Just to add - “making up“ in world-wide trade what you “lost“ in EU trade is more often than not a state based, aggregate type of rhetoric. In reality, it does not work that way /1
Companies that sold in the EU were not prevented from selling in the US. They sold in the EU because they were able to capture a market position there. They did not sell in the US because they did not capture a position there. /2
If you lose your EU sales, you cannot just compensate for that. Capturing a market position in the US will be just as hard as it was before. The barriers are just the same. The work it requires is identical. /3
The only companies for which this is a reasonable thought concept are those who said I sell to Europe, That‘s good enough for me. I am not interested in making more profits.
Those are not many.

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More from @hhesterm

11 Nov
On the "who would accept a border in their country" line that is, again, making the rounds. (thread)
It is a line that - take in and of itself - has a lot of appeal. It sounds counterintuitive. I have seen a famous colleague use it, because it appealed to him. /2
But look at it in detail and it becomes more complicated. When a UK politician said with a view to the US "which country would accept agricultural checks between parts of it" - one could not point out that, well, the US accepts them, because there are some between states. /3
Read 10 tweets
4 Nov
Behind the increasing silliness of a tiny fishery dispute getting blown out of proportion there is a serious problem of public discourse in disputes regarding agreements (thread)
At issue in this dispute are a comparatively small number of licenses - important for those who (do not) hold them, but negligible in all other aspects /2
In practice, a short negotiation should have settled this. Or dispute settlement and they decide /3
Read 6 tweets
30 Oct
Comparative constitutional law should be made a mandatory topic in law school. There is an almost automatic incomprehension of systems different from the one you grew up in. And usually in rather drastic terms. (Thread)
This goes every which way. A person from systems with strong judicial review and written constitution learning about UK constitutional conventions needs years to get over that shock. /2
Lawyers from the UK in return are used to one strict all powerful rule - sovereignty of parliament. The one rule to bind them all. Of course, different in other systems. Fights between state and federal courts? Checks and balances? You mean chaos! /3
Read 7 tweets
27 Oct
The 24 hour news cycle at work. Here's a quick deescalation thread to explain (thread)
France was contemplating measures. Apparently in a press meeting these were discussed under the heading of "seafood ban" (h/t @jonhenley ). This lead to the times report. thetimes.co.uk/article/france…
Now a seafood ban in my off-the-top-of-my-hat analysis seems to breach the TCA. (Is it a countermeasure? Cannot do those under the TCA if you don't find wording to support it). BUT...
Read 5 tweets
27 Oct
Apart from the increasing level of humour of this story, there's a problem of our discourse that is dangerous for our society and our future. /1
Apparently a moderator invited someone from an organization he profoundly dislikes to interview him. He regarded the person as discredited when the person stated he's a carpenter - and thus works with dead wood. His mind turned off. /2
When the carpenter pointed out that we can grow wood, the moderator curiously stated that we can also grow concrete - and now seems on a mission to confirm this wrong statement. Why is this tragic? /3
Read 6 tweets
24 Oct
So here we go: Why Weiss and K 3/21 (the decision of the Polish Constitutional Tribunal) are - in law - fundamentally different. A thread. Even I hope it won't be a long one. (Thread)
Let's start with the caveats. First of all there's a ton of writing on composition of Polish courts and all that. This is not a thread about those issues. Others have written competently about that.
Second caveat: I do not read Polish, I have to rely on the translation provided by the Polish Court itself. I do not like the translation the BVerfG provides. I assume there will be problems with the Polish Court's translation, too. But let's assume the basics are ok.
Read 24 tweets

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