BTC overbought at the top and looks a bit oversold at the moment under 60k.

Even without a parabola, Bitcoin tends to see a price increase during the holidays starting around the week of Thanksgiving until around NYE even in bear years.

Unless bucking trends, '21 is out of ATHs
My Tether theory requires a market price of $75k before the end of 1Q2022.

There was a good chance we would have seen it before the year closed but it ain't looking good at the moment.
This is sort of a big deal.

The four year pump cycle, and thereby S2F, are the culmination of the oldest ideas about Bitcoin going back to the mailing list like the Adoption S-Curve.

Bitcoin is predictable to those who have been in the longest

If that changes, it's a new world
Without the clockwork increases in price it calls into question if the asset will see plateaus no existing model has predicted.

It creates FUD where none has previously been.

Stock-to-Flow boy has 1.5M followers because all this seems to follow a discernable rhythm.
Within this analysis is the suggestion that The Powers That Be in Bitcoin cannot risk the prediction failing.

That's where we are now.

Without a dramatic price increase before NYE folks might just start asking hard questions.

... and nobody has answers that will suffice.
I bring this up because November 18th is traditionally the day where the parabola goes into full swing.

This year we aren't even off the launch pad.
Here's a goofy prediction that may not seem intuitive:

If the price drops under the 59k support level it will bounce off of 56k and may very well shoot up to 75k or higher.

Otherwise we'll keep going sideways into the new year.

One of those times I'd be happy to be wrong.
Checking out TradingView, most of the bullish TA agrees with my take and if there's a dramatic rise in price it won't be until Q1.
Almost 24 hours later, here we are bouncing around 56k.

Next support is 50k. Dips are always possible, but closing a 1H candle on a 40 handle is serious. Like something hugely negative happened on or off chain.

Volume still sticking > 40B which is a good sign.
Perhaps 2017 was the end of the 60 day parabola and things will simply take longer going forward due to increased market participants.
I've been bullish about the next 180 days all year and I'm still bullish.

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More from @BryceWeiner

20 Nov
DEAR MILLENNIALS

JOSS WHEDON DID NOT MAKE THIS A THING IN MODERN CINEMA

QUENTIN TARANTINO DID
"Dick dick dick dick dick dick dick"

"How many dicks was that?"

"They call it a Royale with Cheese"

Read 10 tweets
20 Nov
My daughter disappeared from our quiet suburban neighborhood in August of 2010.

Three years later, 8 years ago today, in direct defiance of the CHP, FBI, and the State Department I travelled 5,000 miles into Mexico and did what everyone said was impossible.

I brought her home.
My Thanksgiving isn't your Thanksgiving.
Sometimes it's just like that.
Read 12 tweets
20 Nov
I only watched RIttenhouse's testimony and that day Binger was absolutely amazing and nuanced.

He was *so* good that I cannot help but wonder as I read various accounts of mistakes he made w/ other witnesses if he didn't throw the case.

It's like two different people.
Having facts excluded from evidence and then asking unnecessary questions which allow for those facts to be placed into evidence is just ... confounding.

That's beyond an unforced error, or even a fuckup. It's just stupid. How does that happen if not intentionally?
Another weird thing is that the judge said KR was illegally in possession of the weapon but that was not to be known to or considered by the jury

Clearly the judge wanted guilt to be answered in a narrow context, but the illegality was due to crossing state lines & thats federal
Read 12 tweets
19 Nov
Imma logoff Twitter and spare myself from half-assed legal analysis from across the political spectrum.
For those of you with stomach to engage, a tip: if someone tosses out some case law who clearly isn't a lawyer, challenge them to explain the exact application in context.

If they can't you're not arguing w/ them, you're arguing with the podcast where they heard it.
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov
Brick drops were real in 2020, tho.

During the height of civil unrest, in cities across the country, piles of bricks just laying around in the immediate vicinity of activity were repeatedly documented.

This is not Baader-Meinhof, or frequency illusion.

It stopped happening.
The specific images being circulated are contextually false.

The phenomenon was real.
I had my doubts about this being a thing until it happened a few times in San Francisco.

A contractor for the city, which was not disclosed, left bricks unsecured on the street - in San Francisco - along protest routes.

I recall at the time the mayor commented on it.
Read 4 tweets
28 Oct
The midterm elections are gonna be … eventful.
It’s gonna get awfully dark for a minute.
Any sort of sustained armed conflict or "civil war" scenario is still just a fantasy. This is for two reasons.

The first is economic: no financial institution will fund a multi-billion dollar war, and crypto ain't enough.

The second is geography: there's nowhere to go.
Read 10 tweets

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