Thread by @RALee85

Some context for this graphic from the Ukrainian MoD. BTG=battalion tactical group. A BTG is a combined-arms unit typically with 700-900 troops. Russia has 168 permanent readiness BTGs in total, which means ~1/4 of Russia's BTGs are currently near Ukraine.
militarytimes.com/flashpoints/20…

According to the Ukrainian MoD, there were 53 there in April and 51 in September during the Zapad 2021 exercise in Belarus and Russia's Western Military District, which was ~1/3rd of Russia's BTGs. The BTG figure includes motorized rifle, tank, naval infantry, and VDV units. 2/

The graphic also shows 16 fewer ships in the area than April. Russia sent 2 Ropucha landing ships from both the Northern and Baltic Fleets then and ~15 boats from the Caspian flotilla, including 3 patrol boats and 8 landing craft. Thus, most of these ships have likely left. 3/

I've seen some people suggest the lower BTG figure compared to April suggests an invasion is less likely. Much of the heavy units/equipment is now prepositioned near Ukraine. You can reinforce this force on short notice with lighter VDV units to get the BTG figure back to ~50. 4/

And US and Ukrainian officials are saying they think a significant escalation is likely to occur in January or February. If Russia does decided to escalate, they will try to hide the final reinforcements, but much of the other preparation has already occurred. 5/