A worrying week. Covid-19 infections in France almost doubled (an 83.8% increase) to an average of 16,066 a day. New cases have now been 20,000+ for 3 days in a row. The Fifth Wave is here in a big way – and likely to stay until the New Year.
1/10
The Fr government still insists there are no plans for new lockdowns, curfews or other harsh restrictions. It is, however, expected shortly to open 3rd or booster vaccinations to over 40’s and maybe (like the US) to all-comers 6 months after a 2nd jab. 2/10
How to explain the new wave, despite high levels of vaccination? Colder weather; more indoor living; complacency; eroding vax protection; the tenacity of the Delta variant, which is now virtually 100% of cases in Fr/the EU.
3/10
The rise in cases is now pushing up acute cases/deaths. Cases in acute care are 1,353, compared to 1,182 and 1,089 in recent weeks. Deaths in hosp are 46 a day, compared to 34 last week. The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7days – is back over 100 at 132.
4/10
The French health authority H.A.S. recommended yesterday that 3rd or booster jabs – open to over 65’s and the vulnerable but extended to over-50’s from next week – should now be thrown open to over-40’s. The six-months-since-a -2nd jab rule would still apply. 5/10
Interestingly, the H.A.S, has doubled down on its ruling – a French exception – that Covid recoverees only need one dose of vaccine. It now says that anyone who had the virus should get NEITHER a 2nd NOR a 3rd jab – unless they were infected after they were vaccinated. 6/10
There has been an increase in 3rd jabs since Macron announced that they would become a condition of the health pass for over-65’s. They are now running at 170,000+ a day. Over 5.2m people, incl. 4.3m over-65’s, have had a 3rd jab. BUT 2m eligible people have yet to bother. 7/10
France has been slower than some to grasp the importance of booster jabs – just as it was slow to get its original vax programme off the ground. Big announcements are likely soon. The Health Pass “weapon” will probably be extended to 3rd jabs for the over 50’s - and beyond
8/10
1st vax shots have crept up to 51,674,072 – 76.6% of the pop and 89.3% of those eligible (ie all over 12).. But Fr is still lagging on the v elderly. Only 86.9% of over-80’s are 1st-vaxxed. Half a million are unprotected – mostly, at this stage, because they don’t want to be
9/10
Hang in there.
10/10
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Weekly French Covid Thread
No more talk of ripples or wavelets. The fifth wave of Covid-19 infection is here – although still weak in France compared to Austria, Germany or NL. New cases in Fr averaged 8,739 in the last week, compared to 6,592 a week ago – a 32.5% increase.
1/10
The health minister, Olivier Véran, said on Wed that it “looked like the 5th wave” of the pandemic was upon us. He thought that it could be contained. As yet, Fr has no plans for new restrictions, unlike NL (curfews on shops/bars etc) or Austria (lockdown for the unvaxxed) 2/10
Last Monday President Macron made booster shots for the over 65s a requirement of the health pass from 15 Dec. There since has been a stampede by non 3rd-vaxxed oldies – up to 200,000 jabs a day, double last week. There are still, however, circa 1.5m non-boosted over 65’s. 3/10
Non-fish people look away. Here is my reply to a dishonest kettle of fish dumped on Parliament yesterday by the British government which purportedly “clarified” numbers at the heart of the UK-French dispute about fishing licences. 1/11
Lord Frost, @DavidGHFrost, tweeted that for “full transparency” the government was “setting out full and authoritative data” on which licences had been issued and which ones refused. The presentation was as transparent as the mud at the bottom of the English Channel. 2/11
First, that old sea serpent – the claim that UKG has issued 98% of licences requested by EU governments (see below). This is achieved by leaving out all 286 French requests for licences in Jersey/Guernsey waters (ie not technically in “UK” waters but at the heart of the row) 3/11
There is confusion about the number of missing French fishing licences at the centre of the greatest Franco-British spat since 2003 (or maybe since 1898 or, some stubborn historians insist, 1066). Here is a brief attempt to crunch the stats. 1/6
Having collated different sources (others are available), here is my best guess at the state of play.
Licences asked for by 🇫🇷 361
Given permanently 148 (41%)
Temporarily 113 (31%)
Missing 100
2/6
This breaks down as follows:
Jersey (for Norman and Breton boats): 113 issued, 49 temporary and 55 missing.
Guernsey (for Norman and Breton boats): 64 temporary.
England (for Pas de Calais boats): 35 issued, 45 missing.
3/6
For the first time in weeks, Covid cases in France are creeping upwards. Numbers remain very low. Is this a blip or the start of the new colder weather wave, or ripple, forecast by experts?
1/10
The graphs by @nicolaberrod show how cases and incidence rate (tdi) have bottomed out and started to climb. At 44.9, the tdi is still below the alert threshold of 50 (cases/per 100,000 people/7 days.) Cases are 4,656 a day, up 11% in a week. But there were 6,099 yesterday. 2/10
Is Fr like the UK, heading into a new C19 surge? The graph below shows how Britain – which shed more distancing measures – remained at a higher level of infection since the summer. It also had more acute cases/deaths. Will health pass/mask wearing continue to protect Fr?
3/10
Weekly French Vaccination Thread
Minimal service this week because there isn't much to report. The pandemic is melting; vaccinations are trickling along but have reached v high totals. From now on I will merge my 2 weekly threads into 1, on Wed, covering pandemic/vax stats. 1/5
First vaccinations are down to 40,000 a day. Many vaccination centres are closing. The 1st jab total has reached 50.5m – which is 75% of the entire pop. and over 88% of adults. The numbers creep up daily but it’s going to be tough to reach 5m or so stubbornly unvaxxed adults 2/5
The 3rd jabs for the elderly/fragile have reached over 1m people. Complete vaccinations are now scarcely behind 1st jabs. Using an updated total for the Fr. population (67.4m), these are @nicolasberrod’s calculations of vax %'s for a) total pop; b) plus 12s; and c) adults. 3/5
I delayed the thread today in the expectation of big news from the health defence council under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. In the event, a decision on whether to suspend the “health pass” in low Covid départements was postponed. 1/10
From 4 October – ie Friday week – mask-wearing in primary schools and colleges (middle schools) WILL end in départements where the incidence rate is under 50 (about 40 out of 100 départements at present, shown green on the map). So will limits on numbers in public venues. 2/10
However, the Health Defence Council (ie Macron) decided today that, even in these areas, it was too early to suspend the health pass (which limits fun/long distance travel to those double vaccinated, recently tested negative or recovered from Covid). 3/10