Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid Thread

For the first time in weeks, Covid cases in France are creeping upwards. Numbers remain very low. Is this a blip or the start of the new colder weather wave, or ripple, forecast by experts?
1/10

The graphs by @nicolaberrod show how cases and incidence rate (tdi) have bottomed out and started to climb. At 44.9, the tdi is still below the alert threshold of 50 (cases/per 100,000 people/7 days.) Cases are 4,656 a day, up 11% in a week. But there were 6,099 yesterday. 2/10

Is Fr like the UK, heading into a new C19 surge? The graph below shows how Britain – which shed more distancing measures – remained at a higher level of infection since the summer. It also had more acute cases/deaths. Will health pass/mask wearing continue to protect Fr?
3/10

Since January (see graph in 3/10), the Fr epidemic has trailed a few weeks behind the Beta and Delta variant roller-coaster in the UK – but always at a lower level. My prediction (fwiw) is that this will happen again. Fr cases will rise but not so sharply as in the UK.
4/10

So far the rise in C19 cases, effecting 30 dépts including some v rural ones like Lozère, has not pushed up acute cases/deaths. They continue to fall. Cases in acute care were 1,051 last night (1,164 a week ago). Deaths in hospl are averaging 30 a day, after 37 last week. 5/10

Some better news. France last night reached 51m first vaccinations. The vax campaign is trickling along at 34,000 1st jabs a day (plus about 50,000 2nd jabs and 50,000 3rd or booster jabs). Some people hate me making comparisons with the UK but…6/10

E. Macron announced the health pass on 12 July (making fun/long distance travel dependent on full vaccination/recovery from Covid/a recent negative test). Since that date, 15,000,000 French people have been 1st jabbed. In the UK in the same period the figure was 3,400,000. 7/10

Before you all shout…Yes, the UK was already at nearly 46m 1st jabs on 12 July. Its rapid early roll-out undoubtedly saved many lives. But the UK has been going very slowly since the summer and falling behind many EU countries (now 1.7m 1st jabs behind France). 8/10

There are differing versions of vax/population numbers in Fr. Using the higher figures, I calculate 1st vax %’s as:
Total pop (51m out of 67.4m)75.6%
Over-12’s (51m/58m) 87.9%
Adults (47.3m/52.9m) 89.4%
9/10

Another piece of news. Following a scare in Scandinavia about very rare but serious side effects on young people, the French health advisory body has recommended that Moderna should no longer be used for booster doses (but can still be used for jabs 1 and 2)
Hang in there
10/10