The @BankofEngland's chief economist Huw Pill tells markets not "focus on a specific meeting" after the mismatch in action versus expectation last month.

Adds: "we're trying to train people to think the right way" about monetary policy = medium term
#TalkingEconomics
He adds that risks are now double sided for the BoE ahead of its December meeting. It doesn't want to feed inflation, but also doesn't want to crimp growth.

A "not too hot, not too cold" goldilocks path is what's needed, Pill adds.
Pill says he's relieved that QE purchases are coming to an end, because the support measure comes with "baggage".

We are moving to world where QE is going to be "parked", and unwound in a careful way, he says.
.@jagjit_chadha Warns on the problem of dealing with aftermath of QE. he adds that he's "not convinced" that there's a clear plan at the moment for unwinding the mountain debt the BoE holds. It yet could roil markets, he says.
@jagjit_chadha Huw Pill: Fed's dot plots (a form of guidance to markets), when Pill was working in financial markets, were not "transparent, honest or clear", he says, effectively rejecting any suggestion of introducing such measures at the BoE.

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More from @Annaisaac

22 Sep
Some crazy trade lines coming out of the US trip.

(1) we already knew US had downed tools in trade talks with U.K. It was made clear talks were on ice until the NIprotocol was working effectively/no longer a source of tension.

Made post-consent vote before any move likely. 1/x
That’s December 2024. So calm down.

I saw some drafting from talks previous admin. There was a way to go EVEN THEN (several chapters still not agreed) even before Biden took office, even if a deal under Trump was considerably more likely. 2/x google.com/amp/s/www.poli…
As for USMCA (aka the new NAFTA) - a deal which includes Canada and Mexico.

I would ask that people stop working off the logic that bilateral deals with some members means you can easily join a group deal.

Really. Stop. 3/x
Read 6 tweets
7 Jun 19
This week we've seen how a trillion pound problem could link a pensioner in Kent to the next global financial crisis and not enough people know about it. I'll be saying unsexy words like pension and liquidity, but bear with me. This is a disaster waiting to happen... 1/thread:
Pensions funds have tried to get people a good return on money amid low interest rates. In some cases they've treated asset managers like magic piggy banks: giving a tasty return but also instantly letting you withdraw cash. Spoiler: it doesn't work, that's scary 2/thread
What's the problem? Asset managers - part of the financial system which has grown rapidly in the last decade - hold trillions of pounds in their funds. But not all of this money is in what's known as liquid assets. You can't quickly sell these investments to generate cash. 3/
Read 9 tweets
25 Feb 19
So, now the media circus has largely moved out of town, feels like a good time for a thread on Brexit, Swindon, and just how big a hit losing Honda will be. 1/
I know the town, and I was sent to cover the story not of the wider car industry in the UK, but those of the people affected by the job losses. Many voted leave. And guess what: not a single leaver I encountered would change that vote, job loss or no. 2/
One woman whose husband works for a local supplier said she realised that Brexit was a factor in the decision from Honda. But it was about a grander principle than jobs for her family - "For me it was a case of being independent and looking after our own people first." 3/
Read 14 tweets
14 Dec 18
The biggest #Brexit fig you haven't heard of: £45 trillion. This is the value of a bunch of financial contracts - called derivatives. These are at risk because the EU hasn't confirmed they will be recognised after March 2019. UK has. What's a derivative contract? Well...1/thread
Like all contracts it’s a legally enforceable deal. This kind is a way for a company to manage risk. They cover lots of financial areas like bonds, mortgages and currencies. They are often also called futures contracts or swaps. 2/
Here’s a futures eg: I’m need a load of copper two years from now, but I’m worried the price will go up. I buy the option to get several tonnes of the metal in 2021. I agree with another company that I will pay a set value now, and lock it in. I can budget accordingly. 3/
Read 11 tweets
7 Nov 18
Thread on Trump, trade wars and midterms: Lots of people understandably interested in what the election result might mean for the escalating trade war/US protectionism. Here's what some economists/trade experts/politicos reckon 1/
Firstly, recent headline decisions on trade were made using executive powers. Trade with foreign nations is theoretically in Congress’ scope but much of that power has been ceded to the exec. Has little recourse to stop say tariffs based on national security concerns 2/
Backing/opposition to admins’ trade policy so far has been a matter of ‘parochial issues rather than partisan issues’ says one econ. Dems might still have some ties to lab unions, some Reps back free trade, but it’s really about who loses/wins economically in a pol’s backyard 3/
Read 9 tweets

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