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19 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Ready? Let's talk about equity performance in this year in USD

Best? Argentina, Vietnam, Nasdaq, Russia, SPX, and India ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿป
Worst: Turkey (roasted!), Brazil, mainland listed HSI stocks or China offshore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Asia, Korea ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿคฎ

What about 2022? Image
Turkey was the worst, and a lot of it is FX driven. Want to hear a lira joke?

Knock, knock!
Who's there?
Turkish lira here!
TRY/USD! ๐Ÿ˜ฌ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท

Jest aside, what expectations did u have about 2021 in end 2020 that weren't true?

How about a weaker USD? Image
Vietnam yielded +36% while HSI Chinese enterprise -17% so that's a +53% gap

Is Vietnam doing better than China in terms of growth? Not if you look at the latest GPD which Vietnam bombed out at -6.2%YoY while China at 4.9. What's holding then China back? Itself, as in regulations Image
What about Vietnam? Well, the -6.2% is a once a quarter event & it is expected to bounce back strongly in Q4 and even more so in 2022.

Typing that listening to Birdy singing on a Vietnam assembled airpods.

Regarding China, it can boost equities but will it? Investors waiting..

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
19 Nov
Someone please send the Turkish central bank a memo that we're at the tightening part of the cycle globally, following the Fed's tapering, especially with inflation around 20%.

TRY/USD
Want to see global inflation? Let's start with North America:

USA 6.2%
Mexico 6.2%
Canada 4.7%

Europe:

Spain 5.4%
Ireland 5.1%
Germany 4.5%

U get the point. Yes, we got zero interest rate policy in the USA & NEGATIVE interest rate in Europe. But the direction is TIGHTENING.
Repeat after me: REAL RATES ARE VERY NEGATIVE. Very negative. What does that tell you about money & asset prices & volatility ahead should inflation proves not transitory (already has but whatever).

Let's look at Eastern Europe:

Turkey 19.9%, higher, but alas, they cut rates!!!
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
18 Nov
A friend reminded me to look at the data after Covid. Given that most of the deaths occurred in the elderly, seems that millennials gained some wealth during Covid. That said, we got even more debt, and some bad stuff like consumer credit. Silent gen went to Gen X + millennial?
US assets:

Most are in equities (40.3trn)
Real estate is 34.9trn
Pensions are 31trn
Private business is 13.7trn
+ Others like durables.

Want to know what millennials own of the largest asset? 2%

Only 2% of total corporate equities & mutual funds. No change before/after Covid.
SPX rose almost 25% this year & our generation owns roughly 2% of total equity assets so we're basically so behind in asset valuation.

Let me show u what we have in wealth as a share of total for different assets end 2019 & Q2 2021.
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
18 Nov
Missing Southeast Asia beaches & food & BSP decision at Boracay is such a tease. I once had a business trip in Palawan. Another one was Bali๐Ÿค—. Decision is a hold but what is more interesting is this upcoming presidential election in May 22. All in the family! Duterte, Marcos...
Marcos' son is running for presidency while Duterte's daughter is running for VP. Did u know that they run on diff tickets? Anyway, the last person who had more than 6-year term was Marcos (he served 3 terms & bankrupted the country & as a result they had to reinstitute the ban).
The interesting about Marcos is that he really influenced the Philippines till now. His expansionary policy (remember the nuclear reactor he paid for but never used & the Philippines is still paying the external debt that he incurred) left the Phils shy of spending, until Duterte
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
17 Nov
Good morning! 2 more days & we are out of quarantine. One of the positives of being stuck in a room for 2 weeks is that plenty of time for work & cuddles ๐Ÿฅฐ w/ the baby & fewer choices to make (no need to wonder where to go & what to eat & what to do ๐Ÿคท๐Ÿปโ€โ™€๏ธ).

Shall we chase the $?
The US released its monthly holders of US treasury. Note that this is stock (which includes valuation effect) while flow just tells u net buying & selling by foreigners. Net flow is positive for long-term but stock shows lower, which means investors worried about INFLATION!!!
The Philippines & Indonesia have central bank decisions today. Both are expected to hold rates, very different than Latin American counterparts that have been forced to hike. For Indonesia, still low inflation & soft recovery mean they'll want financial conditions to be loose.
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
11 Nov
Good morning!!! Did you see US CPI last nigh ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ๐Ÿ”ฅ? Yes, 6.2%! Did someone said that inflation peaked and transitory? What is the Fed's target? 2%

How many months since we have past that? 8!
Of course stocks didn't like it, but u know what, the Euro didn't either & so didn't bonds.

Why? Well, have you seen US CPI? 6.2%! US CPI is higher than any of the EM Asian countries I cover. All!

What does that say about credibility of Jerome Powell? Janet Yellen? Joe Biden?
For 8 months, inflation went PAST 2% & the Fed is supposedly data dependent.

Here we are - US inflation 6.2%. Even after the "steepening" last night, US 10 year is only 1.5493%.

Real rates are LE NEGATIVE! DEEP IN THE FREEZE ZONE๐Ÿฅถ. When is the last time it was so? 1970s ๐Ÿ‘ˆ๐Ÿป
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
12 Oct
The Bank of Korea held rates & note that it will watch CPI for November but rather confident that consumption is stronger as mobility normalizes (SK moves to endemic) & inflation pressures limited, as in no stagflation.

Meanwhile, coal off the chart & oil edging to 84! Image
Flooding in coal mining region in China has caused coal prices to rise (note both China & India rely on coal for electricity: >70% of total source but India said it got ample reserves).

Across Asia, this energy supply shocks hits economies differently! Image
Remember that most of Asia loses from commodity supply shocks, except Australia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

China, Japan, India and South Korea are net importers of commodity.

$ flows from importers to exporters in commodity supply shocks. USD/JPY 113.3!!! Meanwhile, IDR strong! Image
Read 4 tweets

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