Thread by @olgatokariuk

I read and reread brilliant investigation by the @bellingcat about Ukrainian sting operation which aimed to arrest Russian Wagner mercenaries, but ultimately failed to do so. Despite this failure, the work done by Ukrainian intelligence is impressive 🧵bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

Ukrainian intelligence used fake personas and email addresses to pose as recruiters for Russian oil companies in Syria and Venezuela, managing to attract applications from more than 100 Russian mercenaries who fought - and committed war crimes - in Donbas, Syria and elsewhere

Unsuspicious candidates sent to Ukrainian special services abundant evidence of their fighting as 'rebels' sent from Russia to Ukraine. Their war crimes included shooting down Ukrainian military planes and helicopters in Donbas. Some mentioned complicity in downing #MH17 flight

All this evidence, according to Ukrainian intelligence plan, was to be used later in trials against the mercenaries themselves, and added to Ukraine's case against Russia at the International Court of Justice. In 2017 Ukraine sued Russia for acts of terrorism and discrimination

For more than two years, everything went according to the plan. But at the last stage the operation was disrupted, and the arrest of 33 most wanted mercenaries by Ukrainian authorities failed. There were several reasons for that, read the report: bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…

This investigation was very expected in Ukraine and it does add a few details to what has been already known. It confirms suspicions that delay of the operation was ordered by the president's office: but it also provides a context why it was done, something that wasn't discussed

There are a lot of questions to Ukrainian authorities whether the delay was justified and who made the ultimate decision. There are even more questions about why they repeatedly denied the operation was ever planned, and later accused foreign powers of orchestrating it

.@bellingcat report doesn't mention any foreign powers that could have been involved in this operation. Ukraine's President Zelenskyi has not yet commented on it. His chief of staff Yermak, mentioned by the main source of the report as the man who ordered the delay, denied this

In my opinion, the weakest part of the operation was the plan to make an emergency landing of the plane carrying mercenaries from Minsk to Istanbul, in Ukraine. They only had 28 minutes for it, and the decision might have caused international outrage and bitter repercussions

We will never know what would have happened if this daring Ukrainian intelligence operation was successful. Ultimately, 33 mercenaries were detained by Belarusian authorities during transit, and returned to Russia. However it doesn't mean they would never face justice.

Ukraine still has all the incriminating evidence mercenaries voluntarily handed in. This is not only personal evidence, it speaks volumes about Russia's leading role in the war and its crimes in Ukraine. Hopefully, it can be added to Ukraine's criminal case against Russia at ICJ

This, and the fact that Ukrainian intelligence showed they are capable of designing and conducting highly sophisticated plans with the aim to defend Ukraine's national interests, are the main achievements of this operation, which might not be such a failure after all. END