I'll always be grateful to the Ethereum ecosystem for the opportunities its granted us since we started. I was getting triggered by a small subset of ppl, and need to respect that they do not represent the larger community.
Do want to remind ppl that in 2019 the pt of DeFi was to bank the unbanked. And that in 2016 many Ethereans criticized Bitcoin for $0.05 fees. Fast fwd to now and huge amts of users are shut out, their funds stuck onchain, etc. Monthly user count similar to 2017.
It costs $2k to buy a domain name today. Thousands to deploy contracts. Simple send of tokens costs $50. This is dystopian and should be treated as such--instead it is celebrated bc of the fee burn. This is a rentier mentality and I think it's dangerous.
I don't know what the solution is. But I do know for the millions of new users coming, they should not be shamed for going to other ecosystems. Neither should devs be shamed for building on them.
The main difference in thesis vs May this yr is I thought we would have strong ux composable scaling via ORU by now. Now I feel this is uncompetitive vs altL1, despite having similar security tradeoffs. The strongest L2 product is dydx on starkware. Hope to see more of this.
I think both Bitcoiners and Ethereans have too much nostalgia for the past. The pt of crypto is offer new generations similar opportunities and freedom, not to ask them to bow down and pay us rent, or to marvel at how early we were.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
For me the biggest counterpoint to "everything bubble" is we are in secular K-shape recovery. What they don't teach in school is DCF analysis has some assumptions about the structure of businesses themselves; that they grow in initial phase and then stop at a terminal growth rate
If you think about it, DCF analysis will force you into buying every value trap bc its cash flows look cheap. Conversely it forces you to miss every good network effect asset, bc its growth rate eclipses all reasonable estimates by reasonable analysts, including bulls
We are entering the golden era of investing in network effects, of which sound money / smart contract protocols + applications / mimetic revolutions (NFT, metaverse, memes) are the most clear opportunities
Introducing Tranchess tranchess.com today, a Tokenized Asset Management & Derivatives Trading protocol in which 3ac is one of the seed investors, along w/ @binance, @TheSpartanGroup@LongHashVC
The Tranchess team are intellectual powerhouses w/ strong tech+finance backgrounds, and located across several continents. @DcKingT Danny Chong, co-founder resides in Singapore currently
Rather than farming in a dual-asset (BTCB-USDC) pool, users can choose to stake one or both of the single-asset pools - avoiding impermanent loss. If you are holding BTC, create the Queen token. If you are holding USDC, create the Bishop token
This so-called "reorg attack" is basic strategy and has been known for yrs
It's a defense, a way to "mark as theft," there's no "rollback," no coordination w/ miners required
This impacts no other transactions that are happening meantime, causes no hf
Hacker could re-bribe ofc, leading to bidding war. So you could say post-block rewards, most of hacked value will accrue to miners (vis a vis that bidding war)
We will likely see ppl build out tools to estimate a safe # of confirms required based on the BTC amt of the TX
I do think it's an exercise in using precise language. It came across to many as "brb, reorg-ing BTC atm" which triggered many ppl's sense of disgust and was a call to arms to defend immutability. Yet there's plenty of Bitcoiners who understand that this is just how PoW works
Since 1/1/2013, only two TA strategies (MACD and Exponential MA) have outperformed Buy & Hold.
Since 1/1/2014, various MA strategies have outperformed. 2015 start date looks similar.
The worst strats since 2013 are KBand, RSI, CCI, BB, Stoch. Down since BTC was $13.30!
Bad TA is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.
Look how bad RSI style strategies are for crypto relative to people's insistence on using them.
For ETH since Feb 2018, even though Buy&Hold is the absolute worst strategy, KBand/BB/RSI are pretty close behind.
Trend-following sounds easy but is psychologically contrarian.