Share this page!

Laura Rozen Profile picture
Twitter logo
19 Nov, 20 tweets, 3 min read
sobering & insightful @CFTNI event on Russia/Ukraine. hope someone gets WH a transcript. George Beebee and Dmitry Suslov remarks in particular since bit at odds with a lot of commentary in dc on how to try to deter escalation. M. Kofman: what happens when US & Russia can’t agree
all the speakers agree Russia is not bluffing. Kofman: only so many times can threaten to invade ukraine
future conflict on much larger scale…what ldrship signalling, conflict that involves a substantial part of UKR, encircle UKR mil & force new political agreement, trash Minsk
Dmitry Suslov (not verbatim/check trnscrpt): Russia does not perceive Ukraine as part of Russia sphere of influence...Ukraine w/its current borders, pop'n, will not accept becoming part of sphere of influence in Russia. Russia would prefer Ukraine neutral. Not anti Russia. ...
Suslov: A country in between. Russia wants Ukraine to be a country in between. Not necessarily in Russian orbit, not in NATO orbit. ..
Again, from Russia perspective, if west pressures Ukraine enough, if NATO proclaims door closed, Ukraine will change course,...
Ukraine/Russian relations will normalize
George Beebe: Russia probably a month or 2 away from having everything in place to do that. don't think that is a bluff. don't think Russians actually want to invade Ukraine. Part of reason their rhetoric so sharp, Putin speech to Russia MFA yes., West not taking us srsly on this
Beebe: Russians don't want to see their red lines crossed on this. prefer to see a way their red lines not crossed. US also does not war over ukraine...but despite fact both sides don't want war, not optimistic. ...
Beebe says he thinks US incorrectly looks at situation as akin to WWII--where lesson learned is you don't appease aggressors-- but he thinks it is more like WWI. Us believes declaring irconclad support for Ukraine and providing training/support will show Russia we are serious.
Beebe: I think situation is a lot closer to WWI. Where we could get into a spiral of action and reaction that produces a conflict that neither side wants. US rhetoric increases chance of conflict, not decreases.
Beebe: this is solvable problem... one we can mange if show some dexterity, mix of resoluteness and willingness to be (more flexible). [please check transcript, not verbatim]
Dmitry Suslov: What Russia is trying to do is deliver a message, wants West to hear this message and take it into account. Russia believes West so far has not.
Message: Russia is profoundly dissatisfied with Western, primarily American policy vis a vis Ukraine.
Suslov: dissatisfied at: 1) apparent support for intensification of Ukrainian attempts to evaporate Russian influence. 2) western support for intensification of Ukraine efforts to sabotage Minsk agreement.
3) intensification of US/Ukrainian, NATO/Ukrainian military/technical/defense cooperation, which Russia regards as bringing Ukraine to NATO through the backdoor, even without providing Art. 5 guarantee. set up a permanent military presence in Ukraine, Black Sea.
Suslov: these three aspects of Western behavior are completely unacceptable for Russia.
Suslov: thus, I think a summit between Putin & Biden would be really important. US Russia relations largely depend on whether Putin & Biden are able to elaborate a mutually acceptable modus vivendi, common understanding of red lines.
Suslov: if they don't....a negative scenario becomes more realistic, because Russia does not agree with current developments.
George Beebe, summarizing suslov: Russia does not expect Ukraine to become a pro western country. What Russia wants to ensure instead is Ukraine is not anti Russia...neither in the Russia or Western/NATO orbit, removed as a battleground for geopolitical conflict.
Beebe: If true, think this is something the US ought to pursue ...as potential best avenue
more on this issue including link to transcript of Putin's remarks to the Russian foreign ministry yesterday ->
thread from yesterday on CFR event with Russia experts Fiona Hill and Andrea Kendall-Taylor

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Laura Rozen

Laura Rozen Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @lrozen

Laura Rozen Profile picture
18 Nov
Fascinating , somewhat ominous CFR event with Fiona Hill and Andrea Kendall-Taylor. Both think Putin's multiple vectors of pressure --on Ukraine, energy, shutting down Normandy talks--may be aimed at getting to the table with US for some sort of more comprehensive settlement
Hill also said more reasons to think Putin will probably act on Ukraine than not, narrow window of opportunity to try to deter
Hill, noting Russia invasion of Georgia in summer of 2008 was when China was last hosting the Olympics, wonders if we can prevail on the Chinese to possibly suggest to Russia not to do offensive on Ukraine when China hosting Olympics this February.
Read 13 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
18 Nov
🧵Political directors of UK, France, Germany, US Iran envoy Rob Malley, GCC, Jordan, Egypt met in Riyadh today on regional security situation, inc. Iran actions, per press statement. E3/US “welcomed our regional partners‘ efforts to deescalate tensions & promote dialogue in reg’n
“They discussed Iranian destabilizing activities in the region, including the use and transfer of ballistic missiles and UAVs that have led to attacks against regional partners...” 2/
“They underlined that enhanced regional dialogue & a return to mutual compliance with the JCPoA would benefit the entire Middle East, allow for more regional partnerships & economic exchange, with long-lasting implications for growth and the well-being of all people..inc.in Iran.
Read 4 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
17 Nov
New from me: much still unclear about Iran position going into resumed talks, diplomats suggest diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio…
One key question where there is still uncertainty, one official described, is whether Iran expects to pick up the talks where they left off after six rounds of talks in June, start talks from scratch, or something in between. diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio…
despite a flurry of maximalist-sounding public statements , Iran holding cards close to the vest on the details of what its position actually will be, diplomats suggested diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-positio…
Read 4 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
14 Nov
🧵This part of the interview with the head of the American Foreign Service Association Eric Rubin on Ted Cruz and others blocking the filling of ambassadorships and State Dept positions really stood out: “The other problem is our role in the world is different. 1/
“When I joined 36 years ago, we basically ran the world in competition with the Soviet Union, but we were unquestionably the leader. And in some ways, we still do but definitely not the way it was then, unquestionably not. And it's a different world, and it's harder. 2/
“And in some ways, it's definitely not the same job that people signed up for. But it's still not only as important as ever, I think it's more important right now when we have to fight for our interests and our country's place in the world.”
Read 5 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
13 Nov
🧵”historians and those who study democracy say what has changed has been the embrace of violent speech by a sizable portion of one party...

In effect, they warn, the Republican Party is mainstreaming menace as a political tool.”
“even with the former president largely out of the public eye and after a deadly attack on the Capitol where rioters tried to overturn the presidential election, the Republican acceptance of violence has only spread.”
“Notably few Republican leaders have spoken out against violent language or behavior since Jan. 6, suggesting with their silent acquiescence that doing so would put them at odds with a significant share of their party’s voters.”
Read 14 tweets
Laura Rozen Profile picture
12 Nov
🧵Asked if he was requiring the Vienna talks to go back to the start, he said: “What is important is not from where we started, but..that we achieve a deal that has practical results for the parties. Our main objective is to remove the illegal sanctions that they have imposed on
“the Iranian nation in breach of UN resolutions. Any sanctions in breach of the JCPOA imposed by President Obama and President Trump have to be lifted. That is the agreement set out the JCPOA.”
pres. Obama? really hard to know what he means
just watching a snippet of his interview with amanpour, was also depressed by how hard, through translation, it is to know what he is saying. and imagining how much harder it will be when the US and Iran will not even be in same room.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @lrozen has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @lrozen!

Read all threads by @lrozen

:(