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John Lichfield

22 Sep, 11 tweets, 3 min read

Weekly French Covid thread

I delayed the thread today in the expectation of big news from the health defence council under President Macron’s chairmanship this morning. In the event, a decision on whether to suspend the “health pass” in low Covid départements was postponed. 1/10

From 4 October – ie Friday week – mask-wearing in primary schools and colleges (middle schools) WILL end in départements where the incidence rate is under 50 (about 40 out of 100 départements at present, shown green on the map). So will limits on numbers in public venues. 2/10

However, the Health Defence Council (ie Macron) decided today that, even in these areas, it was too early to suspend the health pass (which limits fun/long distance travel to those double vaccinated, recently tested negative or recovered from Covid). 3/10

Such a suspension is still “under consideration” said the govt spokesman, Gabriel Attal. Some in govt (including Macron) had been tempted to suspend the health pass in low-covid areas now. Others (led by health minister Oliver Véran) wanted to wait. 4/10

The health pass (which has been a huge success in getting 14m extra French residents 1st-jabbed since 12 July) is due to expire in November. The government has asked parliament to extend it – while considering suspending it in some places. Confusing?
5/10

Some critics said so. They said this would send mixed messages to the resolutely unvaxxed. Also that Macron was trying to have his political-electoral gateau (suspending the pass for some) while keeping his health caution (extending the pass on the statute book). 6/10

@Nicolasberrod

Otherwise….all the news is positive. Cases and incidence rate are still falling rapidly. Acute care and deaths are stable (see @Nicolasberrod graphs for details).
At this time last year we were heading into a second lockdown. Not this time – thanks to vaccination. 7/10

Though now 1st-vaccinating only a trickle of around 50,000 a day, France has crept up to 50,150,000 first jabs. This is 74.4% of all French people and 88% of adults. 51m by the end of Oct? Time to suspend the health pass in low Covid depts then? On verra. 8/10

On the other hand…Some experts still warn that France is likely to see another surge of Delta cases and increased mortality/ pressure on hospitals in Nov/Dec because a) the weather will turn bad b) a great number of over 80s’s (about 15%) are still unvaccinated. 9/10

Hang in there. 10/10

Monday week...

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More from @john_lichfield

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

25 Aug

Weekly French Covid thread
France has overtaken UK in 1st vaccine doses; a 3rd booster dose for over 65’s and the vulnerable is likely from Sept; cases in the 4th or Delta wave are falling but deaths/acute cases are still rising. 1/12

Another development is that HAS, the French health advisory body, has advised that the Janssen 1-dose vaccine is insufficient. A 2nd Pfizer/Moderna dose is needed. The government is likely to agree – meaning that 800,000 people are no longer considered fully vaxxed. 2/12

How and when the J&J recipients will be recalled is unclear. As of last night, the official Fr figures showed 42,040,493 people has been fully vaccinated – overtaking the UK fully-vaxxed total. That figure will now have to be revised downward by 800,000. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

23 Aug

Summary of an electric Tour de France.
We did 1,742k's or 1,082m's in 8 days (incl a non-driving day) - almost all on N and D roads. Electricity (incl an estimated Eur3 at home and a top-up at a friend’s) cost Eur62.94. In our former diesel car that would have cost Eur 250. 1/8

The cost of charging varies absurdly. The most expensive by far was Eur 21.21 for 27.245 kwh in 80 mins at a Corri-Dor borne at an Intermarché supermarket in Limoges.
Lesson: avoid supermarkets unless they are free. Avoid private providers. Go for the publicly-run “bornes”. 2/8

As a comparison we got 21.969 kwh for Euros 4.84 from a publicly-run borne in Saumur on the Loire. We got 14.808 Kwh for Eur 3.30 from a public borne in Saint Antonin de Nobleval in Tarne et Garonne. No other charge cost more than Eur 9.74. 3/8

Read 8 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

14 Aug

Weekly French vaccination thread.
A slower week for needles in arms - 242,303 1st jabs a day, substantially down on last week. France is, however, still on course to hit 50m 1st shots by the month's end. The Fr total of 1st jabs is now just over 46m –only 1.1m behind the UK.
1/12

Protests against the health pass will continue across France today for a 5th Saturday. The government expects the number of marchers to grow slightly from last week’s 237,000. Those (like me) who predicted that the protests would shrivel in August have been proved wrong.
2/12

It’s difficult to say what will happen to such a bizarre alliance of the thoughtful, the dotty, the sincere and the cynical - far-left, far-right, anarchists, fundamentalist Cathos, anti-semites, conspiracy nuts and apolitical opponents to limits on personal freedoms. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

11 Aug

Weekly French Covid thread

The flattening of the Delta wave of Covid in France (earlier than expected) is confirmed this week – in all but the overseas départements, especially Guadeloupe and Martinique in the Caribbean, where it’s raging out of control. 1/8

Guadeloupe and Martinique – largely because of deep, cultural resistance – are much, much less vaccinated than Metropolitan France (21% first-jabbed, compared to 81%). The one (low vax) helps to explains the other (high cases) – except in the closed minds of anti-vaxxers.
2/8

Here are 2 maps of European France published in recent days which make (it seems to me) the same point. The one, from Covidtracker, shows, in dark, the départements with highest C19 incidence rate. The other, a study for the state insurance system, shows high/low vax rates. 3/8

Read 8 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

7 Aug

Weekly French vaccination thread.

A reasonably good week for the Fr. vaccination programme – an average of 330,022 first jabs a day, down on last week but excellent for August and still nearly double the rate before Macron announced the “health pass” on 12 July. 1/8

Protests against the health pass will continue across France today. It will be a test of the staying power for the disparate protesters. Will they be able to maintain or increase last week’s 200,000 (all Fr) turnout? Or will a) the holiday and b) the rain dampen their ardour? 2/8

The Conseil Constitutionnel has approved, with small tweaks, the health pass and legal compulsion on health workers to be vaxxed by 15 Sept. From Mon access to bars/restos/long-haul transport etc is limited to those with a recent neg test/recovery from C19/or full-vaccination
3/8

Read 8 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

4 Aug

Weekly French Covid thread

The upward curve of new cases – almost all Delta variant now - has flattened for the 1st time since late June. Hospital admissions, acute cases and deaths are surging but that reflects the boom in infections in previous weeks.
1/12

Overall, it’s good news. Imagine you’re on a beach on a calm day. Breakers are coming ashore because of a gale yesterday. If new cases have truly peaked (still unclear), the 4th wave in Fr. may be less dramatic than feared. This seems to match the pattern in UK, NL, P, Sp.
2/12

New cases in the last 7 days averaged 21,788, after 19,436 last week. Cases had previously been doubling weekly. The incidence rate (IR) nationwide is stable at 225 (cases per 100,000 people in 7 days). The IR in 20-somethings – previously calamitous – has fallen sharply. 3/12

Read 12 tweets

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