There is more to seasons than temperature, but I agree that although "respiratory infections are seasonal" is constantly offered as an explanation, it doesn't actually explain anything.
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1461299692730519553
In my forthcoming post about the effect of population structure on transmission, I take a stab at explaining the cyclical nature of the epidemic. It's speculative but at least I try to go beyond this slogan, which is largely empty in my opinion.
But this is precisely what I'm talking about: explaining the cyclical nature of the epidemic by saying that amounts to explaining what is to be explained by simply restating it, which is not an actual explanation.
https://twitter.com/DylanRo37635502/status/1461334790515441670
A real explanation must say *why* infection rates are going up and down. I think there is seasonality linked to meteorological variables (which will dominate when the virus is endemic), but I don't think it's the main explanation of the cycles we've seen during the pandemic.
I have no doubt that this plays a role, but it doesn't really explain many of the changes in transmission we have seen, since for instance last January incidence collapsed in many places but people didn't go out more since it was in the middle of winter.
https://twitter.com/Chad_Kosciusko/status/1461337965238620160
And as I explain in the forthcoming post mentioned above, this also happened in places where as far as we can tell there were no changes of behavior, whether mandated by the state or voluntary. So there has to be another factor and saying "it's seasonal" doesn't explain anything.
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