if *not playing sportsball* with the ccp is warmongering, then war is inevitable and it is better that it should be soon when victory is more likely, and I can fight in it instead of my children.
seriously tho the reason they vanished her is because all the CCP top brass as sex criminals, like legit all of them.
once the dominos start falling on women (kids?) speaking out about those dudes it's gonna be an absolute meltdown
see, i think it is. if you assume that only, say, 1/10 of sex scandals involving us electeds ever come to light, you're still at like just 30-60% of our electeds being sex criminals, and im saying in the ccp top ranks it's like literally everyone
also as an aside this is a GREAT EXAMPLE of one of the US' best strategic resources: accountability. when we model accountability, when we ignite campaigns of transparency and create global norms that the elite can be held to account, it impacts other countries.
if you want to crush the CCP, then you should: 1) improve bank transparency and auditing 2) crack down on money laundering 3) massively punish firms who pay bribes anywhere in the world 4) create social norms of elite accountability
all the ccp elites are tied up in money-laundering, corporate corruption around the world, etc. they're all guilty of numerous financial and other crimes in numerous countries, including often China itself, hence why changes of power in China come with lots of elites vanishing.
the biggest problem the elites face is the growing suspicion by normal people in china that the rules don't apply to the elite families, that they're looting the system, etc. that's why xi's anti-corruption campaign was so important!
but it's pretty obvious it was also extremely selective.
so if you want to wreck'em, *expose their personal wealth and sex stuff*. they absolutely cannot handle it.
also take away their prestigious toys like the olympics.
whereas in the US learning that a politician is a sex weirdo is, like, just tuesday; it's no threat to the system. we'll just vote them out.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
There are many reasons to not correct! One reason is that it's not always clear which method is better so the correct direction of correction is unclear.
Another is that we sometimes have no idea what effects may exist, because we don't have parallel measurement.
That is, sometimes two measurement techniques exist in parallel so we can see precisely how they differ in aggregate effects. But often we don't have this, so all we know is "it's different measurements so may not be comparable."
Ships are very hard to protect, deploying a global navy without directly controlled colonial empires and bases requires incredible tolerance for espionage and security risks, oversight is extremely difficult, and many historic methods of disciplining naval personnel are untenable
i.e. if you look at how navies *historically* kept sailors and officers in line compared to how they disciplined soldiers on land, you'll understand that in fact preventing the navy from collapsing into disorder is a major historic problem!
25 years of CPS data suggest that bigger CTCs tend to INCREASE single mother employment. hyeinkang.com/uploads/1/3/9/…
I have not carefully checked out all the method here. And of course it COULD be that higher CTC benefits would encourage work *because the CTC has a phase-in*, whereas making it flat would change that.
But still, overall this seems to suggest that worries about CTC effects on LFP may be somewhat overstated.
Very cool JMP from @lydia_assouad : quantifying the effect of Ataturk randomly-happening-to-visit your town on the odds you adopt a Turkish (i.e. nationalist) name!
It's a very nifty paper. Ataturk went on a political tour around Turkey promoting stronger Turkish/secular/Republican identity. Part of that was promoting the new "Pure Turkish" language. Baby names are a nice test case for this!
Also really good controlling for confounds. Paper has data on Ataturk's interaction with/co-optation of local elites, the formation of branches of his political party, etc. It can show mechanisms, complementary effects, etc. Leaders matter, but so do institutions!
the use of the word "hyperobject" is in fact prima facie proof that a person is an unreliable narrator of the world, and in fact even their own mental states
few know this
it is with some pleasure i inform everyone that object-oriented ontology is absolutely nuts, and the fact that it has given rise to the complete fabrication of fake objects merely for the purpose of reifying depression into a philosophical concept is the proof!
the rock does not care how it relates to the tree!
Just want to note that this is how absolutely nuts the "Christian nationalism" discourse has become, that suggesting (correctly) that the US was historically a Christian nation is seen as "Christian nationalism."
The US still has treaties IN FORCE TODAY which legally declare the country a Christian nation!
It's quite literally the law!
Now, those treaties are very old and clearly those terms are no longer seen as operative--- but it is nonetheless very clearly the case that the US *at a minimum historically was* a "Christian nation" in both practical/social and also literal/legal terms.