certain" either Jay Powell or Lael Brainard could be confirmed as Fed chair.

They're both "clearly qualified."

Decision could be announced "in the next several days or couple of weeks."

h/t @aduehren
Sherron Brown won't reveal his preference except to say he does have one and has shared it with Biden.

"I don't have a read on what they're going to do. They have put a lot of thought into this. They've put a lot of thought into the other openings."
Brown says "they may do one or two" other Fed appointments "with the chair. It's not clear."
On confirmation, Brown said he hopes to do the "first hearing in December."

"If we can move quickly we will."

Then he adds, "I may have misspoken here. I don't think it's essential that we do because the term's not up 'til February. So we're not going to rush anything here."
Brown: "The hearings will obviously be very important, particularly discussions of climate and regulation."

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More from @NickTimiraos

15 Nov
One question I’m getting a lot is how a Brainard Fed would be different from a Powell Fed on rate policy? We laid some of that out in this story today. I’ll elaborate in this thread.
The short answer: They've stated similar views on inflation and policy wsj.com/articles/biden…
But because policy could be nearing an inflection point and because no one at the Fed has had to deal with a problem like the current one, there’s perhaps less certainty about the Powell reaction function or the Brainard reaction function, and any differences therein.
(Note: This isn’t intended as a commentary on the political horserace, I.E., who's up or who's down, which doesn’t feel like it has changed all that much since the summer)
Read 15 tweets
3 Nov
Powell is really underscoring the uncertainty associated with policymaking today. "We have to be humble about what we know about this economy." We thought the economy was heading to one destination until Delta came along.
Powell: We thought schools reopening and elapsing unemployment benefits would boost labor supply. That wasn't the case.

The learning for those of us who lived through the last cycle, over time, maximum employment can be somewhere different than anticipated.
Powell: It is very possible that the Fed has already met its inflation test for liftoff. The inflation language in the forward guidance might be a little stale.
Read 8 tweets
1 Nov
This week’s Fed meeting—and Powell’s press conference on Wednesday—is a higher stakes event than seemed likely a few weeks ago after markets reacted to potentially hawkish shifts by central banks in Canada, the U.K., and Australia wsj.com/articles/centr…
The Reserve Bank of Australia stunned investors when it declined last week to defend the 0.1% target on bond yields that mature in Apr ‘24, fueling expectations that it will scrap yield curve control at Tuesday’s meeting. “If so, this is a startling about-face,” said one analyst
The Bank of Canada surprised markets last week when it ended its government-bond-purchase program and moved up the time frame for when it might first raise its benchmark interest rate from its current near-zero level.
Read 5 tweets
27 Aug
Jay Powell reaffirmed the Fed’s emerging plan to start scaling back its stimulus policies this year, and in considerable detail, he elaborated on his expectations for receding inflation and the mistakes of overreacting to a temporary price surge wsj.com/articles/powel…
Here's the chart that's worth quite a few words from Jay Powell's speech
Powell's inflation dashboard

1) Higher prices aren't broad based
2) Surge-price categories are moderating
3) Wages don't suggest "excessive inflation"
4) Long-term expectations have only increased a little
5) Little reason to see global disinflationary forces reversing overnight
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
A com­pro­mise preserves the Fed and the Treasury’s existing authority to start crisis-lending programs but prevents them from creating a copycat or “clone,” says Toomey, of two business loan programs or a muni market backstop wsj.com/articles/congr…
The exact wording of the statute will be important, of course, in determining what this means going forward.

But a potentially bigger issue is that Republicans have signaled there will be a political fight for any active use of this new dimension of Fed credit policy
Consider: if there’s broad political support for a lending program, there’s less risk of second-guessing when loans default, especially for something with more credit risk

Political risk to the Fed grows as it entertains riskier lending w/out broad political support
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec 20
Toomey told reporters he was motivated to secure legislative language that would bar the Fed from reviving the corporate credit, municipal liquidity and Main Street lending programs because he feared Democrats would push to subsidize credit more generously if allowed to do so.
The whole fight over the last 24 hours came down to the actual technical language to achieve this goal. Toomey conceded his first pass at the language late last week might have been "too broad" by limiting activities that he didn't intend to constrain.
The compromise is designed to ensure the Biden administration and the Powell Fed cannot restart the programs "by creating a clone and calling it something different" without congressional authorization. "These programs were never intended to hang around indefinitely."
Read 4 tweets

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